Dear Financial Samurai,
The unemployment rate is back up to 4.2% after a dismal July jobs report showing only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100,000 forecast. But the bigger story is in the downward revisions:
- June: 147K → 14K
- May: 139K → 19K
- April: 177K → 158K
- March: 228K → 120K
- February: 151K → 102K
- January: 143K → 111K
I get that every monthly jobs report is just an estimate by the BLS. But when the actual numbers come in 80%–90% lower—as they did in June and May—what’s going on? If a business missed projections this badly, they’d go bankrupt. Sure, we can give the government a little leeway—they’re managing with less efficiency and none of their own money—but these miscalculations are egregious.
Markets responded in kind: the odds of a Fed rate cut in September shot up from under 10% after Powell’s comments to 80% post-July report. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield plunged 14 basis points to 4.22%, a welcome boost for housing.
Life-Changing Money
This week was especially exciting for those of us invested in Figma (FIG). The company IPO’d at $33 and closed at $122, valuing it at over $50 billion—$30+ billion more than Adobe’s failed acquisition price just a few years ago.
My softball buddy joined Figma when it was worth ~$550 million. At a $59 billion valuation, his shares are likely worth $20–$40 million today. Not bad for six years of work!
People often ask why I’m still in expensive San Francisco when I could live anywhere for less. The answer: opportunity. It’s like getting up to bat and always having a runner on base.The potential to generate outsized returns in SF still far outweighs the cost of living here. Building a powerful network is just easier in a boomtown.
But there’s a tradeoff: a constant mental grind to earn more, because here, no matter how much you make, someone always makes more. This contrast hit harder after spending five weeks in Honolulu. On the pickleball courts, the only topics were the game and lifestyle. In SF, it’s always about deals and business.
See: The Richest People In The World Are Not Index Fund Fanatics
Venture Capital Fund Returns from Figma
Check out the returns below from the VC funds that backed Figma. Even at the IPO price (which is ~75% below current trading), these funds saw returns of 1.5 – 18X, from just one position. Now triple those numbers at current prices.
But here’s the rub: unless you know a General Parter or analyst, it’s incredibly difficult to get access to these funds. And even if you do in the friends & family round, your allocation depends on who you are. I was able to invest $150K in a Kleiner fund based on the GP’s suggestion—my friend, a public company CEO, got to invest $1 million.
This gatekeeping is exactly why I’m excited about Fundrise’s venture capital platform. No 20%–35% carry. Open access with as little as $10. More importantly, their portfolio includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Canva, Anduril, and others, all of which I want to own.
The Figma IPO was 40X oversubscribed and surged 122% on debut. Rather than chasing overpriced IPO shares, I’d much rather own equity in companies like this before they go public. In hindsight, my biggest mistake was not allocating more of my investable capital to venture. I’m now correcting that by deploying another $35,000 just last week.
A Reminder Why Work Can Be Difficult Sometimes
If there’s one key takeaway from July’s disappointing jobs report—likely to be revised down—it’s this: don’t lose your job. We’re in the thick of a white-collar recession, with job growth mostly concentrated in healthcare. Meanwhile, AI is empowering managers to do more with less.
Longtime readers know I returned to part-time work at a fintech startup a couple of years ago. I lasted only four months. The endless meetings wore me out, and the micromanagement was stifling. So I left. But what I didn’t mention at the time was the final straw that pushed me away from ever wanting to return to their office.
Now that the startup has been acquired and no longer exists, I can share more openly. The experience was a stark reminder of how exhausting it can be to constantly bite your tongue or try to fit in—especially when you feel disrespected. Still, if you need the money or the healthcare benefits, many people understandably grit their teeth and endure until something better comes along.
After you read my post, How Cultural Differences Can Hurt Your Chances In The Workplace, I’d love to hear what you would have done in those same situations.
The Shocking Power of a Different Perspective
Besides renovating a two-bedroom in-law unit, patching a hole in the garage, replacing two entryway light fixtures, and fixing a leaky ceiling at my parents’ house over the past three years, I recently made a purchase for them that might yield the greatest return of all.
That purchase made me reflect on something deeper: as we age, we may gradually lose the will to fight for better conditions. We accept things as they are. Seeing water drip from my own kitchen ceiling would drive me crazy—I’d fix it that same week, no matter the cost. But not my parents. They lived with it.
So when I noticed something wrong with an item they use daily—something they never complained about—I realized how powerful it can be to get a different perspective. Sometimes we’re too close to the problem to see clearly.
The same idea applies to investing. Back in 2017, I started contributing to my son’s 529 plan. If I had consulted someone else at the time, I likely wouldn’t have chosen a target-date fund with a 20% bond allocation—not with an 18-year time horizon. I didn’t think it through because I was in the whirlwind of being a new dad. The result? The 529 is now $100,000 lower than it would be had I gone 100% S&P 500. Painful, but a good lesson.
Read the post: The Shocking Power Of Getting A Different Perspective
Get a Free Financial Consultation from Empower
’m still on break from offering one-on-one financial consulting, but you can get a free financial analysis from Empower instead. If you have over $100,000 in investable assets—whether in taxable accounts, savings, 401(k)s, or IRAs—an Empower financial advisor can review your portfolio at no cost. There’s no obligation—just a chance to get a second opinion from a seasoned professional.
Empower’s advisors build and analyze portfolios every day. They may uncover hidden fees, suboptimal allocations, or missed opportunities to strengthen your financial plan. Even if you feel confident, a fresh perspective can often reveal what you’ve overlooked.
This referral is brought to you by Financial Samurai, in partnership with Empower Advisory Group.
August is traditionally a rocky month for the stock market. But I’ll be aggressively buying if we get below 6,000 again in the S&P 500.
To your financial freedom.
Sam
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