Dear Financial Samurai,
School is back in session for us, and it was nice to have a three-day break to focus on other things after a long summer. My new tenants just moved into my old place, and I've already been asked to pay for mulching the front yard—even though it’s not in the lease. Sigh. On the brighter side, I also found some time to brainstorm ideas for my third traditionally published book.
If you’re a parent, I highly recommend creating your own Daddy or Mommy Day Camp for a week (or longer) during the next school break. It’s a wonderful way to pass down your skills and wisdom, deepen your bond, and save a lot of money. For perspective, private pickleball and tennis lessons in San Francisco run between $100–$140 per hour per person. If you’ve got two or more kids, the savings add up quickly!
Of course, your patience will be tested to the max, but whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. Better to go through the chaos than end up like one dad I know who admitted he didn’t realize his daughter couldn’t read in 2nd grade—because he’d been reading to her (and with her) for the past seven years.
Check out: Daddy Day Camp: Worth Trying At Least Once As A FIRE Parent. With Monday off, what better time to give it a try?
Accelerating GDP Estimate For 3Q 2025
The big economic news that caught my attention last week was the Atlanta Fed raising its 3Q GDP growth forecast from 2.5% to 3.5%. The revision came mainly from stronger estimates for personal consumption expenditures and direct investment growth.
If this plays out, it sets up a powerful tailwind for corporate earnings, while also increasing inflationary pressures. Yet, despite this, markets are currently pricing in an 87% probability that the Fed cuts rates next month. Fascinating dynamic, right?
The bottom line: I’m buying any stock market dip. Even with stretched valuations, earnings growth could surprise on the upside and lower valuations over time.
On top of that, accelerating GDP growth, potentially lower mortgage rates, and the gradual absorption of the 2021–2023 housing oversupply have me buying back into residential commercial real estate as well. Since the Fed started aggressively jacking up interest rates in 2022, the mantra for CRE investors has been “survive until 2025.” Well, we're here, and it finally seems like the tide is turning.
Failing The Investing FOMO Test
As someone who’s been trying to spend more and obsess less about investing, I was recently put to the test with a $102,000 expiring Treasury bill. The proceeds came from my ~35% bond allocation in my taxable portfolio.
This was my chance to YOLO—a new pair of tennis shoes, a nice watch, or maybe even a new car to replace my 10-year-old one.
But alas, I couldn’t bring myself to buy something completely unnecessary with zero chance of generating passive income or returns. Freedom is simply too alluring than a closet full of unwork shoes! So, instead, I did the boring but responsible thing and checked out the latest bond yield table on Fidelity. That’s when I saw the enticing 5% yield on 20-year Treasury bonds.
If you’re a retiree who trusts the 4% Rule, then by definition, if you earn a greater return than your withdrawal rate, you’ll never run out of money. Sure, inflation will eat away at purchasing power over the next 20 years. But your principal remains untouched.
So here’s the takeaway from my new post: 20-Year Treasury Bonds Look Attractive For Retirees. If I were to reinvest the entire $102,000 into them, I’d lock in about $6,000 a year in risk-free, state-tax-free income.
But… you’ll have to read the post to see what I actually did instead.
Speaking Of Housing
With interest rate cuts back on the table, I suspect I’ll be writing more about real estate going forward. My crystal ball is flashing a strong Spring 2026 housing market, so I want to get in front of the action.
The latest news about embattled Fed Governor Lisa Cook potentially committing mortgage fraud is an interesting one. While the Fed has been keeping rates elevated for the rest of us, Lisa may have been gaming the system to save on mortgage interest and property taxes.
It reminds me of Tim Geithner (aka “Turbotax Timmy”), the 9th President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who claimed he made “unintentional” errors when it was discovered he failed to pay $35,000 in Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes from 2001 through 2004 while working at the International Monetary Fund.
We’re told we have the smartest, most powerful people running the financial system, yet they somehow don’t know how to manage their own finances like the top 0.1% they are. Or… maybe they know exactly what they’re doing.
Either way, I thought this controversy would be a great opportunity to dive into owner-occupancy fraud—why people do it, how the gray area works, and most importantly, the legal workaround that lets the rest of us save more money. If you're planning on taking advantage of the current softness in the housing market by buying before Spring 2026, click on the above link.
Back To Family Time
I hope everyone enjoys the long weekend. As a parent, it sometimes feels like the breaks are never ending. But one day they’ll be gone, and we’ll look back and wonder if we truly made the most of them.
To Your Financial Freedom,
Sam
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This is the August 31, 2025 Financial Samurai newsletter. All rights reserved.