There's Always A Bear Market Somewhere
  • Dear FSC,

    I will probably write a post on this sometime in the near future, but I'd also like to start a thread which highlights stocks, sectors, or countries at risk of imploding.

    Netflix and Tesla are immediate names that come to mind. I tried NetFlix streaming and frankly, it sucks. Not enough content to make it worthwhile. I was so disappointed. Tesla, who knows as now they have to prove their valuation.

    Bonds and REITs - Clearly at risk of getting hammered further with rising interest rates, which I don't think will rise that much more.

    Japan - Already saw a 20% correction, so perhaps it's safe. The runup since Fall 2012 has been incredible!

    What else?

  • Gold/Silver appear to be in bear mode right now and for the last 9 months or so.
  • Do you think it's a good time to buy silver? How much more do you think it will fall?
  • I think gold and silver have more room to fall and am personally staying away from them. When the stock market corrects though, they generally become good buys because of fear.
  • I see. Thank you for the insight. I thought it was pretty odd that the market was hitting new highs along with silver and gold. Generally they are inversely related. Newbies were buying in to all the media hype while veteran investors were buying gold and silver. We've seen both commodities tumble so I'm waiting for a market correction. I don't think it will be long before we see it.

    I've also seen very little to justify a 15k Dow. The media sure has a significant influence on confidence.
  • Nikkei getting destroyed down 5% right now 6/12. Be very careful as the bond yield spike contagion and yen strengthening spreading to the US. I wouldn't try and play hero this summer. Things could generally ugly wiping out the 1H gains.
  • On a personal note in Japan, I sold all my J-shares mid-May and am very happy about that. Have a 20% exposure as part of my wife's balanced index portfolio, and that's all I'm comfortable with at the moment.

    Would love to hear a case to be bullish on Japan, cause I can't see it myself!
  • @Sendaiben You can be our resident Japan expert! Where are you located? I used to visit Kobe and Tokyo a lot in the past. Perhaps get some of your Japanese investor friends to join theforum as well.
  • Yes indeed... with the international markets getting slammed, I'm now wondering about my 401K. I rebalanced it to 60% bonds/treasuries and 40% stocks. I am debating to go more bonds/treasuries and even the money market in the whole thing until everything calms down.

    It makes me a little nervous that I got into AGNC now even though I thought I got in at a good buy... I'm trying to be a studious investor, but I have to admit, right now I feel like a noob.
  • @FinancialSamurai I'm in Sendai :)

    Nowhere near an expert I'm afraid, I have only been investing for a couple of years and have all sorts to learn...
  • Ouch, markets got hammered today! I took advantage and bought into some more stocks. Hope it doesn't get even uglier this summer.
  • I hope it gets a lot uglier, for the next 10-30 years or so...

    Long, drawn out bear market would be great :)
  • @sendaiben What is your thought process for wanting to lose money for the next 10-30 years and perhaps your job?

    Are you planning on shorting the market?
  • I'm planning to buy index funds for the next 10-30 years. The cheaper the better... then a huge recovery just in time for retirement :)
  • Of course, I've only been doing this for a couple of years, so who knows. I am here to learn after all...
  • Now that the meltdown is happening, are you guys buying? Or has fear taken hold.

    It's always fun to say you'll buying when things are getting crushed until things get crushed!
  • Wish I would have bought, now that the market headed back up. That's the great challenge of investing - knowing when to buy when I'm afraid, and knowing when to sell when I feel like life is good. I have to think counter-intuitively.

    P.S. wish I would have bought CFP, a stock I was watching this morning...
  • The past few days have been some of my most active in months. I have been buying stuff up the past few days. Things might go down more and there might be better deals but I am happy with/confident in what I picked up. I would say I fear things continuing to fall.... but if they do I will just have to put more money to work!
  • @Tcap Share with us where you get your cash to invest. Is it from your paycheck, a cash fund, or from your cash holdings within your portfolio?

    I'm always curious when folks mention they will just buy more when the markets go down. Is there not an end to the amount of cash one has?

  • I have about 13K sitting in my Scottrade account (was 14.1K until I made some investing blunders). This is ready to deploy to any stocks I think are the right buy. I have all the cash because I have not legged in/out of stocks yet.
  • @jeremynoeljohnson Nice. Buying when things are falling apart is much harder done than said, and much harder than buying when things are just going up. It's fear and it takes guts!
  • I have $3-5k to invest every month (split between my wife's index portfolio and my dividend/speculative portfolio) -this is just over half our net monthly income.

    Enjoying the falls this week, hope they hold until next week.
  • @FinancialSamurai I find the opposite. I hate buying shares that have gone up -feels like I missed the gains. Much prefer to buy after a dip. Of course, I'm still only investing relatively small amounts of money, so maybe this changes when the numbers get bigger...
  • The vast majority of my cash is coming from my paycheck right now. My expenses are really low and my pay is fairly high for my age/area so it piles up quickly. I generally let it build up for a little bit while researching good companies to invest in to put it to work.
  • @sendaiben @Tcap What are some of the stocks you own right now that you are bullish on? Also, what do you consider to be a lot of money - 50K 100K, or more?
  • @JeremyNoelJohnson to be honest I don't know enough about any stocks to have an opinion on them -that's why the vast majority of my investments are in VT and BND (70/30 allocation). I also have a small but growing dividend portfolio, and my current roulette spin of RENN, based on FS's recommendation and a sense of curiosity.

    I would consider one year's savings to be a lot of money. This year we seem to be on track to save about $40k, so that would be a lot of money for me.

    I have made some bad mistakes with investing (like buying into a hedge fund recommended by a friend instead of going with my original index fund plan -in 2009) -ouch!

    Still, I feel like I am learning (and having fun) every day, and I figure I have plenty of time. I like my job and I've probably got 30-40 years of saving ahead of me (I'm 35). Plenty of time to learn some more and make many more mistakes!
  • I am bullish on EBIX at the moment. It has been beaten down quite a bit due to a merger with Goldman Sachs getting called off last week. They still are making money, and they announced a massive stock buyback program after things fell apart. I think it has a lot of room to move up.

    My benchmark for a lot of money is the cost of a lower end new car, 20-25k or so. I don't buy new cars, but for some reason this is how I think.

  • @Tcap Wow, EBIX certainly did take a beating - their financial earnings numbers all look great... Something to think about I think.
  • @sendaiben I am 35 as well - thanks for sharing, I feel in the same boat - still trying to learn and not make too many mistakes :)

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