First Republican Debate Makes President Obama A Winner in 2012

Herman Cain

Herman Cain

The September 7th Republican Presidential Debate makes it absolutely clear that President Obama will get re-elected in 2012.  If Texas Governor Rick Perry, who denies science is the Republican candidate, he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning.  He used an executive order to force vaccinations on 12 year old girls for HPV?  Wow, isn’t that big government and the use of science?  What about parental rights?  I do agree with Perry’s statement that Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme simply because if you suddenly stop contributing, the whole system falls apart.  The problem with Perry is that he is too far right.

If Governor Mitt Romney is the Republican candidate, maybe the Republicans have a 30% chance of winning.  Mitt Romney is much more center with his belief in universal health-care and a desire to fix social security.  As the ex head of Bain Capital, and not a career politician, he has the experience of making an organization profitable.  Mitt clearly held his own and showed he’s a leader who believes in fixing things, instead of simply abolishing everything.  I don’t understand what people have against modern day Mormons.

Michele Bachmann had a solid night, but the moderators didn’t focus on her and she had no memorable stances.  She was very intelligent with all her responses, however it definitely seems like her star has fallen.  Newt Gingrich was the great senior statesman who lashed back at the moderators for trying to pit the Republican candidates against each other.  While former US Ambassador to China John Huntsman just seemed too arrogant with his finger pointing.  Rick Santorum was refreshing, but nobody knows who he is.  Ron Paul reminded me of John McCain, but angrier and more frail!

The most interesting candidate was Hermain Cain with his “999 plan”.  His proposal is for a 9% personal income tax rate, 9% capital gains tax, and 9% sales tax.  I thought it was brilliant when he said that ,”If 10% is good enough for God, 9% is good enough for the Federal Government!”  Isn’t GE paying 9% corporate tax on its billions in profit better than 0%?  Hermain also proposed employing the Chilean system to fix Social Security by providing a personal retirement account with an option to contribute.  Cain is a former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, and former Chairman of the Board of The Federal Reserve Of Kansas City.  It’s nice to see that he’s had a track record of serving in the private and public sector just like Mitt.

I was surprised there wasn’t more bickering and undermining between the Republican Presidential Candidates, to help rocket President Obama further.  That said, I still believe President Obama is a shoe-in to win a second term.  Even though he hasn’t passed much legislation or created any jobs since he became President, the fact of the matter is that President Obama is more likely to be viewed as the savior of the American public in crisis than any Republican candidate, even Herman Cain.

Readers, what are your thoughts on the debate?  Who do you think will win the Presidency in 2012 and why?

If you didn’t watch the debate, why not?  Isn’t this one of the most important things we need to follow given how weak our country is?

Which party and/or candidate do you think will be best for your personal financial health over the next 4 years?

If you would like to bet against me and Obama by choosing the field, please comment below and I’ll take you up on it!

Regards,

Sam

Sam started Financial Samurai in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis as a way to make sense of chaos. After 13 years working on Wall Street, Sam decided to retire in 2012 to utilize everything he learned in business school to focus on online entrepreneurship.

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Comments

  1. says

    >> I still believe President Obama is a shoe-in to win a second term.

    Do I sense a little rejection therapy there to get Republicans off their butts? ;)

    If you’re really confident, it might be worth making some money off of it on Intrade.

    >> If you didn’t watch the debate, why not?

    Because I was busy working, unlike some slackers around here!

    • says

      Not at all. If this is the best the Republicans have, they’ve really got no chance! I’ve actually got three bets against Obama haters now. If you’d like to bet too, let me know!

      To not watch the debate is to be a slacker of country!

  2. says

    I did not watch the debate for fact that I do not like politics. But I will say this…I hope Obama doesn’t get a second term. Why? Because I don’t think he deserves it. He just hasn’t proved anything to me as to why he deserves my vote. I’m not downgrading his efforts and the accomplishments Obama has achieved. But, for the fact that he hasn’t improved our economy all the much since the election, I don’t think he will be re-elected.

    Whatever which way our country decides to put in office, the US won’t be the financial power house it once was. But, I absolutely do love the 999 idea. Definitely would help our debt situation.

      • says

        That is a very good question lol!

        I know Obama has a real good chance at a second term, that was just my opinion on why I don’t think he should be re-elected. I heard on the radio the other day, that Obama wants to have illegal immigrants to have the right to vote! If that goes through, there is no doubt he will be in office.

        Anyways, to answer your question I believe Mitt Romney has the strongest run against Obama. He probably will lose votes for being Mormon, and that’s just hooey!!
        Because isn’t Obama Muslim?? to me, that is just ridiculous. I just hope Romney is the one running against Obama.

        • says

          Hmmm, illegal immigrants voting is a very contentious subject. Do you believe people who don’t pay Federal Income taxes should have the right to vote for candidates who want to raise income taxes on people who already pay income taxes?

          * Might have to start a new thread.

  3. says

    I only caught a few minutes of the debate and probably would have watched a little bit more but got distracted with a phone call and computer problems. I can’t take more than 30 minutes of politics a day anyway. I didn’t get to hear Cain speak but that 999 plan is intriguing and that really is a funny quote!

  4. David M says

    I did not watch the debate because:

    1) I do not watch television.

    2) I’m sure that I am going to vote for President Obama.

    Regarding it being important – I do not think you need to watch the debate to follow – I listen to podcasts about 6 hours a day and can pick up all I need to know from them.

    Regarding Social Security being a Ponzi scam – I agree 100%. However, I think its a Ponzi sceme that can be tweaked and can be made to continue to work. The problem with personal/private accounts in my opinion are many:

    1) what about the insurance part of Social Security – what happens if you die you with children or you become disabled at a young age.

    2) what about those that do not make that much money – they will not accumulate enough money to be able to retire on.

    3) what happens when people take out the money prior to retirement and/or deplete the fund prior to dieing.

    Regarding Herman Cain – I have head him on the radio and I am very intrigued by him. I see lots of merit to his 999 plan. I would love for all companies and individuals to pay the same amount of money on the same amount of income and HOPEFULLY this type of plan would do that. HOPEFULLY under this type of plan we would do away with all exemptions, deductions, loopholes, etc. You make x number of dollars non taxable – say $25,000 for married couple with no children and then tax everything else at 9%.

      • David m says

        Truth,

        I am anti American religion and for that reason alone I’m not very likely to vote for at the republicans. I absolutely will not vote for Perry.

        If someone else is the nominee – I have WAY more than enough time to see what they stand for.

        You do realize the vote is more than13 months from now!

        • says

          I guess that is a good point. Republicans seem to be so religious, it alienates a lot of people who might not follow their own religion, or be religious!

          All about the voters in the South and Bible Belt.

  5. says

    Agreed on Obama getting re-elected. If this is the Republican field, candidate Obama is going to wipe the floor with any of them. Except Ron Paul, but he’s got about as good a chance as a pack of fish sticks making it through a cat convention… or something like that.

  6. Phill Ashkettle says

    Sam,
    What planet are you on? The Republican debate last night, although most of it was an attempt by NBC to steer the discussion away from the economy and security to much more “important” subjects like the questioning of “science”, was a demonstration that this group is united in one important thing, displacing a failed leader. You comment that Obama is a “shoe-in” although he hasn’t passed much legislation or created any jobs! He pushed for and passed two legislative nightmares (Obamacare and Stimulus) which have placed out country’s financial future at risk and are grossly unpopular and ineffective. How can you say that spending nearly $1 trillion to stimulate an economy (or give money to his cronies) is not significant?

  7. says

    Even Sam is in on the mainstream media ignoring Ron Paul!

    Perry couldn’t complete a sentence last night, and it will be a disaster if he gets the nomination. Romney was solid. I still want and need a Ron Paul Revolution! I’m so sick of Keynesian bubbles and failed economic policies from both parties

    • says

      Ron Paul was SO disappointing! This was his chance to connect, but he looked angry, frail, and un-supportable. There’s a reason he’s not going to have an ant’s chance in a honey pit to get noinated!

      • Janna says

        Ron Paul has some good ideas, but when he implied last night that the market can regulate itself, I find that a little scary when it comes to air traffic control, safety, etc…. Consumers do need some protection that cannot be afforded by the big business it needs protection from! When big business is looking to cut corners to save money, we need someone else in charge of safety.

        • says

          Presidents don’t write laws. Congress writes laws. If you want small government, then the natural presidential choice is the presidential candidate that favors the smallest possible government, as he will veto the rest.

          That which gets vetoed goes to the Senate. If the issue is REALLY that big of a deal, then it can garner 2/3 of the vote and become law.

          His views on deregulation would never get through today’s legislative branches. However, his stance on military spending is a position which makes him most valuable. The US spends $700b a year on military, roughly $200-300b of which is on foreign wars. Kill off the foreign wars, as a President can actually do unilaterally, and anywhere from 20-30% of the current US deficit is gone the day of his inauguration.

          No other presidential candidate will end our foreign military spending. They’re all bought and sold to the highest bidder, and that is the military supply companies. If you’re serious about deficit reduction, small government, and an improved economy the best place to start cutting waste is in military adventurism.

  8. says

    Here’s the thing though, if Obama does get re-elected, it will not be for the same reasons he was elected in 2008. That time, he was elected based on hope and promise, on people believing that he could lead America to better times. He hasn’t done that in my opinion. But people are afraid that, as bad as it’s been under him, that the Republicans could actually do worse. So if he wins it will be out of fear.

    And, while the numbers might go in his favor in terms of votes, that’s really not a big win in my eyes.

    • says

      In America, you can fool some of the people all of the time. That is what makes this country great. People who voted for OBama on hope and change will vote for him as the savior the worse the economy gets. And they will vote for him as the savior the better the economy gets. It’s a win-win!

      • Marty Gum says

        How can you vote for someone in America that continues to push us towards a Euro-Socialistic state? Rules by proclamation, “knows” what is best for us whether we want it or not and forces it upon us, Spends trillions on a stimulus that for every job it created costs over $200,000, Spends trillions on a stimulus that only goes to party supporters, Spends trillions on a stimulus that bails out crooked banks and companies that should fail and then do fail after they get the money!!
        Get rid of the ruling class left wing liberals. Get rid of the Federal Reserve. Move to a fair tax, sales tax, 999 tax, just some tax that isn’t so damned biased towards those that the politicians are bowing to! They all have the same belief that John Kerry has when he said that, we can’t give tax breaks because the Government knows where to spend your money better than the private sector.
        I sit here and see what O is doing and wonder why his supporters are blind to it. Those in government believe they drive the economy and have forgotten that the private sector drives the economy in a Democratic Republic and not until we complete the metamorphosis to the failed economic systems of Socialism or Communism does that change.

        • Fin-Edu says

          Are you crazy!!! Prove to me right now that any socialist country is in a better standing that ours right now. Just one example…uhhh you cant find cant you. It is because goverment must not meddle with free enterprise, goverment is bureocracy, goverment stops the growth. The only function a goverment must have is to protect its citizens, no more than that. Regulation only for the sake of preventing corporate evil by the greedys but not control over the wealth.
          Hey! If people are poor thats their problem, find a way to get out of misery… I dont make big bucks, but darn If I as an inmigrant with just 1 year in the United States can make 30000+ a year without a degree; why cant the rest try to find a way to improve their situation. I hate that my hard earned money is taxed just for the sake of fair distribution.

          Many have built empires from dust, thats my hope , thats the beauty of the United States. If we keep regulating and controlling we will destroy the best country in the world. Blessed be the real USA!!!

        • logic says

          Marty Gum says: How can you vote for someone in America that continues to push us towards a Euro-Socialistic state?

          Back in 2006… “The Massachusetts health care insurance reform law, also known as “RomneyCare”, enacted in 2006, mandates that nearly every resident of Massachusetts obtain a state-government-regulated minimum level of healthcare insurance coverage and provides free health care insurance for residents earning less than 150% of the federal poverty level. ”
          Fast forward 4 years to 2010… “Romney opposed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, also known by “Obamacare” immediately following the March 2010 passage of it and it being signed by President Barack Obama, Romney attacked the landmark legislation as “an unconscionable abuse of power”…The new federal law was in many ways similar to the Massachusetts health care reform passed during Romney’s term…”

        • logic says

          In 4 years Romney went from the mastermind of universal health care to one of it’s biggest opponents, now that he is seeking to challenge president Obama for the presidency. Point is, nearly any politician will support/oppose any issue, ideal, legislation, etc. if the price is right. Period.

  9. says

    The 9-9-9 proposal is great; it’d take our corporate tax rates from one of the highest to the lowest. Multi-nationals love our tax code. Companies that operate in the US and claim income in the US simply don’t.

    If we were to go to 9% tax on corporate profits, you’d see slowing tax revenue for a few years as things shift, but the long-term growth would be phenomenal. The best way to reduce the value of the debt is to grow GDP. No better way. A 9% corporate tax would do that.

  10. says

    I really only care about 1 proposal from these candidates: how will you deal with an incompetent, do-nothing Congress that will be just as divided when you become President that it is now? Right, probably no better than Obama so I’ll just vote for the sane, sitting President. Thank you.

    Too bad Gary Johnson was excluded – could’ve talked up the FairTax.

  11. Pineview Style says

    “To not watch the debate is to be a slacker of country!”

    Yawn…. I guess I’m a slacker of country then….

    But seriously, I’ve watched enough of these debates and listened to them picked apart on the talk shows the next day to know that these are mostly about posturing. I’m sure that the various news outlets will have me caught up on the meat of the debate. From what I have heard so far, none of these guys/gals have really knocked my socks of yet except for Herman Cain. Herman Cain has some good ideas and I need to look into them a little more. Perhaps I’ll tune into Neal Boortz, since he is usually on his show….

    “If you didn’t watch the debate, why not?”

    I was probably either reading my favorite financial blog to gain financial solvency through ideas and wisdom or perusing through richsingles.com to gain financial solvency through love and gold digging….

  12. says

    Thanks for the recap! I didn’t watch the debate. Too busy dealing with baby and winding up the day. I’m 99% sure I’ll vote for Obama too so…
    The 999 proposal sounds interesting. The 9% sales tax is added on top of the state sales tax? It’ll still be lower than what we pay now.

  13. says

    Sam, I think we see eye to eye on politics. The Republicans have squarely positioned themselves as the anti-intellectual party by their strong endorsement of Rick Perry. He makes Bush 2 look like a Rhodes Scholar. But, it’s too early to assume that the majority of voters will see it that way. There are too many moving parts, and people can be swayed by a slick advertising campaign as much as the grim economic picture. I believe Obama deserves another term because of the crap he was dealt coming into office. I would watch out for new Republican entrants like Boehner, a more sensible Republican choice, to even up the race.

  14. says

    Sam –
    I’d have to agree with you on much of this debate. Despite people pitching global warming as a hoax, most people believe it’s happening and at least somewhat caused by humans. Even if some protections are taken and the believers end up being wrong, so what? However, if nothing is done and they end up being right, I’d rather not find out what happens.
    As for herman cain’s 999 plan, I think it’s crap. He’d more than double my sales tax rate (I dont know where joe lives, but holy cow they tax the crap out of him) and I’d end up paying more in income tax as well (I think – i’d have to dig up numbers).
    I think that no president will be best for my personal financial health in the next 4 years – I’ve got to do that all on my own. Sure, I’ll have to pay less taxes or deal with less services, but they cant make me save, nor can they make me spend. I’ll build my own personal financial health, thankyouverymuch

  15. says

    I did watch or listen to it. It may have been the first time I was able to listen to all the candidates. I think I was most impressed with Huntsman and some of Cain’s statements. If the Republicans want a chance in 2012, they need to come up with something better than this field of candidates. If Obama wins, what is the mandate? Maybe, it is just the Republicans are worse or we want a stalmate!

  16. says

    I can’t see Obama getting re-elected unless the unemployment rate starts dropping, and the economy starts to improve. The more time passes the less likely that is to happen. While I’m not super hyped up about any of the Republican candidates, quite frankly I think that any of them would be a huge improvement over Obama. He is in over his head, and all he can think of to do is either another failed mult-billion stimulus plan, or raising taxes on the rich – neither of which will get the economy going.

    All the polls lately are showing Obama with low and sinking approval rates, and generic republicans beating him in an election – with most of the republicans now in the race beating him..

    Unless there is some sort of October surprise before the election where the economy miraculously improves I don’t think he’ll get re-elected. He can’t continue blaming Bush for the economy forever and much of the blame will be laid at his feet come election time, as it should.

    • says

      The more the economy suffers, the great the people fooled in the first round will see him as a savior! Don’t you see Obama is hedged both ways?

      How much would you like to bet for charity? JT and Investor Junkie is in for $550, you?

  17. says

    Don’t know who Rick Santorum is? Put just his last name into a Google search bar and go! I remember how that came to be the top spot on Google as this happened when I was in high school…and I remember voting for that definition. Anyway, Google dude, Google.

  18. says

    I think and thought Romney was the strongest Republican Candidate last year, and I hope he wins the nomination this year.

    While I’m not sure of his chances of being elected, I do believe he would do a great job! In my opinion, he’s more of a middle of the road guy, and the middle classes should support him. Even if he is rich…

  19. says

    I agree Sam, Obama will likely win at this point. I still believe that the US people should lock up Obama and Romney in a room together (after they each consult with their parties). Whatever they decide on in terms of immediate action would be locked in. No more bickering or 24-7 news cycles to play into partisan hands.

    After his speech tonight, I thought Obama sounded very Presidential and sick of dealing with a ridiculous Congress. People have to remember that at the end of the day, the government simply can’t create truly original jobs. Even infrastructure spending is simply recycling tax dollars, even if the unemployment rate drops slightly. Only private business can create jobs, it’s ridiculous to keep yelling at the government to magically click their heels and produce another crop of Steve Jobs-spawned corporations ready to hire people with the wrong set of job skills for the modern economy.

  20. Mike Hunt says

    Sam,

    If it’s such a no brainer, will you take 2:1 bets for Obama losing, meaning you pay twice the bet if he loses.

    If you are that confident you should.

    -Mike

  21. MacroCheese says

    So wrong. Obama will NOT be re-elected:

    Colorado 45.2%%
    Florida – 45.8%
    Indiana – 43.9%
    Iowa – 47.5%
    Nevada – 47%
    New Hampshire – 41.3%
    North Carolina – 46.9%
    Ohio – 47.4%
    Oregon – 47.8%
    Pennsylvania – 46.3%
    Virginia – 46.6%

    Approval ratings in states carried by Obama in 2008 — these results are three months old and have certainly gotten worse since then.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/146294/Hawaii-Approving-Obama-States-Decline.aspx

  22. says

    I don’t know how sincere or effective Obama’s policies will be, but I do agree, when compared to other nut jobs (though Mitt Romney seems sensible and Ron Paul is disappointing), Obama seems like he’s got another shot.

      • says

        Ya I agree Sam. I think the best proposal I have come up with is make Obama and Romney (whom I agree is reasonable, with a good business background) meet with their parties for a day, and then lock them in a room. No one comes out until something is agreed to. Maybe give them each a deputy (say Boehner and Biden) as well. Whatever gets decided is binding no matter what the tea party or the crazy media wings of each party say. I’m sure it would make both parties absolutely crazy, and it would also certainly be what is best for the country in general.

  23. pyro says

    Why would you bash ron paul’s economic policies? He is the only candidate who predicted the housing bubble and the bigger bubble coming short.. Herman who? oh yeah lost in the wilderness

  24. Mike says

    I don’t really care if Ron Paul doesn’t have a shot at winning. Since I actually care about my principles I will be voting for Ron Paul for president. The man is willing to take unpopular positions from both sides of the aisle in order to save this country. He performed well in the debates in my opinion.

    Even if he doesn’t win I have my doubts about Obama winning reelection. If unemployment continues to be in the 8’s and 9’s (real unemployment is probably closer to 15%) he will be the first to win with such a poor number.

    • Jonathan says

      I completely agree with Mike.

      Living in California, I will make a statement and go with Ron Paul for president.

      If I lived in a swing state, I would be more likely to vote for Perry. I’m sure Perry is not the smartest guy, but I would take him of Obama any day.

      America is the largest, brightest, shining beacon of light in the world in terms of a free society and economy. I think Obama is unwittingly steering us into the dark waters of Socialism. I’m sure he has a good heart, but unintended consequences always arise when implementing large governmental policies.

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