Author Topic: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019  (Read 2530 times)

Sam

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Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« on: January 03, 2019, 08:15:56 PM »
Hi Folks,

I don't know if you've been reading my stuff, but I've been pretty cautious since end of 2017 after I sold my rental house that summer and things are finally hitting the head.

With Apple warning, it's only a matter of time before other big companies start further kitchen sinking their numbers this year.

The Fed is stubbornly planning to raise rates (surely they must see the light now and stop), and there's chaos in Washington.

But I want to continue making money in 2019. I squeaked out a 0.8% overall pathetic gain after the Christmas rally, and my House Sale Fund closed up 5.75% after trading the hell out of it in 4Q2018 if you were reading my private newsletters. https://www.financialsamurai.com/financial-samurai-2018-year-in-review/

I suspect this year will be even harder to make money, and I would like this thread to be an ongoing open dialogue for active traders out there who not only want to outperform the market but make a positive return.

I'd love to hear people's thoughts in real-time on when they are considering legging into the market, what they are looking at buying, selling, and when they are looking to get out etc. It's good to have an open dialogue with some reasoning.

I'll go first:

I have 50% of my House Sale Fund (my only active fund) in cash bc I’m looking to buy a bigger house this year, 30% in stocks, and 20% in bonds. I fear that we will retest the lows before Christmas, hence I'm waiting to see if we hit the lows and continue further down before buying. In other words, 2,351 on the S&P 500 could be breached, and that is when I'll consider buying.

My exit is 2,800 if we ever get there. But at this moment in time, I feel like we're going to end the year negative. We will probably get some huge relief rallies if the Fed says they won't raise, but by then, it may be too late as companies have stopped hiring etc.

70% chance we end the year negative, 30% chance we end the year positive. 100% chance I never want to lose money.

Thoughts?

Sam
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 08:30:40 AM by Sam »
Regards,

Sam

polama

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Re: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2019, 06:55:22 AM »
I picked up some Feb 15 Apple calls yesterday. My thinking was that the drop from $220 to $160 was already pricing in that the tradewar (and slower global economy) would hurt revenue going forward, so the confirmation of this fact shouldn't have had as much teeth as it did. We'll see, it was a small bet, and I'll cut my losses if it starts dropping below 144.

Also been selling some calls and puts in higher volatility stocks, kind of a bet things will lumber along sideways for a bit.

Got a base of stocks I like I'm holding on to, although I've been a selling off lower conviction stocks. I'll hold them through a recession if it comes.

Plenty of reasons to worry, but the macroeconomic signs remain healthy enough (another good jobs report today). Until we start seeing clearer warning signs I'm expecting a sideways market, and will try to make money where I can.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 07:07:40 AM by polama »

Sam

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Re: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2019, 08:07:54 AM »
Good stuff Poloma. How did you do in 2018?

Back to bull markets today as JP is finally bending. Finally.
Regards,

Sam

polama

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Re: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2019, 10:27:34 AM »
Terrible, so don't listen to any of my advice  ;D

Made one big bet in the year (NAK) and it lost 75% of its value. Up 16% since the new year, and I remain bullish on it, but that ensured a poor 2018.

I only trade <5% of my savings, the rest are in bond/index funds. For the rest I ended sideways, where new deposits matched any losses.

Jbinjville

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Re: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2019, 03:05:26 PM »
I didn't trade at all in 2018, scared the whole year but the other day I bought some Apple shares and wrote some March at the money calls to try to squeak out a small short term profit. I've been considering Muni's thanks to Adam's older post but they don't seem liquid enough. I'm going to look into corporate bonds.  I still like the dividend payers too, like the Realty Income Corp (O), but it's a little spendy right now.  Icahn Enterprise (IEP) is always interesting, paying about 10%. I don't own any but I have previously and did OK, I just watch it now. I worry that if something happens to Carl then it will tank.
I'm looking for ideas for reasonably safe investments with modest returns that are liquid.
JB

Sam

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Re: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2019, 07:20:47 PM »
JB - I bought some Apple after their big down guidance too. Wish I bought more Netflix. Although they reported soft numbers today too.

I think we’re hitting a resistance level here right now for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. You could literally take profits now up 4% to 5% and lock in at 2.45% savings right to be up 6 1/2 to 7% this year with no stress. That’s probably what I’m gonna do with half my active fun portfolio because I want to buy house.
Regards,

Sam

knatetheblade

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Re: Active Trader Thread To Make Money In Stocks For 2019
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2019, 05:44:48 PM »
The Motley Fool analyst, Jason Moser, often talks on their daily podcasts, Market Foolery and Industry Focus about his baskets of financial and healthcare stocks, which he has dubbed,  “war on cash “ and “wealthcare.”

I decided to open an account with M1 investing, contribute weekly to dollar cost average, and take advantage of their no commissions structure, and build and expand a portfolio based on the financial and healthcare baskets of stocks.

I have included companies I believe are positioned to do well in an ever changing global economy.  The portfolio is equally weighted, and includes baskets for:  War on Cash, Wealthcare, E-Commerce, Entertainment, Food & Beverage, Real Estate, and Social Media.  The baskets of stocks are as follows.  I’m curious to get everyone’s thoughts, so any feedback is welcomed.

War on cash
GDOT
MA
PYPL
SQ
V

Wealthcare
IDXX
ISRG
MASI
TDOC
UNH

E-Commerce
AMZN
BABA
ETSY
MELI
SHOP

Entertainment
AAPL
ATVI
BKNG
DIS
NFLX

Food & Beverage
MIDD
MNST
SAM
SBUX
TXRH

Real Estate
ELLI
HD
PSA
SHW
STAG

Social Media
FB
GOOG
MTCH
NTES
TWTR

Thanks,
Nate