Hi Folks,
I don't know if you've been reading my stuff, but I've been pretty cautious since end of 2017 after I sold my rental house that summer and things are finally hitting the head.
With Apple warning, it's only a matter of time before other big companies start further kitchen sinking their numbers this year.
The Fed is stubbornly planning to raise rates (surely they must see the light now and stop), and there's chaos in Washington.
But I want to continue making money in 2019. I squeaked out a 0.8% overall pathetic gain after the Christmas rally, and my House Sale Fund closed up 5.75% after trading the hell out of it in 4Q2018 if you were reading my private newsletters. https://www.financialsamurai.com/financial-samurai-2018-year-in-review/
I suspect this year will be even harder to make money, and I would like this thread to be an ongoing open dialogue for active traders out there who not only want to outperform the market but make a positive return.
I'd love to hear people's thoughts in real-time on when they are considering legging into the market, what they are looking at buying, selling, and when they are looking to get out etc. It's good to have an open dialogue with some reasoning.
I'll go first:
I have 50% of my House Sale Fund (my only active fund) in cash bc I’m looking to buy a bigger house this year, 30% in stocks, and 20% in bonds. I fear that we will retest the lows before Christmas, hence I'm waiting to see if we hit the lows and continue further down before buying. In other words, 2,351 on the S&P 500 could be breached, and that is when I'll consider buying.
My exit is 2,800 if we ever get there. But at this moment in time, I feel like we're going to end the year negative. We will probably get some huge relief rallies if the Fed says they won't raise, but by then, it may be too late as companies have stopped hiring etc.
70% chance we end the year negative, 30% chance we end the year positive. 100% chance I never want to lose money.
Thoughts?
Sam