Recent Posts

1

Real Estate Crowdfunding / Re: Thoughts On RealtyShares Closing Its Doors To New Investors

« Last post by John on Today at 01:22:17 PM »

I don't know anything about the Captain D's deals, but you should check out this website to see if this company is the franchisee for the locations you are talking about. https://www.goalzllc.com/ They have Church's, Dog Haus and Captain D's locations. They were the franchisee on 3 of the 4 Franchise Growth deals I was involved with, and 2 paid off (Church's in Huntsville and Dog Haus outside Chicago). I've communicated via email with the CEO and explained the situation to him about the Decatur, IL Dog House debt payment default, and that might be what prompted Franchise Growth to get back in touch with RS to try and rework the deal.

The CEO said he would speak to me directly about it if I entered an NDA, but I refused because then it would stop me from talking about the situation with anyone else in the future.

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Career Growth Strategies / Re: Career moves to make before a recession?

« Last post by polama on Today at 10:10:31 AM »

Predictions are usually wrong. Even if you get the big idea right (recession in 2020) you'll almost certainly get some specifics wrong (which industries are worst hit). I find it much more productive to think in broad, probabilistic terms. The economy could crash any year. My industry could experience a correction. My company could go under. My skillset could get devalued. My health could go. So find actions that will be productive regardless of macroeconomic outcome. Is your company well managed and solving an important need? If not, it might not survive a recession. But also, it probably won't thrive in good times either. So it's worth looking for other options either way. Building up a savings cushion helps a ton in bad times, and also gives you options in good times. Savings, passive income, new skills, networking, showing value at your company, building a professional reputation: these are just always good ideas.

What I saw during the '08 recession (and have gathered from the dotcom bust survivors) is that it becomes a game of survival. There are still jobs, but maybe in a different city, or more junior then you'd like, or requiring a different skillset, or a move to a neighboring industry. The better you were at networking, reputation building, learning during the good times, the easier it is to find these and the better offers you'll get. But as long as you find something, you can wait out the bad times. Many people don't. They start looking for greener pastures, or won't take any positions because of pride. Once the recession ends and the market perks up, there's a limited number of you who made it through. So the market for experienced professionals is tight and you can find good offers.

(And then the good offers attract a lot of junior talent and there's a glut in 8 years and suddenly the market crashes again, but that's a different story...)

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Financial Advice From The Community / Reader Profiles / Re: Why are some people so easily triggered by what others do with their money?

« Last post by polama on Today at 09:21:00 AM »

There's three traits that I think all of us are guilty of from time to time, but that maybe 15% of the population is just terrible about.

The first is an inability to see things from a different perspective. If buying something would be irresponsible for you, it must be irresponsible for everyone. If you had advantages in life, then everyone must have those (and those who fail must be morally bankrupt). If you had disadvantages in life, then anyone who succeeds must have cheated.

* I was in a common area in a basement of a college building where two maintenance workers were fixing an escalator. A girl came over to ask if there were other stairs? They pointed her to them, and after she left one looked incredulous at the other and said "yeah, of course there are other stairs! It's a public building, there's got to be at least 3 exits from the basement!" In a "can you believe how dumb she is" way. Buidling codes were basic knowledge to him, and you have to be pretty stupid to lack basic knowledge. I see this over and over, where people hugely overvalue the skills and knowledge of there profession.

The second is a tendency to substitute people in our past life in for others. Perhaps you had a boor of an uncle who droned on about all his stock picking prowess. Perhaps you got cut off in traffic by a fancy luxury car. Now suddenly anybody with a fancy car is a jerk, or anyone actively trading stocks in a loudmouthed idiot.

* I'd worked with a gentleman for perhaps 6 years before becoming his boss. Overnight I became this frightening father figure looking to catch him out and upbraid him. It took months to reassure him. Years of knowing me, of seeing me manage others fairly, etc. couldn't stand up to some bad experiences with authority figures long ago.

The third is good old cognitive dissonance meshed with a poor grasp on uncertainty. If you say I should do one thing, an I recently did something different, one of us must be wrong and it's not going to be me. And the more you make sense, the the wronger you have to be to balance out that my choice was the right one.

So when you post on the internet:

People don't know you, so they insert whatever person you vaguely remind them of. If they had a bad relationship with that person, they've already got a bad relationship with you.

Then they evaluate your choices through there own circumstances, and if these don't mesh chalk it up to an error in your thinking.

But of course, if you're otherwise rational seeming, there's some tension here. Why would you be so wrong about this? So they want you to acknowledge the error in your ways so there thinking can be totally blameless. So it becomes important to tell you, to scold you, to try to get you to admit they're right.

Sprinkle in the unhealthy relationships poeple have with money, and tada, instant scolding whatever you do.

4

Stocks And Index Funds / Re: John Bogle - RIP

« Last post by Dario33 on Today at 06:00:38 AM »

Thanks for sharing a few of Bogle's quotes.  Was always partial to the first and last one - as I've repeated both on different occasions.

RIP Mr. Bogle.

5

Fixed Income Focused / Re: Getting started with bonds

« Last post by Eric on January 20, 2019, 06:32:53 PM »

Tyler Durden... Love your screen name. Please tell me you write for zerohedge.

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Financial Advice From The Community / Reader Profiles / Re: Why are some people so easily triggered by what others do with their money?

« Last post by Nigel on January 20, 2019, 07:13:04 AM »

As someone providing public advice about investing you are going to get slings and arrows from time to time.  Likely a zealot from a different camp like MMM, Bogleheads, etc.

Plus your focus is different from most if I understand it correctly:  west coast HCOL (+ NYC) with high salaries.  The moves you make may be very different than what makes sense elsewhere.  Even east coast HCOL like McLean.

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Career Growth Strategies / Re: Career moves to make before a recession?

« Last post by couchfi on January 19, 2019, 09:38:18 PM »

I was in college in 08, so I can't speak from personal experience, but my take in being in tech today is that the salaries are incredible and can not continue forever. It's really hard to find or create an income stream as good as a tech salary when you're just starting out without a lot of money, network or fame. While the times are good, you should ride the wave and earn as much as possible, save a bunch (covert most of your company shares into more diverse assets if they're liquid), start side projects to generate passive income, and have some cash cushion ready when the times get bad and/or assets become cheap.

This early in your career, you should be learning from the best tech company and people as you can get yourself into, because the value of your skills compound too as one skill builds on top of another. You're not going to learn very much from most government tech jobs where the systems were created in the 80s, people work 9 to 4 with a 1.5 hour lunch and they're still using the waterfall methodology, that's not the kind of environment you want to be in early in your career (or even pretty late in your career for that matter). so even in a recessions, I would do anything in my power to *avoid* getting a government job.

8

Taxes / Re: Claiming college aged children as dependents?

« Last post by Fat Tony on January 19, 2019, 09:00:39 PM »

From my understanding, the TCJA enacted for 2018 means that you just have a standard deduction of $12K for single filers and $24K for married, and eliminated the personal exemptions (used to be $4,050 each for you and your dependents). It seems that this won't be an issue come this April 15, and you don't need to worry about it again until the 2025 tax year. The child tax credit wouldn't apply to adult/college-age dependents.

9

Career Growth Strategies / Career moves to make before a recession?

« Last post by mark_wu on January 19, 2019, 01:22:30 PM »

Hello everyone,

I've read many articles about a large recession coming our way by 2020. It appears a downturn at least as large as the previous recession of '08 is coming our way.

I like my current role working in a technical role in a mid sized tech company. I was in highschool during the "Great Recession" of '08. Obviously the finance sector experienced major layoffs. However, this time around I cannot tell which industry the layoffs may hit hardest in. I know many large tech companies carry a lot of debt so I'm wondering if tech may be hit hardest.

I'm a jr in my current role. Does that make me more dispensable than other seniors, or will I be viewed as lower cost? What can I do to make myself more valuable to my employer?

Are there any industries or roles that may be more safe? I imagine government roles may be more safe. If there are major layoffs that occur in tech, and I'm affected, I think I may want to move to a technical role in another industry, or maybe get a government role. Other ideas I had were starting a freelance gig like Sam recommends to do during a recession, or picking up more technical skills and certifications.

Thank you in advance for sharing your experience and advice!

-Mark

10

Real Estate Crowdfunding / Re: Thoughts On RealtyShares Closing Its Doors To New Investors

« Last post by kt1984 on January 19, 2019, 10:34:52 AM »

I had invested in 4 deals - with Franchise Growth LLC. One of them paid off on time (Chicago Dog Haus)- and 3 of them are paying distributions but I am extremely concerned.  I am invested in Captain D in Shelbyville, American Family Care in West Islip NY and Dog Haus/Taco John in Taylor, MI.  American Family care has been operating for a few months now and has good reviews and Captain D is scheduled to open in a couple of months (fingers crossed). Both of them are on sale at https://www.embreegroup.com/properties/ , American Family care had a 1031 exchange buyer who backed out and the note mentioned they have 2 other interested buyers but nothing has happened yet. Also, as John pointed out- construction on the 3rd one which was supposed to be a Dog Haus/Taco John combination in Taylor, MI stopped sometime last year.  The sponsor is trying to work with a partner to recapitalize and pay off the loan-however the distributions are still coming. I am extremely concerned as all of my investments are with a single sponsor. I was hoping these are 20 year NNN commercial deals with a first lien debt which would make them extremely safe, however I am very disappointed. Please keep me updated as you know more on these deals.

Karan