$OEXA200R - Predicting the Stock Market!?
  • To give a bit of background on myself, my X factor went crazy about 2 years ago. I was in the market for a house, so rather than dollar cost averaging stocks, I kept my profits in cash. Luckily, I didn't miss the entire stock market run up as my 401k was majority in stocks. Having recently purchased a house, I'm sitting on too much cash and wanting to get my asset allocation back in order. My biggest fear, of course, is dumping my hard earned profits in the market at it's peak. I'm very familiar with the fallacy of trying to time the market, but I'm still having a hard time pulling the trigger. Anyway, enough about me.

    A few months ago, I stumbled on an article explaining the "Best Stock Market Indicator": http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    The idea is $OEXA200R (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) and three secondary indicators predict entry and exits in the market. Normally I would quickly dismiss this idea, but the charts are very convincing. Furthermore, there's an update: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Carlucci-Short-Update.php, showing we recently moved into the "untradeable" territory.

    If I hadn't been watching this indicator, I would be happily dollar cost averaging in the market, but this has given me caution. Is anyone familiar with $OEXA200R? Any thoughts on it?

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