Even if the Fed hikes rates, it may have little impact on borrowing costs for mortgages.
In general, the Fed is behind the curve when it comes to hiking rates. And that's understandable. The Fed would rather be a little too slow in hiking rates than a little too fast in order to help our economy survive a pandemic.
Put another way, which would you rather have, higher inflation and a stronger labor market, or lower inflation and a weaker labor market? The former is usually preferred. In an ideal world, the Fed would love to have 2%-2.5% inflation and 3.5% – 4% unemployment levels.
But the reality is, the upcoming Fed rate hikes may have a negligible impact on your finances, especially if you have been a regular Financial Samurai reader. Fed rate hikes won't make borrowing costs that much greater. Therefore, for those of you who like to take out credit card debt, auto loans, student loans, and mortgage rates, I wouldn't worry too much.
Let's break down how Fed rate hikes will affect borrowing costs for each category.
How Fed Rate Hikes Affect Credit Cards
Since most personal finance enthusiasts don't carry a revolving credit card balance, Fed rate hikes don't matter for credit cards. Besides payday loans, credit card debt is the worst type of debt.
However, if you do carry a revolving credit card balance, you are likely paying an APR of between 16% – 17%. An average credit card interest rate of 16% – 17% is highway robbery when the 10-year bond yield is at only 2% and the Fed Funds rate is less than that. The historical annual return of the S&P 500 is about 10%, which makes paying 16% – 17% even more egregious.
Stop making credit card companies rich. Instead, make yourself rich by shunning credit card debt and investing over the long term instead. OK, enough about encouraging folks not to take on credit card debt.
Credit cards have a variable rate that follows the short end of the yield curve. The Fed Funds rate is at the shortest end of the yield curve. Specifically, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. This means credit card interest rates will likely increase by a similar magnitude as the latest Fed Funds rate hike.
So if you're paying a 16% APR, you will likely start paying a 16.25% APR after the Fed hikes by 25 basis points. Can you really tell the difference if you carry revolving credit card debt? Unlikely. On a $10,000 credit card balance, your interest payment will go up by a mere $25 a year. Even a 1% interest rate hike is only an extra $100 a year. And that is if you hold the entire balance all year.
Pay Down Your Credit Card Debt Or Consolidate ASAP
Given you know credit card interest rates are going up, if you have credit card debt, get motivated to pay down more credit card debt ASAP. Unless you also have payday loans, it is likely your most expensive debt.
If you are having a difficult time paying down your credit card debt, you should be able to consolidate your debt by getting a personal loan at a lower interest rate. The average personal loan rate is much lower than the average credit card rate. You can check the latest personal loan rates on Credible.
How Fed Rate Hikes Affect Auto loans
Getting an auto loan is not a great idea given you're buying an asset that is guaranteed to depreciate. Further, with gas prices so high, your ongoing ownership cost of a car is now higher. That said, if you need a car then you need a car.
A Fed rate hike won't have a material effect on auto loans either. First of all, once you lock in your auto loan, the interest rate is generally fixed for the life of the loan.
Let's say you buy a new $40,000 vehicle and put down $5,000. You borrow $35,000 over a 60-month period at a 3% interest rate. After taxes and fees, your monthly auto loan bill is $629. If the Fed ends up hiking the Fed Funds rate by 1% over the next 12 months, your auto loan payment will still be the same.
If you plan to buy the same car with the same conditions after a 1% increase in the auto loan rate, your monthly payment goes to $652.51 from $629. Not that big of a deal.
Ideally, you buy a car equal to 1/10th of your annual gross income and pay cash. Even if you take an auto loan or lease a car in this price range, the monthly payments will be negligible.
If you do lease a car, please be aware of the early termination penalties and ways you can get out of a lease. A lease is usually not the most cost-effective way to buy a car. But it makes getting rid of your car easier. Further, if you own a business, you can write off some or all of your lease payments and other costs of owning the vehicle.
Below is a great chart on historical average U.S. national gas prices. Given we're much wealthier on average since 2008 and 2011, the last years gas prices got this high, higher gas prices shouldn't negatively affect us as much.
How Fed Rate Hikes Affect Mortgages
One of the biggest misunderstandings in personal finance is that the Federal Reserve controls mortgage rates. This is not true. The Fed has some influence over mortgage rates, but not nearly as much as the bond market does.
Mortgage rates more closely follow the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is at the long end of the yield curve. If you're thinking about getting a 5/1 ARM, 7/1 ARM, 10/1 ARM, 15-year fixed, or 30-year fixed mortgage, a Fed rate hike doesn't matter so much. These types of mortgages are more affected by the 10-year Treasury bond yield.
If you were able to get a 1/1 ARM or a mortgage that adjusts every month, then your mortgage would see a stronger correlation with the Fed Funds rate. But most people in America get mortgage rates with fixed rates of three years and longer and mortgages that amortize over a 30-year period.
However, higher Fed Funds rates will impact ARMs once their fixed-rate period expires. This is because most ARMs are based on a short-term rate index like LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) that moves with the Fed Funds rate. These mortgages are often priced at LIBOR + a margin.
Below is an example of an adjustable-rate mortgage of 2.375% based on a one-year LIBOR + 2.25% margin. The most it can increase during year six is by 2.25%. And the maximum interest rate it will go to is 7.375%. I explain the process of an adjustable-rate mortgage increase if you're interested.
Preferred Types Of Mortgages
I prefer getting an ARM over a 30-year fixed mortgage due to the long-term downward trend of interest rates. More than likely, you will be able to refinance your ARM to the same rate or a lower rate before the fixed-rate period expires.
However, if you have the cash flow, getting a 15-year fixed mortgage will save you the most in interest. Further, you'll more than likely pay off your mortgage sooner. The downside is having less money to invest in investments that may provide a greater return.
If you have a home equity line of credit (HELOC), it is pegged to the prime rate plus a margin. So when the Fed hikes rates, the HELOC adjusts immediately. Please use your HELOC responsibly.
If you're looking to compare mortgage rates, you can check here. If the Fed indeed raises the Fed Funds rate by 1% – 1.75% over the next two years, as some have forecast, there will be upward pressure on mortgage rates. Therefore, you may want to refinance now.
Even though the Fed has hiked rates aggressively since 2022, I don't regret getting an ARM. The reason why is because I'm saving money and will have sold the house before my ARM expires.
How Fed Rate Hikes Affect Student loans
Given federal students loan rates are fixed, borrowers won't be immediately impacted by a Fed rate hike. Private student loans, on the other hand, may be fixed or variable. Therefore, if you have a private student loan, you need to check how its interest rate is determined. Give the loan processor a ring and ask.
I'd try and refinance your student loan to a lower fixed rate if possible. Refinancing to a lower variable rate may not make sense given variable rates will go up.
How Fed Rate Hikes Affect Savings Rate
Savings rates are pitifully low. The current nationwide average savings rate is only about 0.06%. The average online savings rate is about 0.5%.
There is a correlation between savings rates and the Fed Funds rate. However, the correlation is not strong. Banks tend to lag way behind Fed rate hikes when it comes to raising deposit rates.
Check out this striking chart below. Notice how the national rate on non-jumbo deposits didn't move despite the Fed hiking rates five times in two years.
Theoretically, net interest margins should increase as banks get to charge higher lending rates while maintaining their cost of funds. This is why conventional wisdom says to buy banks during a rising interest rate cycle. However, investment returns are obviously not guaranteed.
You can't blame the banks for trying to maximize profits. It's the same with gas stations slowly lowering their prices but quickly raising their prices. Businesses usually seek to make the most money possible.
Don't expect your savings rate to go up as the Fed hikes rates. View your savings at a bank not as a way to make a return, but as a way to provide liquidity and peace of mind. Yes, your savings get hurt by elevated inflation. However, earning a 0.5% nominal return is better than losing 20%+ in a bear market. Meanwhile, short-term CD rates should tick higher with higher Fed Funds rates.
How Fed Rate Hikes Affect Stock Margin Loans
The Fed has little effect on stock margin loan rates. Instead, stock margin loan rates are more determined by your collateral, the size of the loan, and how much risk the brokerage wants to take.
The brokerage sets the interest rate for the loan by establishing a base rate and either adding or subtracting a percentage based on the size of the loan. The larger the margin loan, the lower the margin interest rate.
Margin is the borrowing of money from your broker to buy a stock using your investment as collateral. Investors use margin to increase their purchasing power. However, I'm not a fan of going on margin to buy stocks given stocks are more volatile and provide no utility.
Tough Economic Conditions For The Federal Reserve To Navigate
The Federal Reserve should raise rates to help tame inflation. However, the Fed has to be careful raising rates too much and too quickly. Otherwise, it may help push our economy into a recession. If a recession happens, mass layoffs are sure to follow, which will increase the unemployment rate.
The hope is that higher energy prices are temporary and will abate once the tragic war started by Russia is over. A decline in stock prices should slow down marginal consumption by stock investors (~56% of Americans). Further, the pace of housing price appreciation should also slow as mortgage rates and housing prices rise.
In other words, the economy tends to be self-correcting. The Fed's job is to engineer softer landings instead of having our economy go through boom-bust cycles. Four-to-six rate hikes in 12 months at 25 basis points (0.25%) each is nice and steady. Let’s see if the bond market agrees.
Perhaps the biggest threat to our economy is those consumers who've already taken on too much debt. Fed rate hikes could push some of these consumers into default, which could cause a cascade effect and hurt even the strongest consumer.
Therefore, it's up to all of us to encourage everyone to be more careful taking on debt. Debt is more digestible when times are good. But once times turn bad, too much debt can crush your finances in a hurry.
Readers, are you doing anything with your debt now that the Fed has started hiking interest rates? How many times and how much do you think the Fed should hike rates? In the next article, we'll discuss how stocks have historically performed during a Fed rate-hike cycle.
For more nuanced personal finance content, join 60,000+ others and sign up for the free Financial Samurai newsletter. Get your posts in your inbox by signing up here.
Great article! I am considering a rate lock as the rate is trending higher. Should I go for a 5/6 ARAM ( 3.25% after 1.481 points at $5,924) or a 30 Years FIXED (4% after 1.79 points at $7,120)
Great article!
I have a significant amount of debt on my HELOC ~170k. Any suggestions on how to move this to a fixed interest rate debt vehicle/ variable rate alternative that is not in lockstep with the Feds Fund Rate ?
Consolidating with primary mortgage not really an option as have a 30 yr FRM at 2.875% and my HELOC debt is much smaller than the primary mortgage debt.
Do you think it’s worthwhile to refinance ARMs? I have a 5/6 struck last year at 2.25. My plan was to just get another one in 5 years time but the planned increases have me a bit concerned. I wonder whether to refinance or wait. I have some buffer to pay down mortgage if needed.
No, I would hold onto it for several more years, as by then, the rate hike cycle will have stopped. The rate is fine and you’ll have a better idea in four years what to do.
I think your post does a great job of explaining the impacts. I also think you’re correct that it does not impact the average consumer in a drastic fashion.
I question your thoughts on the impact to mortgage rates. You’re absolutely right that the Fed Funds Rate does not directly impact mortgage rates. The best rate to track is the 10 year treasury. Biggest question will be how many rate increases are already priced in. With the 2-10 treasury spread at .17%. we’re faced with two possibilities: a flat or negative yield curve, which could signal a recession very soon; or a big increase in long term rates, which will have an impact on mortgage rates.
Both of those could be trouble which will send shock waves through the economy, and likely will have an impact on the consumer.
I think a 1.5% Fed funds rate breaks the debt markets. The PhDs at the Eccles are playing a dangerous game into slowing GDP and generally tightening financial conditions.
1.5%? Nah. That’s still quite low, especially if inflation stays above 5%.
But hopefully, inflation comes back down quicker (look at oil prices crash so quickly again) and the Fed slows down before 1.5%. Let’s see.
Regarding getting out of lease or any new car loan for that matter. The current high value of used cars means that, more than likely, you are in a positive equity position.
These days, there’s no need to terminate your lease or loan. Shop around at Carvana or even the dealer, and they’ll be eager to buy it outright with cash left over. If your lease is coming to an end, it’s more profitable to buy it out and sell it than straight up turn it in.
Have used cars held their value or appreciated that much after driving a leased car for 3 years? If so, fascinating. Will look into it more.
Yes. This is primarily due to residual values (the anticipated value of vehicle at lease end) being underestimated in 2019. For example, you have lease customers who bought a $40,000 car and have been paying their lease on the assumption that it would be worth $15,000 less when they turn it in in 3 years. Lease Payments = $15,000 / 36 monthly payments. But due to “unprecedented times” and an inventory shortage, dealers are starving for vehicles; so the vehicle has only depreciated $5,000. At lease end, the customer has the right to buy the car at the original residual value (Price at time of lease minus sum of payments), which is $25,000. Turn around and sell it tomorrow for $35,000 to Carvana or the dealer.
In a way, customers have accidentally shorted the stock value of their vehicle and come up big :)
I had this happen to me back in 2009 when gas went way back up – I had done a 0 down lease on a civic about 18 months earlier when gas was a lot cheaper and ended up making $2,500 ending the lease earlier to trade it in (would have been more if sold private party). But its pretty amazing that most leases 3 years ago are like this now!
Just saw the chart on used car prices being up ~30-40% over the past two years. Incredible. If we’re driving for free, then who cares about higher gas prices?
I already refinanced portions of my debt in 2021 and 2022 at 1.84% and 2.89% for a fixed-term 5 years. Other maturities are in 2023. Will see what to do with market conditions at that time.
Hopefully, they will raise rate slower than they expect. And maybe it will not affect longer term rates. But if rates raise too much, I can easily pay it down. So, I will decide according to market conditions at that time.
As of this morning, I have $0 debt.
I don’t think it’s ever a bad time to get out of paying someone else interest.
I had some spirited discussions with friends about me maxing my 401k and then directing every spare dollar to my mortgage.
So I was able to save at a high rate while paying off debt while sacrificing trinkets from Amazon.
For me , debt free living provides options.
I refied to a 20yr fixed @ 2.6% in January 2021. I’m paying just a bit more towards principal to balance between debt payoff and investing.
Thanks for the thorough post Sam! I plan to keep paying down more principal on my mortgage, but I was planning on doing that regardless of the Fed rate hikes. It always feels good to pay down debt especially when the markets are not going in our favor. As for the Fed, if I were to take a wild guess, I’d say they’ll raise rates 3 more times this year at 25bps each.
With negative mortgage rates, I wouldn’t be in a rush to pay down mortgage debt. However, so far, paying down mortgage dad has been better than investing in stocks in 2022!
Only three rate hikes this year would be interesting. But it’s better than nothing. We need to normalize rates now.
Paying down mortgage debt that’s at 3-4% makes little sense in normal (stable, predictable) geopolitical period. However watching Canada freeze bank accounts and asset strip of those accused, not convicted under law, is a giant red flashing light that all is not well in the banking and leadership cabals. Seeing assets of certain foreign individuals frozen by the US Government, again with no formal conviction in a court of law, because we don’t like the actions taken by the president of their country is anther example. I sleep very well at night knowing that there is no mortgage. Of course there is still property tax rent.
The banking system is turning into a control system, not for the better. Only use the banking/finance system once you own all you need and have it in your possession. Put extra monies in “their” system. One day a political party may decide to freeze you out!
You don’t like that Canada froze Russian accounts or the ones of local terrorists, blocking Ottawa with their trucks?
I don’t like governments freezing anyone’s account without due process. I agree with Take It and Seal it – this cancel culture is now extending into the real world and the implications are quite scary. I try to look at things like this without caring about the political affiliation. For example, if you were OK with the truckers assets being freezed, were you also OK with the BLM protesters assets being freezed as they actually did significant physical destruction across north america vs very little with the truckers. The western world used to be a rule of law but I fear more and more is going toward mob rule – and it won’t always be your “team” behind the mob.
As to Sam’s article and comment, I agree – this FFR increase isn’t going to impact things, especially as the US Bond market has already gone up the equiv of 6 rate hikes in the last 7 months. And it is hard to justify paying extra on your 2-3% mortgage when inflation is at 8%+.
I agree with Rob.
I see this sentiment a lot. Paying down debt FEELS good when the markets are not going in our favor, but rationally shouldn’t it be the opposite? When markets are reaching all time highs, you should be allocating more dollars to pay down debt (sell high) and when markets are in a slump, it’s a better time to keep or take out debt and put it in the market (buy low).
5 months ago I saw a lot of “maybe now is the time to take out a margin loan to put into the market” and now I see a lot of “should I pull my money out.” Obviously the markets could dip more, but that psychology should be reverse. Curious for Sam’s thoughts
Exactly like you say. I scrape some change today and bought another 1000$ of Alibaba at 75$.
Next step is remortgage my house to buy more. I could be forced to do that if Alibaba goes below 70$… But who knows where is the real bottom ? I already thought it couldn’t go below 86$. And here we are.
But I agree with everything you say in your comment.