Heads Up: Chinese Internet Stocks Are Gaining Momentum
  • Take a look at SINA, BIDU, and my favorite RENN. All moving up on good volume.

    Market adjusting to the idea of slowrr GDP growth rates. Chasing unicorns!

    10year yield also back down to 2.47% and IEF doing well. Niiiice.

  • Thanks for the RENN suggestion. Turns out buying 1,000 shares in at $2.81 was a good move for me (assuming I sell at some point and realize profit)

    As you say, "party on!"
  • Here hear :)
  • How long to keep Renn though? I have an incentive to sell by the end of the year (capital gains tax here is going up 10% in January) but don't want to be too hasty...
  • @sendaiben - that is the kicker. I could make 48 cents a share right now - $480 if I sell now, which for me is a great return. I've also got $AAPL, which has gone up from $396 to $430. I think there is a little more room to grow in the year, however, I've also noticed that in December, there seems to be a sell-off in stocks as prople realize profits or sell at a loss for tax purposes. I'm going to hold and see how things look in late November and decide then - hopefully before the crowd sells off.

    Sam made a good point about $RENN too - with the Twitter IPO next year, will that influence the stock price?
  • Are you guys buying or just holding at these prices?
  • Average price of the shares I've got was 2.84 -I'm happy to let that ride for now but not adding to it.
  • Looks like disappointing 2Q results for RENN.
  • Seems to be so - yesterday, I sold out of $RENN ($3.29) and $AAPL ($429.00) and it seems to have been a good move, particularly if $AAPL earnings are underwhelming on Monday. But if $RENN gets back to $2.80, I will likely get back in.
  • $RENN Up pretty big after hours today. Now will I kick myself for selling even though I made a nice profit?
  • @JNJ it could go to 0 tomorrow ;)

    Don't second guess yourself, it takes up too much mental bandwidth. I was kicking myself for not selling before it dipped!
  • My target for RENN is $4-$5 so I'm just gonna ride it for as long as possible.

    My other names SINA and BIDU are also catching an aggressive bid. It's all about contrarian and letting the herd fall over each other now.

    A alibaba and Twitter IPO is going to send this space higher. The frenzy will be palpable.

    Jeremy, you can't lose if u lock in a gain, so all is good!
  • BIDU beat estimates, stock up 14% after hours right now. Things are getting cray zay.
  • For those wondering, I'm letting RENN ride with the stock up 9% today to $3.60. I'm really trying not to sell too soon here as I think it could reach $4, or much, much higher in a takeout situation given all its cash.

    Update 8/1 at close: I've sold half my position of RENN between $3.88-$3.97 today. Can't believe it rocketed up 20% today on no news. My price target is $4, so I have to stay disciplined.
  • It's over 4 now...
  • Reply to @sendaiben: Yep, thanks for your insights. I still have 8,000 shares and will let it ride.

    If you've got any great ideas, I'd love to hear em. So far BIDU, SINA, and RENN are up 35-55%! Let's use the forum to share ideas and make everyone financially better off. Thanks.
  • Just got back from an Alaska cruise today and wow, pretty impressive ride while I was gone. That and AAPL would have been nice to ride as I got in low, but as you say Sam, I did lock in a gain.
  • Just sold 200 shares @ $4.00

    Hoping the other 500 will go higher.

    Really appreciate the tips :)
  • Reply to @sendaiben: excellent. Share your ideas too. Thx!
  • Twitter IPO talks in full effect now btw.
    S-1 any day. SINA going to catch a bid with this frenzy until listing.
  • Just sold my second tranche of RENN (200@$4.20). 300 left.

    Sell at $4:50? Keep them until they become a ten-bagger?
  • Okay, so I was being a bit facetious above, but I see my sell order at $4.50 triggered last night.

    I'm in the black now and stilll have 150 shares. Keep them? Sell at $5?
  • Curious what you guys are doing with RENN now that it's come back to earth. I don't see what has changed. Twitter is still looking to IPO, no?

    This may be my entry point.
  • Reply to @straightflush: Twitter matters more for SINA. RENN is a speculative takeover play with a lot of cash.
  • @yakezie Sorry about that. Did some reading and I think I'm caught up on your three Chinese tech picks.
  • I like the looks of Changyou (CYOU) at this price.
  • What are your thoughts on SINA now that the Twitter S-1 has been released? I bought 100 shares about a month ago and sold when it hit $90 last week. Now I am thinking about getting back in with it down 7% today to $81.65.
  • Sina reported great Q3 results. Good synergies with Taobao (Ebay of China). Lots of Wall St. upgrades today. Stock is going to gap up to about $82, but it was at $92 just several weeks ago.


    By Shuli Ren

    Sina (SINA) reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings today. Q3 revenue grew 22% year-on-year to $185 million, above the $183 million consensus. Earnings per share came in at $0.42, beating the consensus $0.32. The company guided Q4 revenue of$195-199 million (40-43% year-on-year growth), above the consensus $187 million.

    The new Weibo partnership with Alibaba seems to be working, on two fronts.

    First, according to management, 48% of Weibo’s daily active users already linked their Weibo accounts to their Taobao accounts. Weibo should be able to benefit from those mega sales events likes the Singles’ Day sale this Monday.

    Second, Weibo now contributes to 30% of Sina’s total sales and is the revenue growth driver. Revenue from Weibo grew 128% year-on-year and Alibaba contributed to almost half of Weibo’s advertising dollar.

    Citi analysts Ravi Sarathy, Muzhi Li, and Gregory Zhao raised their Buy target price from $96 to $104. On valuation, the analysts used integrated P/E:

    We believe the Street should use an integrated valuation methodology for the company: either DCF or P/E or some combination thereof, rather than SOTP, given the strategically and operationally inseparable nature of the portal and Weibo.

    On that [P/E] basis, applying a PEG of 0.7x 2014E (0.8x 2015E), to capture the “J-Curve” nature of the company’s move through breakeven to profitability, gives a P/E of 49x ’14E falling to 32x ‘15E and a TP of US$104. Buy.

    Oppenheimer analyst Andy Yeung, who also has a Buy on Sina with $90 price target, thinks we should not overlook the older portal business:

    Portal ad resumed growth for the first time since 2Q12. However, the strong performance of vertical websites, e.g. BITA, SFUN, JOBS, QUNR, WUBA, etc., suggests that the potential of SINA’s portal hasn’t been fully realized. Management indicated it’s planning to revamp the vertical channels on its portal to unlock hidden value.

  • What about BIDU at these levels? Great ranking in the internet space and good momentum. I am thinking of picking up a few shares and seeing how it goes.

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