Author Topic: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?  (Read 16596 times)

Sam

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Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« on: December 03, 2018, 09:25:33 PM »
My annual calendar reminder popped up saying to buy bitcoin at below $3000. Anybody have any thoughts on bitcoin and crypto currency is at these levels? It does seem like the blockchain will be around forever and continue to grow.

I’d love to hear some brief bears and bullish arguments on bitcoin Current levels.
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Sam

Tony

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2018, 11:01:08 AM »
I still think the bitcoin and the crypto market is going lower. I expect Crypto hedge funds to be closing up shop by years end being forced to sell. Still seems like a majority of the cryptocurrencies are useless or scams. I think a lot of those need to get flushed out of the ecosystem by dropping to close to 0 before the remaining cryptos with solid use cases can start rebounding. I've also heard that it costs the majority of bitcoin miners $2500-3000 to acquire 1 btc. That could have negative implications if btc keeps dropping.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see the bear market continue for anywhere between a couple more months to a year.

I do think btc specifically has real use cases and is a great investment long term at these lower prices (if your willing to lose everything you put into it). Personally I'll wait till price hits 3k and below for the reasons I already stated then start buying.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 11:02:41 AM by Tony »

chitown-2020

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2018, 08:07:08 PM »
Ok, so I'm so torn here.   For full disclosure I own a few BTC, ETH and LTC, most of which I bought back in 2015-2016.   I also work in technology and have exposure to smart consultants and MIT media-lab types.   Most of the uber-smart people that I know think that crypto currencies are a total scam and can't envision a value use case, even for the underlying technology that isn't well served already by more robust and well-defined technology.   (Known as the 'Jamie Dimon' approach).

I'm a contrarian... and I think that really smart people can get blindsided by politics, herd mentality and surprise economic conditions.   With all of the projects working on blockchain and crypto, it really does feel like this is hear to stay, even if 75% of the current projects fail and many of the current mining companies implode.   That being said, there is still a very high non-zero chance that the whole thing implodes.    I do predict more pain in the short-term -- and I think that lots of the crypto miners will be forced to shutter their operations as the price languishes.

What has not surprised me is the resilience of the first big movers (Bitcoin & Ether) vs the rest.   I think many of the alt-coins will fade away.   Many more will be created for much more use-case specific applications and may never be discussed as 'currency' at all.    It's still a solution looking for a problem, but I do think some of the projects will be successful... and really ONLY the largest and most popular have any chance of being a 'store of value' long term.

All that to say -- I have no idea how to value it or put a price on it!  This is why Warren Buffet calls it 'Rat Poison Squared'.    If I did know (or if anybody knew), I would be trading.   As it stands, when my friends ask -- I'm neither a buyer nor a seller.   No matter what you decide, its a long-shot and I would maintain either {1} a 10 year investment time horizon or {2} hold it until a quantum computer is invented, whichever comes first.     :D :D

(Note:  A quantum computer would, in theory be able to break the cryptography underlying the technology and render the whole thing compromised)

Anyway, my two bits.   I'm just fascinated by the whole thing.    Am really interested to hear what others think!   
« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 08:09:12 PM by chitown-2020 »

Sam

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2018, 08:08:54 PM »
I still think the bitcoin and the crypto market is going lower. I expect Crypto hedge funds to be closing up shop by years end being forced to sell. Still seems like a majority of the cryptocurrencies are useless or scams. I think a lot of those need to get flushed out of the ecosystem by dropping to close to 0 before the remaining cryptos with solid use cases can start rebounding. I've also heard that it costs the majority of bitcoin miners $2500-3000 to acquire 1 btc. That could have negative implications if btc keeps dropping.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see the bear market continue for anywhere between a couple more months to a year.

I do think btc specifically has real use cases and is a great investment long term at these lower prices (if your willing to lose everything you put into it). Personally I'll wait till price hits 3k and below for the reasons I already stated then start buying.

Wouldn't the cost to mine Bitcoin at $2,500 - $3,000 essentially put a floor on Bitcoin's price?

It's look building cost for housing. Can't sell below building cost or else no profits.
Regards,

Sam

Tony

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2018, 11:40:35 PM »
Quote
Wouldn't the cost to mine Bitcoin at $2,500 - $3,000 essentially put a floor on Bitcoin's price?

It's look building cost for housing. Can't sell below building cost or else no profits.

I wish I knew enough to give a better more concise response but this is the best I have with my understanding.
 
Miners process bitcoin transactions in the process of mining. If every miner stopped mining you wouldnt be able to send or use bitcoin which would make it worthless. And if theres no demand to buy bitcoin at prices above $2500 then theres no reason the price can't go lower and people stop mining cause theyre losing money. Just like a home builder would stop building homes if the house couldnt be sold at cost or higher. The difference is that houses that already exist dont lose any utility from the home maker closing up shop. While bitcoin you currently hold is affected negatively from miners shutting down.

Now not everyone would stop mining. In certain countries I assume electricity cost of mining is lower (2500-3k is based mainly on North americas electric cost where a large portion of the miners are, so this wouldnt have to be the floor on cost to produce btc) and there are a lot of people who mine on such a small scale they dont care about a few dollars added to their electric bill. But with less miners it takes longer for transactions to process making bitcoin less useful. Also, from my understanding the more miners there are the more secure the btc network is making it more difficult to hack.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 11:46:46 PM by Tony »

rluks

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2018, 12:44:22 AM »
What about ETH? It has smart contracts making it suitable for interesting projects based on blockchain. Doesn't it make it more valuable than BTC?

Tony

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2018, 10:09:41 AM »
Quote
What about ETH? It has smart contracts making it suitable for interesting projects based on blockchain. Doesn't it make it more valuable i BTC?

Off the top of my head I cant think of anything built on ethereum that is actually used in any significant manner. Most of the projects launched off ethereum as well as ethereum itself fall under what is likely an illegal security. Whether anything will be done about that is debatable.

Also, I dont view ethereum as decentralized. The creator still writes most of the major code changes and is involved in making a lot of decisions about the direction in which ethereum goes.

Bitcoin no one knows who actually created bitcoin and theres no central authority who holds power of governance over it. This also makes bitcoin slow to change and requires a large portion of all the coders and developers working on bitcoin to agree on changes which can be very difficult to do. But not having to trust a central authority like a government, company, bank or individual person to act in an ethical manner and in a way that has your best interests is one of the qualities of bitcoin i think is important.

So those are the reasons i dont really like ethereum and most of the other cryptocurrencies over bitcoin. I do think ethereum is clearly the number 2 crypto and could be a good investment. But being launched as what i think is an illegal security combined with what i view as a lack of decentralization is why I'm not investing in it.

david123

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2018, 09:33:50 AM »
I've looked into mining, and you pay more on electricity to run your equipment than the bitcoins are worth.  That's why a lot of people are cryptojacking - might be some money in that, although it's illegal.

My view is bitcoin is more of a gamble than an investment.

couchfi

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2019, 11:41:39 PM »
The mining difficulty of bitcoin automatically adjusts to the total mining power of the network, so as miners go bankrupt and leave the system, mining actually becomes cheaper.

I suspect there's a lot of sunken fixed costs a lot of big miners have already put in, so they're still mining to recoup what they can as long as the cost of electricity is lower than the value of bitcoin.

SteveGood

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Re: Anybody buying Bitcoin below $4,000?
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2020, 10:24:29 PM »


I think if you interested to invest money you can try physical gold and real estate. Because it's safe and secure you can earn wealthy money in the future.