How Hot Is The Real Estate Market? Example Of A 30% Overbid

how hot is the real estate market

Remember the $1.69 million three bedroom, two bathroom condo I used as an example in “How To Correctly Value And Analyze Property“? I forecast it would go for $1.85 million. 2553 Greenwich has a fantastic view of the Bay, but it doesn’t have a dedicated entrance, and it’s on three floors after walking up a flight of stairs.

I figured the property could easily reach $1,000/sqft in several years, or $2 million due to the view and upward trajectory of the SF real estate market. It turns out my estimate of $1.85 million was just wishful thinking of what I’d like to pay. A friend’s friend bid $2 million for the place cash and LOST! Just think about that for a minute. Someone was willing to pony up $300,000 above asking and still got a big fat rejection!

The only people who have $2 million cash liquid are those with net worths of at least $5 million if not much, much more. Of course someone with “only” a $2-3 million net worth fully invested in the stock market could just liquidate instead, but that’s highly unlikely. The multi-millionaires I know coincidentally follow two main Financial Samurai rules: 1) They don’t spend more than 1/10th of their gross income on cars, and 2) No one asset class makes up more than 50% of their net worth. They are highly diversified.

Lessons Learned From Not Selling My House

San Francisco Bay Area Home Price ChartsBack in the summer of 2012 I decided to test my house on the market to coincide with the Facebook IPO. (Should I Sell My House As Facebook Goes Public?) Although I didn’t want to sell my house, I was in a peculiar stage in my life where I was just coming off my WARN Act income after leaving my job of 11 years. With the great unknown ahead and a recovery in the housing market, maybe, just maybe I could entice a newly minted Facebook millionaire to buy my house for top dollar. With the cash proceeds I’d immediately fly to Vegas and bet it all on black to double my money! Just kidding.

My realtor was a tennis friend of mine who hounded me for literally a year to give him the listing. Because I was so reluctant to sell, I basically told him to list 5%-8% above the market hoping that my house would either not sell or I’d find an avid buyer and have no choice but to sell. It’s always a good idea to underprice your house in a hot market to create a bidding war. Overpricing is a buzz kill. The listing also gave me an excuse to finally paint my living and dining rooms I’d been putting off for years.

After about three and a half weeks on the market with several serious inquiries but no silly money I decided to pull the listing. My realtor begged me to keep the house up for a couple more weeks but I was sick and tired of the private showings. Deep down I continued to feel like selling at that time was a mistake given the recovering markets. But I also felt a little bad for my realtor given he spent so much time decorating and working on the marketing material. However, as soon as I thought about the six figure commission I’d have to pay, the guilt was replaced with disgust at the collusive pricing structure in the real estate industry.

Now that a year has passed, I can honestly say that I’m ecstatic to have kept my home. For starters, my house is my home where I plan to continue making great memories. Financially speaking, the real estate market in San Francisco has moved up anywhere from 8-30% depending on who you talk to due to a tightening labor market and continued low inventory. Prices are up about 12% nationwide YoY in April 2013 so the 8-30% range is in the ballpark.

This post will hopefully help homeowners who are thinking of selling or renters going through the process of buying in a recovering real estate market. Price gains should slow with the recent rise in interest rates, although you never know now that the herd is running in full force!

LESSONS FROM NOT SELLING A HOME

A Pricing Strategy To Maximize Rental Income And Minimize Turnover

San Francisco SkylineMy latest search for a tenant was not easy. After hosting six open houses over a one month period I’ve finally found the one who will hopefully stay for longer than one year, pay on time and take good care of the place. It’s a darn small world because her boss is a fellow tennis club member I see literally every week. He enthusiastically gave her a thumbs up so here’s hoping for the best!

The average search duration during my previous three changeovers took half as long. I attribute two reasons for the duration difference: 1) Pricing and 2) Pickiness. Over the past 10 years I’ve seen my net worth grow just like most of you. As a result, I’ve become more picky in choosing “the ideal tenant” because my rental property is decreasing as a percentage of my overall net worth. With such a decline comes a reduction in time I want to spend tending to this asset. Meanwhile, I raised my asking price by $400, equivalent to a 12.5% increase.

My first tenants were French citizens with no credit or rental history. I was a first time landlord back in 2005 who based my decision on gut and paystubs. They fortunately turned out to be terrific tenants who stayed for four years until they got married and decided to buy a place of their own. Perhaps I was lucky, or perhaps most tenants are simply honest to goodness people and being so thorough isn’t necessary.

With each subsequent tenant I’ve scrutinized just a little more. A minimum of 40X monthly rent for annual income and credit scores of over 720 are non-negotiable criteria now. The average credit score for a rejected mortgage applicant is 729 so I’m not far off. The one thing landlords need to realize, however, is that you can’t always get what you want. After the fifth showing I almost gave in by lowering my price, but figured out a win-win pricing strategy just in time.

MAXIMIZE YOUR RENTAL INCOME WHILE LOWERING TURNOVER

How To Correctly Value And Analyze Investment Property

SF Property BackyardUnlike stocks, there’s no easy way to ascertain the exact value of your current property or the property you plan to purchase. As a multi-property owner I’m glad there aren’t any ticker symbols jumping around every weekday because they are just a distraction. It’s all about buying, maintaining, and holding for as long as possible to build wealth when it comes to real estate.

Real estate currently makes up around 35-40% of my net worth where it will stay for the foreseeable future as I focus on entrepreneurial endeavors. The earnings that came from focusing on my career instead of chasing unicorns in the stock market was largely reinvested in real estate for diversification purposes.

In this article I’ll approach valuing property from an investor’s stand point. We’ll go through some big picture concepts as well as use a real life example to see whether we are making a good or bad investment. I think you’ll love this particular property I’ve picked. If you are already a homeowner, you’ll get to approach valuing your own property with as realistic an eye as possible.

VALUING PROPERTY – BIG PICTURE FUNDAMENTALS

How To Prevent Tenants From Abusing The Lease With Multiple Long Term Guests

Remodeling after tenant abuseWhen you book a hotel reservation the representative will ask for single, double, or multiple occupancy and charge accordingly. It’s the same idea when you rent out your property to prospective tenants. Those who plan to rent your property are written in the lease predominantly for legal purposes. Those who plan to stay in your property who are not on the lease are considered guests.

Sometimes your tenants will abuse the lease by having multiple guests stay for long durations of time. Of course having the girlfriend stay over for a couple nights a week or the parents visit for a couple weeks at a time is fine. However, where does one draw the line? Although restricting guests and their duration of stay is almost impossible to enforce, there has to be some language and understanding in the lease to prevent a rental from turning into a boarding house.

During my latest tenant search, I almost accepted two guys who would have fully taken advantage of the lease by having two to four guests all throughout the year. Here’s how things played out.

PREVENTING GUESTS FROM OVERSTAYING THEIR WELCOME