Dear Financial Samurai,
Happy Valentine’s Day and long weekend! There is not much financial love in the air as markets wobble and industries digest the rapid advancement of AI.
First it came for writers like me, and many shrugged because they were not writers. Then it came for software engineers, and others shrugged because they were not in tech. When AI eventually comes for your profession, I hope there is still someone left to speak up.
The S&P 500 may only be down about 0.5 percent for the year and 2 percent from its all-time high, but beneath the surface entire industries are getting hit with double digit declines. At this point, I am not sure the government or anyone else can meaningfully slow what is happening.
Despite a benign January inflation report, with US CPI coming in at 2.4 percent year over year, down from 2.7 percent and below the 2.5 percent consensus, the markets still did not cheer.
That is the peril of investing in highly valued stocks. One day they are loved. The next day they are not, as their terminal values get compressed.
Private Grade School As A Luxury Expense
Just as bottled water is a luxury when there is essentially free tap water, private grade school is increasingly a luxury expense as well.
What concerns me most are the majority of households sending their kids to private school while earning middle class to upper middle class incomes without meaningful financial aid. These are also the same households who are debating whether they should enroll in the first place.
From what I have observed, about 20 percent of private school families can comfortably afford the expensive tuition. Another 20 percent receive substantial financial assistance.
That leaves the broad middle.
They earn too much to qualify for much aid if any, but not enough to pay tuition without feeling the pressure. They are often the most stressed group because the decision directly affects retirement timing and long term flexibility.
Now layer in AI.
If AI eliminates millions of entry level jobs over the next decade, the return on investment for both private grade school and college declines. Imagine spending $600,000 on private grade school followed by $400,000 on college, only for your child to move back home because the job market has shifted beneath their feet.
It is already happening. It will likely become more common.
If you are wrestling with this decision, please read: Be Careful Sabotaging Your Retirement For Private Grade School
Climbing The Socioeconomic Ladder
Most of us want to climb the socioeconomic ladder. We want our children to have upward mobility, stability, and opportunity.
Sending them to private school can feel like one way to improve their odds. But if we cannot comfortably afford the tuition, we risk sliding down the ladder instead of climbing it.
One layoff, one bear market, and a refusal to adjust tuition payments because you want “the best” for little Johnny can put serious strain on your finances. If that strain coincides with technological disruption in your own field, the recovery may not be easy.
In 2022, I believed we had perhaps 15 years to build enough wealth to protect ourselves from AI disruption. Today, for some of us, that window may be five years or less.
From 2021 through 2024, I even thought the FIRE movement was becoming obsolete. Plenty of high paying jobs no longer required going into the office. I was playing pickleball for hours on weekday afternoons with employees from Google, Uber, and Meta who were working remotely.
I started wondering what the point was of grinding so hard to escape when you could earn strong income and still have flexibility. Sign me up!
FIRE Movement Is More Important Than Ever
But in 2026, I am officially declaring that the FIRE movement is back. And it is more relevant than ever.
If AI compresses wages and eliminates roles, then ownership and savings become even more important. For your family’s financial well being, I challenge you to adopt some basic FIRE principles this year:
- Save 50 percent of your income or more, which may mean one paycheck if you are paid bi weekly.
- Cut unnecessary expenses such as unused subscriptions, clothing purchases, and memberships you rarely use.
- Sell items you have not used in six months.
- Invest in income generating assets such as dividend stocks, rental properties, private real estate, or small businesses.
- Start a side hustle to build an additional income stream.
Get comfortable with a leaner lifestyle now so you are not forced into one later.When the next wave of disruption hits, preparation will determine who feels fear and who feels opportunity.
If you want a more optimistic take on the changing landscape, please read: Maybe Escaping The Permanent Underclass Is Not Necessary After All
Understanding The Plumbing Of Publicly Traded Funds
This past week I spent far too many hours writing a detailed primer on how different types of equity funds actually trade.
I wanted to better understand the implications of the Fundrise Innovation Fund listing on the New York Stock Exchange. If you invest in ETFs, open end mutual funds, or closed end funds, understanding how they trade is foundational knowledge.
It is not the most exciting post I have written. But it may be one of the most useful if you invest in funds. The more you understand, the better investment decisions you can make.
On that note, Anthropic announced this week that it raised $30 billion in new capital at a $380 billion valuation.
Anthropic made up ~14% of the Innovation Fund in the September 2025 disclosure documents, when it was valued at roughly $183 billion. Therefore, I assume the weighting has now increased accordingly.
Please read: How ETFs, Open End Funds, Closed End Funds Actually Trade
Finally Snowing In Tahoe
We are heading to Lake Tahoe from Sunday through Friday and it is finally going to snow. I will be shutting my email down for the most part and spending time with family.
Before we go, I cannot help but chuckle at the timing. My car’s electrical issues are finally fixed, yet I may still have a minor coolant leak after replacing a hose for $225. Two weeks after installing two new tires, I picked up a nail, which cost another $65 to patch.
What a hassle. But that is life. Something always needs fixing.
One small silver lining is that these annoyances pushed me to be better prepared. I now carry a portable NOCO boost 2000 amp jumper and a portable Airmoto air pump in the car. If you drive regularly, especially with family, consider doing the same. The peace of mind alone is worth it. I am surprised I never owned either before. Note: the 1000 amp version wasn't strong enough to jump my V6, and you want a portable air pump to buy you enough air to get to a tire shop.
And while you are reviewing your emergency gear, review your financial protection too. My wife and I purchased matching 20 year term life insurance policies through Policygenius, where multiple carriers bid for your business. It was straightforward and competitive.
So much about parenting is simply risk management. We cannot prevent every breakdown, accident, or illness. But we can prepare.
If you are approaching 50, consider getting a prostate specific antigen (PSA) test through blood work and scheduling a colonoscopy. Actor James Van Der Beek, known for Dawson’s Creek, recently died of colon cancer at age 48, my age, leaving behind a wife and six children. Stories like that hit close to home.
Life is fragile.
Financial preparation does not eliminate tragedy. But it can prevent financial catastrophe from compounding emotional pain.
To your safety, healthy, and financial freedom,
Sam
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