Despite being a shareholder in Tesla stock since early 2018, I've held off on buying an electric vehicle. With limited funds, it always felt better to invest $50,000 in the stock for potential profit than spend $50,000 on a base-model Tesla car.
Besides, I had just bought a 2015 Range Rover Sport in December 2016 to transport our expected baby. My ideal length of time to own a car is about 10 years. Largely for safety reasons, changing cars every decade is my preference. Besides, car engineers usually come up with nicer creature comforts during this period as well.
However, with gasoline prices averaging more than $4 a gallon in the United States, getting an electric vehicle may finally be a good idea. My RR has a 27-gallon tank. Therefore, at $6 a gallon in San Francisco, it would cost $162 if I were crazy enough to drive until the last drop. Ridiculous!
The deja vu thing is, I clearly remember spending $100 to fill up my tank in 2008-2009. Back then, I was driving an eight-year-old Land Rover Discovery II called Moose. He only got about 15 miles per gallon. The high prices didn't last for long as a recession ensued.
The difference between 2008-2009 and today is that today most of us are much wealthier. We should be able to better take the cost hit, especially if you've been a long-time reader.
I know I'm a late adopter of the electric vehicle trend. However, let's discuss why owning an electric vehicle may be worth it. I'll then share what I plan to do about our vehicle plans.
The Benefits Of Owning An Electric Car
Besides saving money at the pump, here are some other benefits of owning an electric vehicle.
1) HOV Lane Access
Traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels. With more companies requiring their employees to return to the office, I expect traffic to get even worse. Therefore, the ability for an electrical vehicle to access some High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes to save time becomes very valuable.
Commuting to work was one of my top three reasons why I disliked work. The other two reasons were corporate politics and long hours. I feel for the people needing to drive an hour one way to get to a job they don't really like. Thankfully, there are more entertaining podcasts today than ever before to entertain and educate.
However, as electric vehicles become more popular, their special access to HOV lanes may wane. Therefore, check your local state highway laws.
2) Government Mandates And Rebates
The U.S. government plans to end purchases of gas-powered vehicles by 2035 in a move to lower emissions and promote electric cars under an executive order signed by President Joe Biden at the end of 2021. The government owns more than 650,000 vehicles and purchases about 50,000 annually.
California has set a requirement that all new vehicles sold here be emissions-free by 2035, and the Legislature is updating the state’s purchasing incentive program to get drivers into cleaner cars quickly. Other states are following suit.
Therefore, sooner or later, we might no longer be able to buy combustible engine cars. However, to incentivize consumers to buy electric vehicles, governments have offered EV rebates.
Historically, governments have offered anywhere from $1,000 – $10,000 in rebates or federal tax credits when purchasing a new electric vehicle. But I argue these rebates were necessary because electric vehicle prices were much higher than comparable combustible engine models.
Today, the electric vehicle price premium has narrowed. But overall, the average car price continues to go up. We're talking about the average car price now surpassing $48,000! That is nuts.
3) Fun To Drive
I've test-driven several different types of electric vehicles and they were all very fun to drive. The torque is instant and the power is constant. Acceleration is also much faster on average. Electric vehicles remind me of the go karts I used to race at Magic Mountain as a kid. With regenerative braking, you might save on brake pads too.
However, I do love the rumble of a combustible engine. How do you beat the gurgle of a 1990 Mustang GT? Further, there's something about the smell of burning oil and gasoline that gets my senses going. The older you are, the more you may enjoy gas vehicles due to the nostalgia it brings.
4) Better For The Environment Long Term
Obviously, producing zero emissions is one of the good long-term benefits of owning an electric vehicle. Our fossil fuel supply is finite. More electric vehicles replacing gasoline-powered vehicles helps reduce the pace of fossil fuel consumption.
Here are thoughts from Lucien Mathieu, a transport analyst at Transport & Environment on how electric vehicles are better for the earth.
“Electric vehicles emit 64% less CO2, including all the different stages like electricity generation and fuel production. But this still hasn’t shaken off the argument that electric vehicles use up a large amounts of raw materials. Our analysis shows that the raw material needs of EV batteries pale in comparison to the fuel burned by fossil fuel cars, which, unlike batteries cannot be recycled.”
The Brussels-based campaign group said battery electric vehicles were superior to their petrol and diesel counterparts across raw material demand, energy efficiency or cost – as well as eliminating exhaust emissions of carbon dioxide and other harmful gases.
On the overall energy efficiency of vehicles, T&E calculations suggest that battery-electric cars will use 58% less energy than a petrol car over their lifetimes and emit 64% less carbon dioxide.
5) Cheaper To Own And Operate
Without liquids and as many moving parts, electric vehicles often cost less than half as much to maintain and operate as gas vehicles. Here is some data from AAA with some new gas price and mpg assumptions.
- Fuel – the electricity required to drive 15,000 miles per year in a compact electric vehicle costs an average of $546, while the amount of gas required to drive the same distance costs $3,000 at $4/gallon and 20 mpg.
- Maintenance/Repair/Tires – electric vehicles do not require as much maintenance as gas-powered ones since they don’t need oil changes or air-filter replacements. If maintained according to the automakers’ recommendations, electric vehicles cost $330 less than a gas-powered car, a total savings of $949/annually.
You could consider getting an extended warranty for peace of mind. Just know that extended warranties are issued because they are profitable for the insurance and car companies.
Funny enough, I've had very little maintenance issues with my gas car over the past seven years. I may write about the cost of owning a “luxury” vehicle in a future post.
6) Less Dependency On Foreign Oil Producers
Being dependent on anyone for anything is risky, including your spouse! People or organizations can turn on you in an instant. As a result, we all need to be more self-sufficient in everything we do.
Imagine if every vehicle in America was an electric one. Now imagine if all our homes were fully powered by solar. Our economy would be much more resilient against tyrants like Putin and the people who support him.
Being able to more easily cut off dependency from oil-producing countries run by evil actors might very well be the #1 reason why we should all get electric vehicles. Because unfortunately, more conflict is an inevitability due to human nature.
Top Oil-Producing Countries
Below is a map from World Population Review that shows the top oil-producing countries as of 2022.
Here is a list of the top ten countries and their respective barrels per day (BPD) rates:
- Russia – 10.58 million BPD
- Saudi Arabia – 10.13 million BPD
- United States – 9.352 million BPD
- Iran – 4.469 million BPD
- Iraq – 4.454 million BPD
- Canada – 3.977 million BPD
- China – 3.383 million BPD
- United Arab Emirates – 3.174 million BPD
- Kuwait – 2.753 million BPD
- Brazil – 2.622 million BPD
Do we really want to be dependent on any of these countries besides our own for oil? Hell no! We humans tend to be selfish, greedy, and biased. If a country gets someone as unhinged as Putin in power, he could last for decades.
As a personal finance enthusiast trying to help people achieve financial freedom, I've been daydreaming about all of us having enough wealth to withstand much higher oil and gas prices. $10/gallon for gas? Bring it on!
Alas, so much work still needs to be done to improve everyone's finances. Further, a lot of folks are just getting started on their financial independence journey. But I’m confident that over time, we will all be less dependent on foreign oil.
Main Negatives Of Owning An Electric Vehicle
The main negatives of owning an electric vehicle are:
- The premium price to buy one
- Battery range and technology – range anxiety
- Charging grid density
Paying $35,000 for a nicely-equipped Nissan Leaf, a compact electric vehicle, still feels like too much compared to paying $25,000 for a comparable Toyota Corolla gas engine vehicle. Therefore, getting rebates or tax credits from the government is important to adopt change. We all want to save the world, but not at any price.
Below is a chart showing how average EV prices have tumbled since mid-2022 as demand slows and the cost of production declines. With average EV prices coming closer to gas-powered cars, they make more economical sense now. Just don't get a luxury EV like a Mercedes EQS. Their prices are over $100,000!
As someone who occasionally drives 210 miles to Lake Tahoe from San Francisco, I want an electric car battery that can comfortably last 250-300 miles. Just like how we should never trust the stated miles per gallon, we should never trust the miles per charge (EPA range) either. Car manufacturers always give us the top efficiency based on ideal driving conditions.
Gas And Electric Costs
Thankfully, battery technology has improved to where the most expensive electric vehicles can now travel between 300 – 400 miles on one charge. However, you still have to pay up for longer battery life. For example, one of the cheapest electric vehicles, the Tesla Model 3 Long Range (~350 miles) still costs over $51,000 pre-tax.
If you follow my 1/10th rule for car buying, the buyer should make over $510,000 to afford such a vehicle. Unfortunately, only about 1% of households make such an amount in America.
For those of you who fill up long before empty, you may feel too much anxiety driving an EV over long distances. Thankfully, however, the charging grid has become denser, and charging speeds have improved. Below is the latest Supercharger location map in America.
Finally, if you enjoy driving your car for decades, you may have to eventually buy a replacement battery. Just like your smartphone, an electric vehicle battery will lose its charge over time. Currently, the average cost to replace an electric car battery is about $6,000.
Reliability for electrical vehicles is still improving as well. I think the mass market is waiting for EV reliability to improve, which is partly why the average age of a vehicle in America is more than 12 years now.
My Plan To Buy An Electric Vehicle
I really want to buy an electric vehicle in this environment. It feels bad to be dependent on Putin and potential other bad actors from large oil-producing countries. Besides donating money to Ukrainian relief efforts, there's a desire to take action to help a terrible situation.
However, President Biden has already banned the consumption of Russian oil in America. While oil giants like Shell and BP have stopped doing business with Russia. Perhaps more oil companies will follow. Therefore, along with sanctions, a lot of what America and other countries can do to financially suppress Putin's war machine is done.
If I decide to buy a new electric vehicle, my gas vehicle will need to be put out of commission to make a difference. Otherwise, I will simply have two vehicles consuming energy. Or my gas vehicle will be driven by another person if I sell it. Given I only drive about 4,500 miles a year, the new buyer will likely consume more.
As a result, the most logical solution is to continue to own my vehicle until the ideal 10-year mark is reached in 2026. Further, I'll invest the savings from not buying an electric vehicle into real estate, stocks, and organizations that do good.
As a father of two young children, I don't want to compromise the safety of my family by buying a smaller vehicle. No matter how good of a driver you are, you also need to protect your family from other drivers. I drove a Honda Fit hatchback for three years and was often bullied on the road. The crumple zones are just too thin for comfort.
Target Electric Vehicle Of Choice
Out of all the electric vehicles out there, the one I'm eyeing the most is the Volkswagen ID.Buzz. That's right. Not a Porsche, Tesla, Audi, Lucid, Range Rover, or BMW, but a VW. It's supposed to come out in the U.S. in 2025 and cost over $40,000.
Back in 2003 I was very close to buying a VW Eurovan/Microbus (older version) instead of a condo in San Francisco. After four years of work post college, I was already itching to become a nomadic vagabond instead. I dreamt of visiting all the national parks and camping in my Eurovan without a care in the world.
Alas, financial responsibility got in the way. Today, I'm financially good to go. With two young kids, the VW ID.Buzz should be perfect. It brings back a tremendous amount of nostalgia, which I love! Here's the official VW ID.Buzz reveal from VW.
And here's an independent video review of the ID.Buzz from Top Gear.
Just Have To Wait A Little Longer To Buy An EV
In 2026, I will buy an electric vehicle for my family. By then, supply chain issues should have hopefully worked themselves out. Instead of buying new, I may buy one that's a couple years old (produced in 2024) to save. From there, I will drive the electric vehicle for another ten years.
I got to say, the anticipation of buying an electric vehicle in the future has me all excited now! Here's hoping to further technological innovation and reasonable prices over the next several years.
Invest In Real Estate In The Meantime
If you're saving up to invest in an electric vehicle, consider investing your money to potentially have it grow. Real estate is my favorite asset class because it is more stable, generates income, and provides utility.
Check out Fundrise. Fundrise offers funds that mainly invest in residential and industrial properties in the Sunbelt, where valuations are lower and yields are higher. The firm manages over $3.5 billion in assets for over 500,000 investors looking to diversify and earn more passive income.
Another great private real estate investing platform is Crowdstreet. Crowdstreet offers accredited investors individual deals run by sponsors that have been pre-vetted for strong track records. Many of their deals are in 18-hour cities where there is potentially greater upside due to higher growth rates. You can build your own select real estate portfolio with CrowdStreet.
I've personally invested $954,000 in private real estate since 2016 to diversify my holdings, take advantage of demographic shifts toward lower-cost areas of the country, and earn more passive income. We're in a multi-decade trend of relocating to the Sunbelt region thanks to technology.
Both platforms are sponsors of Financial Samurai and Financial Samurai is a six-figure investor in Fundrise.
For more nuanced personal finance content, join 60,000+ others and sign up for the free Financial Samurai newsletter. Financial Samurai is one of the largest independently-owned personal finance sites that started in 2009. To get my posts in your inbox as soon as they are published, sign up here.
I live in a small town in a rural state. My electric rates are some of the lowest in the country. Today, gas is $3.99 per gallon. Nearby, gas is $3.64 per gallon. I drive a 2019 BMW 530E plug in hybrid. I can drive eighteen miles on pure electric mode which is great for running errands around town. Eco Hybrid mode gets fifty-three miles per gallon. I have been very pleased with my BMW. The charging of the BMW is very simple and works well for me over night. Finding charging stations is a big problem. I have never used or found a charging station other than my home. My wife drives a 2022 Subaru Outback Touring XT which we can use for longer trips. Each of us drive less than five thousand miles per year.
Consider the Cybertruck if you do roadtrips and camping. Seats six with huge amounts of locked storage space. High-end versions expected to have 500+ mile range and All Wheel STEERING, so will have turning radius of a small car for easy urban driving. Just need to get over the looks.
I just don’t get the logic of VW Buzz if it’s only a 5-seater? Many better 5-seater options. It’s very compelling if they offered a 7-seater configuration that had sliding doors and was roomy.
I’ve been driving a Chevy Volt since 2014. Best of both worlds. 40 mile battery and when it runs out the engine kicks in. Chevy designed it to be 40 miles since that was the average commute at the time. Why lug around expensive batteries if most of the time you’re using much less of them. For me it worked with rarely using the ICE during the week going to and from work. Chevy did a poor job of marketing the now discontinnued volt.
Now with a family I like an larger electric van for camping and road trips. However the only thing right now on the market is a Chrysler Pacifica plugin that would be in the size range as the ID.Buzz. Having done many road trips over the years, i’ve been to remote locations where trying to find a gas station is hard let alone a charging station. I’d prefer all electric if I can get 500 miles per charge or a combo like the Volt.
I test drove the Volt but was felt very claustrophobic. The upside of range extension via hybrid do not outweigh the cost of maintenance, complexity, volume, and weight of a combustion engine, exhaust system, transmission, and gas tank. Inelegant solution.
Reading your plug in piece I am curious what is “a combustable” engine is it the one that burns like a log or you in your breathless confusion over EVs meant Internal Combustion Engine , an engine that uses either gasoline or heavier fuel(diesel) and combusts fuel in cylinders .
Why use salary for your car purchase price formula instead of net worth?
Feel free to use whatever metric you want.
Electric vehicles are Government and financial perpetuated frauds,they do not make finacial or technologigal sence,non at all. Yes Tesla is a good stock market investment ,listen to Bob Lutz oppinion expressed 3 years ago on youtube and you will recognise a ponzi schenme
Why not investigate plug in hybrids? Our PHEV lets us run short daily trips on electric with the option of using gas (at great mileage) for longer road trips. It’s a happy compromise. Also if you get solar panels for your house you can charge your own car for free and drive locally on sunshine.
What is your reason for not going full electric? For me, I just want to simplify and go one or another.
Because we need at least one car that can handle long trips to a fairly rural area in a red state. I’ve been refused charging before by an auto dealership. The auto maker forced the dealer to put in a charger he didn’t want, so he intentionally blocked access to it. Running on only electric at this point is too difficult to do. Besides, there isn’t enough space in my garage for an electric and a gas vehicle too. So we simplified and got one that can do both. If charging an electric was quicker and more readily available I’d get a pure electric .
Isn’t there a number between all (electric) or nothing that will solve the problem? Think hybrid. You know, basically an operations research problem. Also, I would prefer to hear from automotive engineers over science! from some Washington bureaucrat.
What is the logic of going hybrid? I’m sure there are automotive engineer is out there writing about this topic. Please let me know when you find the site and I’ll take a look as well. Thanks
The upside of range extension via hybrid do not outweigh the cost of maintenance, complexity, volume-use, and weight of a combustion engine. Inelegant solution.
For the commercial market, I think hydrogen electric vehicles will be the standard in 20 years.
For the personal use market hydrogen may take over, but they have an even greater difficulty in hydrogen distribution than the charging stations had in the start of the battery electric cars.
I plan on getting an EV after my current 5.7litre V-8 380 horsepower Durango dies. LOL
Felt the same way like you when I bought my new 2018 Tesla Model 3 Long Range. What I didn’t understood prior to buying the car is
a) Tesla is the safest car on the road. ever. nothing is even close. Your family deserve the safety. You deserve your safety. Car saved my life by avoiding accidents over 14 times.
b) I am extremely glad I didn’t pay cash for it. If I had used Tesla stock to pay cash I would have never retired in 2020 and the car would have cost me upwards of 1.2M, meanwhile got a 6 year loan at less than 3% that after 1.5 years refinanced to less than 2%. Car has barely depreciated after 3. years and over 60k miles. Financially speaking, leverage your net worth and get a damn loan. You can get $50k from your 401k and pay yourself the interest.
c) you can afford to treat yourself right. will you take your money with you when you die?
Oh wow! 14 times life saved is a lot! I’m glad. Are you a pretty aggressive driver? I remember drag racing at a stop light when I was a kid against a Camaro. My old Corolla FD16 didn’t do so well.
I don’t want two vehicles I’m the city. Been a one car household forever. I also really enjoy my RR. 33.4K miles on a 2015 model still feels new.
The anticipation for an VW ID.BUZZ in 2026 is fun! I might have to break down and buy it when it comes out in 2024. But buying the first year of a model is generally not a good idea.
The ID.BUZZ does look really cool. Might be the only way my wife would accept driving a “minivan”. ..lol. Right now my “dream car” (EV or not) is a Taycan Sport Turismo GTS. But at 150k.. its a LOT of money (though based on your net worth rule for car buying i could justify it :). )
Yes, $150K is big bucks. The Taycan is pretty sweet. Test drove one and my buddy has the turbo. But it’s just too small for my family of four, especially if we bring a friend b/c there is no center seat in the back!
It’s so funny that I’m excited about the ID.Buzz, but I am! That’s old age for yah! :)
True..the Taycan rear seat is ridiculously small given the overall size of the car. It’s the length of a 5 series but seems to have a tighter rear seat than a 3 series- not sure how they managed that! I only have 1 kid, though, and i’m sure he’d rather sit there than the rear seat of a 911! :).
Yeah, I need room for two child seats and space for someone to sit in between. I’m looking to go bigger, make the RR non sport, Cybertruck, Tahoe, or Escalade.
But really the ID.BUZZ is perfect!
I plan to drive my 2004 honda civic sedan to the ground – currently at 150kish miles with no major issues (fingers crossed).
I think you 1/10 is slightly flawed in that is too simple in the case of comparing a gas and electric vehicle.
1) I am TOTALLY on board with your 1/10th rule for vehicles. No arguments there. The average American grossly overspends on their vehicles.
2) Not all cars of the same price are created equal as you pointed out in your comparison of EV vs ICU cars. You sited in the article that an EV car saves over $2500 a year in fuel and maintenance costs. Over 10 years, that is a 25-30k in savings; that is a pretty massive difference.
3) In terms of the 6k replacement cost of the battery, I also looked at that at a deterrent. HOWEVER, the price of EV car batteries has dropped by more than half in just the last 10 years. As EV’s become more mainstream, I would expect that trend to continue at a decelerating pace. Also, there is a BIG market for used EV car batteries. While a 10 year old EV car battery may lose 30-40% of its range, making it undesirable, it is still a massive battery with lots on power reserve which would be great to tie into residential solar panel power systems. Many of these “second life” projects are in trial phases now, but I would bet, 10 years from now your used car battery will have a significant monetary value.
How cool would it be if an EV replacement battery was only 4k in 10 years and you got an $800 credit for your old one so it could be used in a residential solar panel system for another decade or more.
4) So here is the conflict….keeping a system for figuring out how much car you can afford vs. factoring long term ownership costs more accurately.
Perhaps you can say 1/10 for gas cars and 1/7 for electric cars?
It definitely is nice that the more you drive your electric vehicle, the more you save.
1/7th sounds fine too. The 1/10th rule is not a hard and fast rule. It’s a guide to maximize future wealth and minimize financial worry when it comes to car ownership. Because as we all know, cars cost money to operate an accidents sometimes happen.
Love my 2019 Leaf that I bought off Carvana in 2020. Will never go back to gas!
Nice! How much did you buy it for and did you get any credits or rebates?
No rebates/credits on used…only new. 27k with 7k miles.
Also-fits our family of 5 just fine (no car seats/booster) any more ;)
Maybe consumers will consider more fuel efficient vehicles or public transit if EV’s are considered out of reach. Most people don’t need SUV’s and/or pick up trucks. Oil is a finite resource…at some point in time we will exhaust supply.
Hopefully, maybe with elevated gas prices, there will be less demand for motor vehicles overall.
Most people don’t need anything. What type of vehicle do you drive if you have one?
Tesla Model Y & Porsche Cayman…
Hard to fit the little ones in a Cayman. Why not get the 911 GTS or Turbo? Do you need two cars?
That’s the thing, like you have inferred, nobody needs anything.
Related: Own One Car For Dough, One Car For Show
I prefer the Cayman…It was an impulse purchase but I really enjoy driving it. The Tesla is super fast but boring to drive.
Just a question for you…what if the vehicle manufactures were to build a vehicle akin to the Jetson’s vehicle, with headroom to accommodate a 79 year old 6ft 1 inch person who is losing the ability to twist and turn to get into these vehicles that are built close to the ground? How would it affect the mileage if only battery power were used to propel the vehicle ?
And a 20″ measurement from ground to top of the seat for ease of entry and exit. As you are sitting in your chair take the time to measure the distance from floor level to the top of the seat. We are all advancing on toward our senior age, and that comes with decreasing mobility , and with luck you will be able to reach that senior status.
As a slumlord (oops-I meant to say a rental property owner ) I drive my 2003 F150 less than 6,000 miles per year, mainly to pick my filthy lucre from my renters, and to do the routine and timely repairs and upkeep of the various properties, it doesn’t really make sense to spend a large capital outlay for an uncomfortable vehicle.. I’ll choose comfort over style any day.
The car I share with my girlfriend was rear ended and totaled out a week ago. I’ve decided to pull the trigger on a Model 3 now because:
-The price of used cars is still extremely inflated
-I have to return to work in an office in 1-2 month and the EST delivery date for a new one is around that time (many months sooner than other new vehicles)
-I get a warranty that would not transfer if I bought the vehicle used.
In general I would try to get as much use out of my vehicle as possible but with market conditions and my current situation I feel like this is a good compromise.
The Hyundai Ioniq 5 certainly looks amazing !!
I will never consider Teslas, too un-reliable and low-quality for me and my family.
Now couple that with the antics and ideologies of its CEO (who’s a commie and a racist to boot), I wouldn’t accept one even if they offer me one for free. No way in hell.
I’d say he’s the anti-communist. Like Inigo Montoya might say about communist: I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
Elon Musk is also an African American.
I’m also a Tesla shareholder since 2018. Couldn’t be happier with this investment. :-)
I would also love to get an electric car some day. But I have the same reasoning as you do. Still too expensive for me for the moment..
Another big factor to consider when buying an EV is the milage that we do with the car. I have a low annual milage, similar to you, since I don’t have the twice-a-day-one-hour-drive commute to work. So I don’t use a lot of gas anyway. People who use their car a lot are the ones that have the most to save from buying an electric car.
For short term car trips, there is also the possibility of renting a Tesla. I think they will become more available on Turo and rental cars companies like Hertz. That’s probably what I’ll do for my next trip in the USA.
As for buying an electric car, I think I’ll wait for a cheaper version of Tesla, the Model 2… The price should be more interesting and the technology should be even better. Anyway, for now, there are plenty of demand for models 3 and Y. I’ll let other people who really need it buy them first. I still enjoy the profits during this time. My turn will come eventually although this may probably not be the highest priority at Tesla to make cheaper cars since their actual models are so popular.
Very true on the return of electric vehicles not being as great for those who don’t drive a lotta year like myself.
I hope the safety features continue to improve so that when I get my Volkswagen ID.buzz in 2026, it will be a safe vehicle for my family. I can’t wait! The anticipation I’ll be more fun than actually spending of small fortune on an electric vehicle.
The country with the most energy will be the most prosperous. In the US I believe we need to revisit nuclear energy and make the transition to electric to replace natural gas and oil whenever and wherever possible. Electric energy self sufficiency is driving my decision to install solar, battery, level 2 plug, and EV. It’s a lot of money up front, but the savings and peace of mind are attractive to me.
Sam,
This seems reactive. If you are calling for a recession the incumbent is likely to lose reelection. Considering the US was energy independent only a few years ago, highly unlikely gas prices stay elevated with a change in leadership.
Life changes quick. So do market conditions. They turn on a dime and sometimes when he least expected.
70% chance is not a 100% chance. But it’s good to prepare given so many signs point towards a slowdown.
People are free to not prepare too. All is good since everything is rational in the end.
I purchased a Model Y last year and was glad that I did! Good timing since gas prices have been insane. My aunt just placed an order for a model X and the expected delivery date is January 2023….
Integrated highways with wireless charging would seem to be the best solution. Of course the cost would be high but it would permit long distance driving without range anxiety.
I really wish you would try to keep your politics out of these discussions. If we want to discuss war machines, there is no country worse on the planet than the USA. Yet because of its worldwide influence, it has never suffered the sanctions that Russia now is. These hurt the ordinary Russians and often have the opposite of the desired result. At least Russians are gaining one benefit as the US fast food companies and soft drink companies curtail their market presence. I joked with a Russian friend that the Russian people would get healthier as a result and he agreed.
Haven’t met a Putin sympathizer before. Are you Russian by any chance? If so, why do so many people support Putin? The Russian economy got destroyed after the invasion. Doesn’t seem logical to support a leader who eliminated decades of economic progress.
If you are not Russian, what are you?
Where will we get all this electricity? Will the cost of electricity rise with higher demand? Will rolling black outs continue in California with increased demand? With additional demand of 50 million cars on electricity should we expect prices to stay flat?
I would expect to see a resurgence in nuclear power in the coming decade, many of that talk going on now. It is significantly greener that power plants that burn coal or natural gas. They are significantly safer now than 40-50 years ago and new techs are very close to DRASTICALLY reducing the amount of uranium needed (so less mining).
Additionally, the infrastructure or solar will sharply improve as ICU (internal combustion engines) are phased out. Imagine the majority of your homes AND cars energy needs coming from your residential solar system (assuming you have a roof and are not in an apartment or condo in a dense city).
Solar will never be enough to supply energy for industrial use and/or dense cities….hence the need for both nuclear (or other power “plants”) as well as solar.
And of course there will be advances in solar such as solar film that will allow windows to generate energy, more efficient panels, composite materials that will drop the cost of solar panels and make it feasible to put them in otherwise unthought of places that get less direct light (sides of homes, buildings, fences).
Lastly, there will be a battle (of sorts lol) between everyday items getting more energy efficient (just look at light bulb, 20 years ago they were all incandescent and lasted 3 months, now they are all LED and last years) and having more robotic devices insides the home (and industry). That is a coin toss…..all the items you have use less energy….but you have 2-3-4-10x more items that need some level of electricity. I have 7 google homes in my house….thats a device that didnt exist a decade ago. Also as goods drop in price more people get them….in 1993 68% had an energy hogging air condition…in 2009 that was up to 87%. Similar stats for cars, pools, freezer and so on.
I have decided to split all the Differences with a Prius Prime Hybrid. Drive maybe 800 miles a month and time it as much as possible to always being in the EV mode. The gas part equals a fill up maybe once every 6-7 weeks. And tax credit and doesn’t draw the unwanted attention in the Bay Area like the “Smash and Grab” syndrome of Tesla. BUT, do own the Tesla stock and love it!
What would get you over the hump to go full EV?
We have been driving EVs for nine years now in the Bay Area. As you say, they are very fun to drive, and quiet–which I love. Noise pollution from cars is a big problem in cities, and EVs will help mitigate that.
One underappreciated fact of EVs, is that you never have to go to a gas station to fill up (except on rare long trips). You just plug in every night (literally takes a minute), and it is all charged the next morning.
We moved to Hawaii to care for family, and bought a gas car. It is OK, but I now suffer from anxiety that I will forget to fill it up when it is low. And I had forgotten about what a pain it is to drive into a busy gas station.
My son has a RIVIAN truck and loves it! EV is the way to go…
Energy density and distribution is the only discussion worth having. A barrel of petroleum is said to contain the equivalent output of 2.5 years of human labor. Battery technology that functions by stripping electrons of the third lightest element there by creating differences in local potentials will not produce growth. Without growth this species will fade. Assuming battery technology will save anything is necrotic. More raw energy is needed to mine, manufacture and maintain electric vehicles than most ICEs. Electric vehicles can be viable if we remove their batteries. Electric trolleys for the modern age, except over head wires have been replaced by embedded super conductoring pavements. Power is all around us. We can deploy massive solar collectors in orbit or at the Lagrange points and beam back the power. Fission power can act as a intermediate between now an then. Fusion power may be a solution if the powers that be can make money off of it. Carbon dioxide is not an evil gas and it does not cause heat to be reflected back to the planet, different mechanisms are at work there. What we have isn’t a case of too little energy, we just have a serious misunderstanding of thermodynamics, physics and really bad government policies, mustly designed to enrich a select few.
I’m afraid that there is a big problem with the current EV battery technology. Doesn’t Russia and China control the majority of metals necessary for battery production? If that is true, we’ll be dependent on fossil fuels for a very long time, and EV costs will only increase, not decrease.
Typically it makes sense to buy a year or two used vehicle. HOWEVER, with EV’s, brand new buyers usually suck all of the federal and state incentives out of them, then sell them just just slightly less than what they paid for them. I really think it may make sense to buy an EV brand new, or 5-6 years old. The old 1-3 year old cars just aren’t good deals anymore…
Great point! Didn’t consider that on the new car incentive suck up. Thanks
There are no electric cars capable of driving 500 miles on one charge. I don’t think there are any that can even go 400 miles.
Maybe when I’m ready to buy in 2025-2026 there will be. I just need a realistic 300 EPA so I don’t have to stress about driving anywhere for more than 4 hours. Sometimes, cars get stuck during snowy days on the way to Tahoe. It would be too stressful to sit in a major traffic jam for hours in an EV.
Here are some EV cars by range: https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/g32634624/ev-longest-driving-range/
This is such a tired argument that doesn’t apply to majority of the people in the market for an electric car.
With current technology and growing pains, anyone looking to get 500+ miles without wanting to stop or take a break, won’t get what they want by looking at E cars. The capability / tech just isn’t there.
Why does anyone in the Bay Area need an SUV? Do you go skiing in the Sierras all the time?
Yes. I have a property in Palisades Tahoe.
What care do you use to transport your family?
I agree that the EV car is the way of the future. Believe it or not, there was a time when people who loved land line phones didn’t think they would trade it in for the absurdly expensive cell phone (the price for cell phones in the 80’s – 90’s were ridiculous!). And yet, here we are. The same will eventually happen for the EV’s. I just don’t know if it’s going to be accepted by the masses in the near future. Maybe 10-15 years from now. But I do invest in the EV industry. One major problem is the charging time. If they could find a way for you to charge your vehicle in less than 15 minutes AND get the price down, I will be ready to switch over as well.
P.S
I’m a long-time reader and I STILL would hate to spend $100.00+ on filling up my gas tank (I usually just fill it up half-way to fool myself into thinking I’m not paying so much. SMH)
It seems like charging times have gone down, where are some say my full charge can you take only 30 minutes or so versus hours and hours years ago.
I think I might protest on filling up my car or going up anywhere until the price per barrel goes below $100. Oil prices collapse today, so we’re almost there!
But gas companies might purposefully keep their prices high to increase their profit. Let’s see what happens.
Worrying about selling your car to someone else who’s going to use more gas does not make sense. That person is going to buy a gas car anyway. Used cars changing hands does not increase gasoline usage. In most cases, people ditching an older car for a newer used one means higher gas mileage always being attained. The real shift is in new car sales, moving toward EV. And then, the oldest gas cars will be junked and crushed, and both of these trends will accelerate. I’m hoping classic cars will be exempt from any squeeze on gasoline cars. They are pieces of art and not driven much.
I guess I can put it another way. Selling my used car doesn’t do anything to help reduce gasoline consumption. So if I wanna help, I need to deterate my car so that nobody ever uses it again and just drive an electric vehicle, take public transportation, or walk more.
I concur with you that it’s about the wholesale adoption of electric overtime.
“Funny enough, I’ve had very little maintenance issues with my gas car over the past 5.5 years.”
“Given I only drive about 4,500 miles a year.”
Possible correlation here?
Probably. What care do you drive and how is your maintenance?
I don’t drive a lot either.
‘01 Tundra minimal
‘08 Accord minimal
‘22 Genesis GV70…we’ll see! The 10yr/100K mile powertrain warranty was hard to beat though for someone that keeps cars 10+ years.
In Indiana, they make you pay extra-$100-$200-for license plates if you have an EV or a hybrid.
Woah that VW van is SWEET! I love the vintage ones but the new version looks so much cooler and love that it’s EV. Love it
I’ve been seeing more and more electric cars where I live. They are still a small minority but are growing. I’m considering getting one for my next car or at least a hybrid. It’s good to see improvements in the technology and definitely a huge pro to be less reliant on gas.
Fine for city folk who don’t drive long distance in rural areas. My daughter- in- law has a high end model S. It was faster than any Lamborghini in a straight line. But if you try to pull a bass boat with a Tesla you won’t even make it 100 miles. And you won’t find any charge stations at the lake. Even worse if you try to tow my Polaris RZR on its trailer 300 miles to a trail system in the middle of nowhere (Mena, Arkansas). Also, guess who has all the lithium production, China. If they get encouraged by Putin we might be at odds with them soon over Taiwan. Good luck trying to replace one of Elon’s battery packs with lead acid Diehards. It may well be time for you to consider electric, but it’s a decade away, maybe forever, for me.
Tesla model 3 and model Y are the safest vehicles on the road. No engine in the front = better crumple zone.
Do you have one of them? I can’t get myself to spend $120,000 for a Model X yet. I also am looking for a new design. Perhaps I’ll buy a new design that is two or three years old. But the prices are just so great and the backlog is long too.
Yeah, the shift is inevitable. Might as well jump over early.
I have yet to find a person that enjoys going to a gas station.
That includes with a hybrid…
Got a used Model X in early 2021 for $68k directly from Tesla.
Now this is going for a little over $90k on Tesla’s website.
The Taycan might be the only other car I’d consider – mainly because of the build quality of Porsche.
Only $68K brand new? I remember checking every year since it came out and the cheapest I saw was $90K and up to $140K. How do you like it?
Great points Sam! We decided to bite the bullet back in October and are waiting for our Tesla Model X, we think the wait will be worth it! We’re supposed to receive it by the end of this month. We don’t want to contribute to the oil countries anymore to your point.
Good timing! Wow! Enjoy and let me know how is it. What was the out there door price?
60K for the Model X all out the door and we had to spend $5K to put the super-duper battery charger in our garage. Not complaining….