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Happy New Year!
We landed from Honolulu at 12:04 a.m. on January 1, only to sit on the tarmac for 1.5 hours due to staffing issues at the gate. Every fifteen minutes, the captain came back on the speaker to say it would be another fifteen minutes. By the time we finally deplaned and made it home through a rainstorm, it was 2:40 a.m. It felt like an oddly fitting way to begin the year, uncomfortable, uncertain, and completely out of our control.
Later that morning did not inspire any confidence. After ten days of not driving, my car battery was completely dead. I could not even unlock the door with the key fob. I had to dig out the manual key, pry open the handle cover. Roadside assistance took far longer than promised, and when the technician finally arrived, the car would not start at first.
I let the car idle for 15 minutes and drove another 17 minutes to the auto parts store to charge the battery, only for it to die again once I got there. It even shut down once while I was driving, which was easily the most nerve wracking moment of the day. After several failed attempts with weaker jump starters, a 2000 amp booster finally got me home.
Based on Day One alone, my expectations for things going smoothly this year are already low. I am bracing for continued market volatility and more surprises out of Washington.
Taking Over Venezuela Oil
Removing Maduro from power over the weekend was a surprise move, but one that appears to be welcomed by millions of Venezuelans after years of economic upheaval, violence, drug trafficking, and perceived election rigging.
On the one hand, removing a dictator from a sovereign nation introduces immediate geopolitical uncertainty, which can trigger knee-jerk selling in financial markets. Investors dislike unpredictability, and markets often react first and think later. On the other hand, history suggests that these types of pullbacks are often short lived as investors begin to assess potential benefits more calmly.
The main upside of removing Maduro from office and taking over oil production is the potential for meaningfully lower energy prices. Venezuela owns roughly 17-20 percent of the world’s oil reserves, yet currently produces only about one percent of global supply. If production ramps up meaningfully, global oil and gas prices could face sustained downward pressure.
Lower energy prices would provide broad relief across the economy and help reduce inflation. I am already encouraged seeing gas prices at $3.99 per gallon here in San Francisco. If prices fall closer to $3.50 or below, that could be meaningfully bullish for stocks, real estate, and other assets that are sensitive to interest rates and consumer spending.
This development is net negative for Canada, as the United States could rely less on Canadian oil going forward. China may feel emboldened to assert control over Taiwan by citing precedent, or it may hesitate given that Venezuela previously supplied roughly four percent of China’s oil demand. Not knowing which path China will take is the essence of geopolitical risk. A final potential positive is reduced drug trafficking into the United States if conditions stabilize.
Bottom line, I plan to buy any sell off this week. Unless we see a strong rally on Monday, the Santa Claus rally will have failed for the third year in a row. The silver lining is that lower prices allow us to fund our tax-advantaged retirement accounts and our children’s custodial investment accounts at better valuations. Given how expensive assets have become, investing early for our kids matters more than ever.
No Good Deed Goes Unpunished
I expected a relaxing ten days at my parents’ house in Honolulu. For the most part, it was wonderful to finally enjoy the remodeled two bedroom in law unit I spent five weeks and $41,000 renovating and project managing.
The biggest win was my wife telling me her happiness jumped from a 2/10 to a 7/10. I would have been thrilled with a five or six. Meanwhile, my mom did not get frustrated or say anything hurtful, which also felt like a victory.
Unfortunately, we nearly started a fire twice in three days (new post). Only after the trip did I fully process how serious those moments could have been. It was a reminder that renovating older homes, especially when installing new appliances, requires extra caution. I share the full story lessons learned to help protect your home and your family from similar risks.
Recapping A Difficult 2025
I entered 2025 with high expectations and put in a great deal of effort to make it a strong year. As I have learned repeatedly, high expectations often increase the odds of disappointment, which was the case in 2025.
On the positive side, we experienced a third consecutive year of double digit stock market gains. Our household finances grew, and from a purely financial standpoint, the year was a success. On the negative side, we faced unfixable family challenges that weighed on us emotionally throughout the year.
2025 reinforced that after your basic needs are met, money does not meaningfully increase happiness. In many cases, having more money can even create more stress as you buy more things, manage more assets, and pursue more experiences that ultimately weigh you down.
Here's my full year in review for 2025 that goes deeper into these themes. I would love to hear about your own hits and misses as well.
Finally, I put together the best Financial Samurai posts of 2025. In total, I published 156 articles and wrote 52 weekly newsletters. Everything I write is based on firsthand experience because money is too important to be left to theory alone.
It has been an honor to continue this financial journey with you. If you found any post or newsletter helpful, please consider forwarding it to someone who might benefit from a thoughtful perspective on money and life.
After 16.5 years of writing, I feel grateful to still have the energy and curiosity to keep going. That said, I will be thinking carefully about my goals for 2026, as it may finally be time to take things a little easier.
To Your Financial Freedom,
Sam
Thanks again to Fundrise for being a long time sponsor of Financial Samurai. Congratulations to investors in Fundrise Venture who saw returns of over 45% in 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. However, I am letting my $500,000+ plus position ride because I believe AI growth will continue.
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