The main reason why I’ve gotten more conservative with my investments is not because valuation for the S&P 500 is near an all-time high and earnings growth is decelerating.

Nor have I gotten more defensive because housing inventory has shot up across major parts of the country and prices are clearly declining.

No. The main reason why I’ve gotten more conservative with my investments is because I’m very close to retiring for a second time.

Let me recap my background and share some retirement preparation plans if you’re also planning on retiring soon.

In 2009, I made myself two promises when I started Financial Samurai: 1) write 3X a week on average for 10 years and 2) never lose money again.

We had just gone through a financial beating where my net worth got slashed by 35% – 40% in just six months. The pain was too much to bear, so I decided to take up writing instead of drugs and alcohol.

I knew that worst case, if I stayed committed with Financial Samurai, in 10 years I’d have the option to escape full-time work. When you spend at least 10,000 hours on your craft, you will have opportunities.

Further, I knew that if I never lost money again, in 10 years by simply earning a conservative 5% rate of return plus annual savings, I’d surpass the net worth that I once had before the financial crisis by at least 2X.

Achieving financial independence takes discipline and patience. But once you get there, you’ll realize all your effort was well worth it.

In theory, the maximum possible Social Security benefit in 2019 for someone who retires at full retirement age is $2,861, up 2.6% YoY. However, in order to collect the maximum benefit, you would need to earn the maximum taxable amount for 35 total years.

Given the maximum taxable amount is $132,900 for 2019, this is no easy feat. According to the the U.S. Census Bureau, median household income is only about $62,000 a year and the average household income is about $11,000 higher.

Thus, instead of the max $2,861, the average Social Security benefit is roughly $1,461 a month. Receiving a total of $17,532 in Social Security benefits a year is not enough for a comfortable retirement.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, “older households” – defined as those run by someone 65 and older – spend an average of $45,756 a year, or roughly $3,800 a month.

I don’t know about you, but spending $45,756 after-tax a year in retirement sounds like a lot! Based on a 20% effective tax rate, $45,757 is equivalent to $57,195 a year in gross income.

To generate $57,195 a year in gross income requires an investment portfolio of $1,429,875 generating 4% a year. Could it be that the average 65+- year-old retiree is a millionaire?

Given we know the average 60-69-year-old American retiree has only about $198,000 in their 401(k) and only $63,000 if we look at the median 401(k) account balance, something seems off.

Or, we can take the positive view that everything seems to always turn out OK in the end. After all, if you are a current retiree over the age of 65, you likely have some pension income and are certainly eligible for Social Security, which averages roughly $1,422 a month.

Add on some financial help from respectful kids, and all is good for current retirees. Unfortunately, the same might not be true for future retirees.

The following is a guest post from a 25-year-old Financial Samurai reader who lives in Washington D.C., makes $55,000 a year and maxes out his 401(k).

After Sam published his article, Achieving Financial Freedom On A Modest Income In Manhattan, I was fascinated to observe some of the no-can-do responses he received from his readers.

Instead of focusing on Sam’s message of cutting down housing costs, distracting yourself from spending temptation by working more than the average American, and building extra side income while you are young, the naysayers could not accept that he saved 30% of his $40,000 salary even when he did.

They said people making a similar income in today’s dollars would have no chance. Well I make a similar income in today’s dollars and I save an even higher percentage.

There’s a great saying: whether you think you can or you can’t, you’re right. It seems like no matter how much you demonstrate what’s possible, people don’t believe in themselves.

I used to be very salty against those who earned more than I did too. My parents didn’t pay for college, so I had to work ~15 hours a week during school and 30 hours a week each summer to afford my public school tuition. I also lived at home for the first two years of college as well to save money.

But when I graduated from George Mason University in December 2016, I didn’t have any debt. Tuition averaged only about $10,000 a year for my four years there so I handled it like a boss.

I studied accounting, the most boring major in the world. But I knew the chance of getting a decent paying job out of school was high.

I did not have the luxury of studying History or English like my rich private school friends who went to American, George Washington, or Georgetown.

According to Fidelity, as of September 2018, the average 401(k) account balance is $106,500. Fidelity holds 16.2 million 401(k) accounts, including my Solo 401(k). Fidelity is consistently ranked as one of the largest 401(k) providers in the country.

The median 401(k) account balance, on the other hand, is a paltry $24,800. It’s clear that despite an enormous bull run since the 2009 lows, not enough Americans are saving for retirement or don’t have pre-tax retirement plans like a 401(k). I’m sure it’s a combination of both.

What I’d like to do is compare the latest average 401(k) balance by age with my recommended average 401(k) balance by age for financial independence seekers. Let’s see how big the differences are so we can explain how important it is for everybody to focus on their finances.

The 401(k) account is one leg of the new three-legged stool for retirement. The other two legs are post-tax savings accounts and personal hustle. It’s important to never depend on the government or anyone for your financial future.

Although 2018 ended on a down note with the stock market selling off, I feel good about how things unfolded. I’ll take the ratio of three good quarters to one bad quarter any year.

Believe it or not, my theme for 2018 was: back to early retirement life. I pushed myself to the point of burnout in 2017. But the funny thing about hard work is that it’s over. I only remember bits and pieces of how difficult 2017 was.

At year-end, it’s easy to forget our accomplishments and our failures. With this post, I’m excited to relive the good and the bad in the following categories: Finances, Family, Health, Business, and Odds & Ends.

This post is like a 4-for-1 special. It needs to be thorough so I can prove to my son his old man wasn’t a deadbeat when he inevitably starts rebelling or when I’m no longer here to defend myself.