Dear Financial Samurai,
We made it back from Tahoe, and I have to say, it wasn't the best situation. We had more snowfall this week than anywhere on Earth. However, we could not fully enjoy it because there was simply too much snow.
We only did three runs on Monday before deciding to take the kids in due to blizzard conditions. Then the top of the mountain was shut down for the next three days, which meant the kids could not practice because all of the green runs were up there.
So I did what any restless dad would do and pushed the kids up the hill 8 times so they could get some short runs in. Better than nothing.
Finally, on Friday, it was a bluebird day. But the shuttle from our hotel to the Palisades Village had a 100 person line and a 30 to 40 minute ride once you got on because the parking lot was packed. So we decided to forget it and take the ski in ski out Resort Chair run instead, a hard blue run, and challenge the kids who had never tried it.
Thankfully, they made it down unharmed. Now they have the experience and courage to tackle a hard blue. Which got me thinking about one thing: get good enough at something so you have more options. This goes for everything in life. The people who could not ski the hard blue had to wait an extra 90 minutes just to get on the mountain.
Miscalibrating The Risks Everywhere
The other thing I tried to block out was the fact that eight people died in an avalanche several miles away. Then two skiers died at Heavenly Resort, followed by another two at Northstar, all in the same week in Tahoe.
With heavy powder, people came out in force to have fun. But the risk of having fun also has a cost which I'm not sure all of us were properly calibrating. There was avalanche risk, collision risk on the slopes with so many people on limited open runs, and driving risk with icy road conditions.
I am not sure we will go back right before a major storm again. Only after. And as a parent, I am glad I locked in a 20 year term life insurance policy with Policygenius during COVID. I suggest you consider doing the same.
The next time you pursue fun, be realistic about the consequences. Make contingency plans and stay protected.
Markets Like The Supreme Court Ruling
The biggest news of the week was the Supreme Court striking down a swath of President Trump’s tariffs, paving the way for businesses to potentially reclaim billions of dollars in paid tariffs.
This is good news for company profits. And what is good for profits is good for share prices, since earnings drive more than 80 percent of stock performance over time.
It is unclear whether there will be $133 billion worth of tariff refunds. But at least companies may not feel compelled to pay new tariffs. That said, Trump said he would sign an order to impose a 15 percent global tariff under a different authority.
Whatever happens, 15 percent does not sound like much anymore compared to the 25 percent to 100 percent tariff rates imposed in the past. And now that investors see more checks and balances, there is less economic and policy uncertainty that could upend the stock market.
In other words, the chance of another April 2025 Liberation Day type event, when stocks tanked by about 20 percent in a single month, has declined. If there is less inflation pressure on goods, consumers benefit as well and the Fed has more leeway to cut rates further.
If we can just get through the next two months with only a 5% correction (bottom out a ~6,600), I will feel more confident about the rest of the year's stock market performance.
Forget Learn To Code
For the past 10+ years, the mantra to students and adults looking to level up their skills and make more money was simple: learn to code. But with AI now able to handle much of the coding, learning to code is no longer the golden ticket it once was.
According to SignalFire’s analysis of 650 million LinkedIn profiles, new graduates now comprise just 7 percent of new hires at Big Tech companies, down from 25 percent in 2023 and over 50 percent before the pandemic.
Imagine getting fired up in high school to become a software engineer, earning straight As and top 1 percent test scores to get into MIT. Then borrowing $200,000 for tuition, only to struggle to land that dream software engineering job building features designed to make users more addicted to a platform. What a letdown. Or maybe not.
It got me thinking about when I took a leap of faith in 2012 and left my well-paying finance job. What was the one skill I could rely on to survive? That skill was investing.
So forget “learn to code.” If you want to survive the AI crush, learn to invest.
Check out: Becoming A Competent Investor Is A Vital Skill To Master
Bidding War Season Returns In Housing
Please share what you are seeing in your housing market. Here in San Francisco, any decent property seems to get snapped up within a week. I am also seeing some outrageous bidding wars (the post shares tips on how to properly compete).
Here is an example: a four bedroom, three and a half bathroom, 3,434 square foot remodeled house on a 3,123 square foot lot in Noe Valley. It was listed on February 11, 2026 for $5,898,000, which already seemed high for a house with no view and only a slightly larger than normal lot, given 2,500 square feet is standard.
The house went into contract immediately and closed in one week for a staggering $7,250,000.
Imagine a couple who met at a top 10 university and landed $150,000 jobs 14 years ago. Today, at 37, their combined household income is $1,200,000 as senior directors at Meta and Google. They have one child and are expecting another. They want more space.
This is their dream home, and frankly, the best they feel they can afford. They submit a $6 million offer with a $3 million down payment, a 30 day close, and no contingencies. Yet they get blown out by a 30 year old early employee at OpenAI who submits an all cash offer with a seven day close.
That is what is happening here in San Francisco. And honestly, I am not sure many of us would look at this house and think it is the dream home we would buy if we had $7.25 million.
In the spirit of bidding wars, I want to share what may be the rarest attribute for a single family home in a big city. I am not sure buyers fully appreciate this nuance, but it can help a home command a significant premium in the future.
See: The Rarest Homes Have Enclosed Front And Back Yards
Back To Normal This Next Week
The kids have been out of school since February 12, and today is the last day of homeschooling and vacation (for them). It is funny, but if you are a FIRE parent, their vacation days are your workdays as a homeschool teacher and day camp instructor.
Starting Monday, it is back to having more free time to write, read, and relax. For those who completed their free Empower financial review, including the second call, please do not forget to send me your mailing address for a signed copy of Millionaire Milestones. I will be heading to the post office this Friday, February 27.
I am also scheduled for another call (my 3rd in 13 years) with Empower this Thursday because I am looking for ideas on what to do with my rollover IRA, which is 100 percent in equities and 60 percent in tech. Since I left work in 2012, I have treated it more or less like my high-risk punt fund. But after the past three years of gains, diversification feels prudent.
For insights into what the call entails and instructions for the signed book promotion, you can check out my post.
To your financial freedom,
Sam
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