Dear Financial Samurai,
The stock market remains stuck in neutral, with the Magnificent 7 and other large tech stocks continuing to underperform. That said, other sectors, such as financials and consumer cyclicals are doing better.
There’s still no verdict from the Supreme Court on the tariff rulings (maybe January 20), although rumblings suggest it may allow the existing tariffs to stand to avoid further disruption. Meanwhile, Trump has introduced 10% “Greenland” tariffs on Denmark, Germany, Finland, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, France, and the UK starting in February. Unless Denmark agrees to sell Greenland to the U.S., those tariffs will rise to 25% on June 1.
After the latest tariff news, Bitcoin barely moved, dipping about 0.2%. That reaction suggests the broader market may also shrug off the headlines. We have been through this rodeo before, and markets tend to become more desensitized over time. That said, I’m still expecting a 10% sell-off at some point this year.
Positive on Real Estate in 2026
While I’m less enthusiastic about stocks in 2026, I’m increasingly constructive on real estate. Firms like Zillow and Redfin are calling for a 1% to 1.8% rise in nationwide home prices, but I think we could see closer to triple that increase. After more than three years of underbuilding due to elevated mortgage rates, the housing shortage is likely to become more acute by the end of the year, putting upward pressure on both rents and home prices.
2026 also looks set to be a year when the Trump administration rolls out as many proposals as possible to bring rates down and improve affordability. One early idea involves allowing buyers to tap a larger portion of their 401(k) to purchase a home under more favorable terms, though details are still sparse.
On a personal note, although dealing with three tenant turnovers in 2025 was a headache, the silver lining was being able to reset rents to market rates on the two properties I kept. Based on these rentals, single-family home rents on the west side of San Francisco are up roughly 10% year over year.
From a risk-reward perspective, I’m far more comfortable investing $1 million in real estate than putting the same amount into the S&P 500 at around 7,000. Even if real estate only returns 3% to 4% plus rental income, I have more confidence it will at least hold its value. After three years of exceptional stock market gains, I’m choosing to be more cautious.
See: 2026 Real Estate Outlook: Better Times Ahead
Please Appreciate the Time You Have Left
Last week was the first week I hadn’t published three posts since July 2009. I thought resisting the urge would be hard, but surprisingly, it wasn’t. I used the extra time to play pickleball from 9:15 a.m. to 12:15 p.m. after dropping off the kids at school. Then I came home, showered, took a nap, and did some writing on my new book.
The ease of doing less was a clear signal that I’m genuinely burned out. At the same time, I felt mentally at peace because I technically haven’t broken my streak of publishing three times a week. I’m still writing and publishing this newsletter. In reality, I’ve simply been outperforming my own goal by about 33% a week for the past 16 years by publishing four times weekly.
I was also comfortable putting more focus on my new post, Practice Converting Stock Market Gains Into Time Saved. After all, when I started writing about FIRE in 2009, the goal was never just to accumulate money. It was to save time by escaping the corporate finance grind.
Every older person I talk to says life goes by in a snap. When I think about it, the 16.5 years since I started Financial Samurai have gone by just as fast. If I add another 16.5 years to my current age, I’ll be 65, and my kids will be 23 and 26. So sad! There's no way I'm going to spend a minute doing something I don't want or need to do.
Go On Adventures Before Your Health Goes
Does it really make sense to work 40 to 50 years out of high school or college at a job you don’t love while giving up your youth, your time with your kids and family, and your dreams of doing something else, all for money and status? Hell no. I promise you that at 60 plus, you will not be the same healthy, energetic person in search of adventure that you once were.
At 48.5, I already have nagging plantar fasciitis that hasn’t gone away for six months. My vision is no longer crisp. And somehow, both my shoulders feel like they’re about to fall off, likely from playing too much basketball now. To think I’ll feel healthier in another 16.5 years feels foolish. And unless you’re extremely unhealthy right now, it’s probably foolish to think you’ll be the exception.
Please don’t wait to go on your adventures. Budget them into your schedule now, just like the endless meetings on your work calendar. If you don’t intentionally plan for fun and fulfillment, I’m afraid they simply won’t show up as often as they should when all is said and done.
I would willingly give up 100 percent of my net worth gains since 2012 to return to that year when I was 34. If you’ve had a growing sense of discontent about your work, please make this the year you change your life. Freedom is not as expensive as you think.
To your financial freedom,
Sam
Book Giveaway and Free Consultation Clarification
For those participating in my free signed copy of Millionaire Milestones, this offer is tied to a new free consultation with an Empower professional. To qualify, you must complete the second call, which includes an analysis of your portfolio and investment suggestions. The first call is simply a short discovery session to understand your objectives and current financial situation.
If you’ve had a call with Empower in the past, you can do another one this year and it will still count. You can schedule your free consultation here. I'll go to the post office at the end of each month and mail the books to qualified participants.
Empower is a long time affiliate of Financial Samurai. I am currently not a client of Empower Advisor Group LLC. That said, I’ve completed two free Empower consultations in the past, and both were helpful in identifying investment imbalances. Click here to learn more.
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