Dear Financial Samurai,
I’m back from eight days in Honolulu visiting my parents. It was, once again, a bittersweet trip that reminded me how fleeting life is. After age 40, and certainly after 70, we are largely set in our ways. Letting things be is often the best approach.
While I was there, my handyman and I changed a couple of 50-year-old fluorescent bathroom light fixtures, fixed a closet door, repaired a broken gutter, and sanded and painted a couple of door frames so the doors could finally close again after the wood had expanded. I also helped my dad get back on cellular service with his phone and figure out how to log into Apple TV.
If your parents are still around, come up with a list of questions you have always wanted to ask them, and spread the questions out during your visit. For the longest time, I wondered whether my parents had always been this way or if their demeanor had evolved over time. We are so different as individuals. The answer is they have always been this way.
While playing pickleball at the Diamond Head courts, a fellow mentioned he had just finished relocating his 94-year-old mother to a group home. I asked him the cost, and he said it was a whopping $18,000 a month. That sent me down the rabbit hole of exploring all the options, the costs, and how to pay for it.
I am fairly certain the vast majority of families do not talk about eldercare until it is too late. It is either not top of mind or too uncomfortable a subject to bring up. If you have parents, it is worth reading my latest post and starting a discussion. The more time you have to plan, the better.
Read: The Shocking Cost Of Eldercare Nobody Talks About
Ceasefire And Back To Pre-War Highs
And just like that, the S&P 500 has rebounded to pre–Iran war levels of about 6,816. I hope you used some of your cash to buy the dip for yourself or your children. Of course, we are not out of the woods yet, with negotiations between Iran and the United States ongoing over the next two weeks during the ceasefire.
The latest reports as of Saturday evening indicate negotiations in Pakistan have hit a stalemate over control of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Financial Times. But such stalemates are to be expected.
WTI crude is hovering around $95.60 a barrel, which is a relative win. Psychologically, any price under $100 tends to be better received by the market, although it still stings to pay $0.50 to $1 more per gallon of gas. That said, I have not changed my consumption behavior one bit and still took a flight to see my parents. Have you changed?
What actually excites me is the decline in tech stock valuations, from a forward P/E of around 40 to about 20 times today, roughly in line with the S&P 500. It is an interesting setup because tech portfolios have not been cut in half year to date, as earnings are still expected to grow in the mid-teens or better. It's really only the software sector that's been smashed, largely due to companies like Anthropic releasing products that threaten existing software models.
Because valuations have come down and tech remains a large weighting in the S&P 500, I feel better about investing in the index overall. Yes, earnings could still get cut if tensions with Iran drag on. But even with a 10 percent to 20 percent earnings cut, I believe the S&P 500 can hold up and move about 7,000 by year end.
Always Use The Downturn To Reflect
Because stocks usually go up about 75% of the time in any given year, downturns are less common. However, never let a downturn go to waste, especially if you do not enjoy what you are doing and your company’s share price is falling.
When you are making money and your company’s stock price is surging, it is easier to ignore the hollowing out of your soul or the fact that the products you are building may not be the best for humanity. But once the profit motive fades, you have to ask yourself whether the time you are spending is truly worth it. And if it is not, something needs to change.
Since I started writing about FIRE in 2009, I have dealt with plenty of second-guessing and concerns about running out of money. So have countless others I have met along the way. The good thing is we adapt. If needed, we will find ways to earn more.
In my latest post, FIRE Psychology During A Downturn, I share more insights on how you might feel and act after retiring while your net worth fluctuates. What I have realized is that it is not nearly as scary as you might think.
As I reflect, I believe it is far scarier to avoid pursuing a life true to yourself. The regret of not trying can be far more painful.
The Rational Choices We Make
Recently, I spoke with a teacher who bought not one, but two Teslas. Her family took advantage of year-end sales and the EV tax credit before it expired. Smart timing.
However, the total cost still came out to about $100,000, mostly financed. Then I chatted with a dad who leased a new luxury SUV for $1,300 a month for three years.
Meanwhile, I have been wanting to buy a new car since July 2025, when my current car turned 10 years old. But I still cannot pull the trigger because I feel like an idiot spending so much on a depreciating asset. It is a fascinating spending juxtaposition.
Everyone is free to spend their money however they want. But if your goal is to achieve financial freedom sooner, you have to keep your fixed costs low. That means locking down your housing expenses and minimizing car payments as much as possible.
Check out the post and embedded video: Your Car Payment Is A Huge Roadblock To Financial Freedom
Protecting Life
After spending time with my parents and thinking more deeply about eldercare, one thing became clear. We spend so much time trying to build wealth, yet far less time protecting it.
If you have people who depend on you, or you anticipate helping care for aging parents, it is worth taking a few minutes to review your insurance coverage. Life insurance, in particular, is one of the simplest ways to provide financial security during uncertain times.
You can check out Policygenius to compare quotes across multiple insurers and find coverage that fits your needs and budget. It is quick, transparent, and can give you peace of mind knowing your family has a financial backstop no matter what happens.
Time To Rest
I got back at 6:30 a.m. on Saturday after taking a 10:05 p.m. Friday red-eye. Surprisingly, I did not sleep a minute. Instead, I watched One Battle After Another, which won the Oscar for Best Picture and was far better than expected. The movie was criticized relentlessly on X, but Sean Penn was incredible.
Then I watched The Housemaid, which I found both creepy and oddly satisfying.
Have a great week everyone!
To your financial freedom,
Sam
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