Dear Financial Samurai,
The economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, the biggest decline since October. All told, employers added only about 6,000 jobs a month over the last three months, roughly in line with the 10,000 jobs per month added in 2025.
Meanwhile, the bombings rage on in the Middle East, with Trump unwilling to negotiate until there is absolute surrender. As a result, oil has topped $90 and could head to $100 if the conflict drags on. That said, expectations were set for four to five weeks, and we’re only in the second week.
With the stock market no longer performing, investors are starting to look toward safe havens like real estate and cash.
Somewhat surprisingly, Treasury bonds have been shunned, driving the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.18% at one point. I suppose the current thinking is that rising oil prices are highly inflationary. But given I don’t see higher oil prices as permanent, I’m a buyer of Treasury bonds. They look attractive compared to the roughly 3.3% yield on money market funds.
I’ve been buying every 1%+ stock market dip, to zero gain so far as the market keeps whipping around. I have 6,600 on the S&P 500 as my correction bottom, so we're getting close.
On Monday, we could easily rocket higher if Iran completely surrenders (doubtful). Or the S&P 500 could sell off another 2%+ if oil continues rising. I thought the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) providing political risk insurance for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would calm oil prices and markets more than it has so far.
Medium term, I have to imagine that U.S. military ship escorts and a depleting Iranian missile stockpile will eventually calm markets. But for now, the market is starting to price in stagflation again, which is often worse than a recession.
Hug Your Real Estate Holdings Tightly
Real estate, especially commercial real estate, has had a rough run since the Fed began aggressively hiking rates in 2022. However, both residential and commercial real estate are back on investors’ radars.
It’s hard to pick the right AI winners, especially private ones, since not everyone has access to invest. However, there are no gatekeepers when it comes to real estate, other than having money and competency.
Therefore, one of the easiest ways to profit from the AI boom is to simply buy well-located real estate in cities where AI companies are being built. It’s the classic picks-and-shovels strategy, where you don’t really care who wins. You just care that the entire industry grows.
I spoke with a top-tier San Francisco agent last week. She said:
“This is the most number of buyers I’ve ever seen in my career. People are jumping off the sidelines to buy before AI companies IPO. Then there are the AI employees themselves getting liquid and buying homes after secondary sales. Meanwhile, supply remains tight.”
As the brainiacs battle for supremacy, it’s best to own the assets they will eventually want to buy.
Check out: Real Estate Is The Safest And Easiest Way To Profit From AI
Anthropic Wins
Last week, I questioned whether Anthropic would win or lose after being blacklisted by the Department of War. I suggested that despite losing the contract, the company might gain goodwill and publicity that could win it more business in the future.
Well, the market has clearly spoken. So far, Anthropic appears to be the winner of the DoW debacle.
Anthropic became the #1 downloaded app in the Apple App Store for eight straight days, rising from #6. Its revenue is now on track to surpass a $19 billion run rate, up from about $14 billion just several weeks ago.
Meanwhile, OpenAI has a revenue run rate of about $25 billion, but raised capital at a $740 billion valuation, while Anthropic raised at roughly $380 billion. That suggests meaningful upside to Anthropic’s valuation, especially if its revenue surpasses OpenAI’s within the next year or two.
In secondary markets, I’m seeing shares of both companies trading at about 40% premiums to their last funding rounds.
Ironically, besides real estate, cash, and bonds, dominant private AI companies might also act as a type of safe haven.
I recently wrote a comparison between Robinhood Venture Fund I and Fundrise's venture product to see whether investors can learn anything ahead of Fundrise’s expected listing.
Ultimately, Robinhood’s venture vehicle is structurally similar, but the portfolio is very different. It’s much more fintech and payments heavy, which is fine, but not nearly as exciting as AI.
Check out: How Robinhood's Venture Fund Listing Could Affect Fundrise Venture
Enjoy Your Returns
Finally, I want to remind everyone to enjoy their investment returns every year, not just once in a blue moon.
Don’t just calculate how many months or years your returns have saved you from working. Go out and buy something that genuinely improves the quality of your life.
Otherwise, what’s the point of investing in equities? They provide no utility on their own.
Personally, I don’t have many wants, except for my wife and children to be healthy, happy, and live meaningful lives. But at the end of last year, I finally bought something I really wanted.
So far, I have zero regrets, especially with the world falling apart again.
Check out: Treat Yourself To A Luxury Expense To Make Investing Worthwhile
To your financial freedom,
Sam
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