I don't know if you've been reading my stuff, but I've been pretty cautious since end of 2017 after I sold my rental house that summer and things are finally hitting the head.
With Apple warning, it's only a matter of time before other big companies start further kitchen sinking their numbers this year.
The Fed is stubbornly planning to raise rates (surely they must see the light now and stop), and there's chaos in Washington.
But I want to continue making money in 2019. I squeaked out a 0.8% overall pathetic gain after the Christmas rally, and my House Sale Fund closed up 5.75% after trading the hell out of it in 4Q2018 if you were reading my private newsletters. https://www.financialsamurai.com/financial-samurai-2018-year-in-review/
I suspect this year will be even harder to make money, and I would like this thread to be an ongoing open dialogue for active traders out there who not only want to outperform the market but make a positive return.
I'd love to hear people's thoughts in real-time on when they are considering legging into the market, what they are looking at buying, selling, and when they are looking to get out etc. It's good to have an open dialogue with some reasoning.
I'll go first:
I have 50% of my House Sale Fund (my only active fund) in cash bc I'm looking to buy a bigger house this year, 30% in stocks, and 20% in bonds. I fear that we will retest the lows before Christmas, hence I'm waiting to see if we hit the lows and continue further down before buying. In other words, 2,351 on the S&P 500 could be breached, and that is when I'll consider buying.
My exit is 2,800 if we ever get there. But at this moment in time, I feel like we're going to end the year negative. We will probably get some huge relief rallies if the Fed says they won't raise, but by then, it may be too late as companies have stopped hiring etc.
70% chance we end the year negative, 30% chance we end the year positive. 100% chance I never want to lose money.
I picked up some Feb 15 Apple calls yesterday. My thinking was that the drop from $220 to $160 was already pricing in that the tradewar (and slower global economy) would hurt revenue going forward, so the confirmation of this fact shouldn't have had as much teeth as it did. We'll see, it was a small bet, and I'll cut my losses if it starts dropping below 144.
Also been selling some calls and puts in higher volatility stocks, kind of a bet things will lumber along sideways for a bit.
Got a base of stocks I like I'm holding on to, although I've been a selling off lower conviction stocks. I'll hold them through a recession if it comes.
Plenty of reasons to worry, but the macroeconomic signs remain healthy enough (another good jobs report today). Until we start seeing clearer warning signs I'm expecting a sideways market, and will try to make money where I can.
Good stuff Poloma. How did you do in 2018?
Back to bull markets today as JP is finally bending. Finally.
Terrible, so don't listen to any of my advice ;D
Made one big bet in the year (NAK) and it lost 75% of its value. Up 16% since the new year, and I remain bullish on it, but that ensured a poor 2018.
I only trade <5% of my savings, the rest are in bond/index funds. For the rest I ended sideways, where new deposits matched any losses.
I didn't trade at all in 2018, scared the whole year but the other day I bought some Apple shares and wrote some March at the money calls to try to squeak out a small short term profit. I've been considering Muni's thanks to Adam's older post but they don't seem liquid enough. I'm going to look into corporate bonds. I still like the dividend payers too, like the Realty Income Corp (O), but it's a little spendy right now. Icahn Enterprise (IEP) is always interesting, paying about 10%. I don't own any but I have previously and did OK, I just watch it now. I worry that if something happens to Carl then it will tank.
I'm looking for ideas for reasonably safe investments with modest returns that are liquid.
JB - I bought some Apple after their big down guidance too. Wish I bought more Netflix. Although they reported soft numbers today too.
I think we're hitting a resistance level here right now for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. You could literally take profits now up 4% to 5% and lock in at 2.45% savings right to be up 6 1/2 to 7% this year with no stress. That's probably what I'm gonna do with half my active fun portfolio because I want to buy house.
The Motley Fool analyst, Jason Moser, often talks on their daily podcasts, Market Foolery and Industry Focus about his baskets of financial and healthcare stocks, which he has dubbed, "war on cash " and "wealthcare."
I decided to open an account with M1 investing, contribute weekly to dollar cost average, and take advantage of their no commissions structure, and build and expand a portfolio based on the financial and healthcare baskets of stocks.
I have included companies I believe are positioned to do well in an ever changing global economy. The portfolio is equally weighted, and includes baskets for: War on Cash, Wealthcare, E-Commerce, Entertainment, Food & Beverage, Real Estate, and Social Media. The baskets of stocks are as follows. I'm curious to get everyone's thoughts, so any feedback is welcomed.
War on cash
Food & Beverage
Like I stated on my other post about being bullish on BIDU so yesterday I went on a shopping spree buying call options on some big names like LB, BA, SQ,KHC, DB, WMT, some SLV for diversification 😜 and some other lesser known stocks.
Netflix was a big winner for me too bad I didn't hold on to it for longer.
2019 was a hallmark year for me. I've never seen such massive returns in my life. Not since I purchased Ford Motor Company for $1.20 when everyone thought they were going bankrupt, and it shot up to $19 a couple of weeks later.
2019 was huge for me. My salary basically doubled, and my 401k, IRA, and other accounts went nuts. Both my homes shot up in value in just one year.
Unfortunately, I also spent less time messing with my investment accounts this year than at any time in the past 20 years. So I suspect I left a lot of potential money on the table.
Big wins for me were my investments in:
and I know I'm forgetting a few.
I also sold (at the beginning of the year)
and a few others.
I was heavily invested in Schwab ETFs... which if I'm being unbiased, are really pretty good, but I could have done much better with even just 1 hour more of research. But I trust the Schwab ETFs, so that's the direction I went.
Also, HACK has been pretty decent, and I had another ETF that covered all the social media companies... XOR I think? or something?
My home values shot up too... which was crazy.
I'm hoping 2020 is even a shadow of the success that 2019 was.
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