This post was published on March 18, 2020 when the stock market was falling apart. My goal was to help people feel more calm by going through a logical analysis of predicting when the bleeding would stop. I also provide an update on what my views are on stocks at the end of this post.

Are you wondering when the stock market will bottom? So am I!

When there is stock market pandemonium, there tend to be a lot of worst-case scenarios thrown around e.g. zombie apocalypse with no food, electricity, or running water. Because of the hysteria, the stock market tends to both overshoot on the upside and on the downside.

As rational investors, we acknowledge that nobody can with certitude predict a stock market bottom. However, it’s worthwhile to at least think about various entry points to put additional capital to work if you are a long-term investor.

As long as we have excess cash flow, we can either hoard cash or make an investment. I tend to consistently do the latter since my cash allocation is generally at capacity.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers went bust. I remember this day clearly because I made a $200 side bet with my friend over the weekend that the US government would bail them out. To my surprise, the US government didn’t rescue Lehman, and the stock cratered that Monday and never recovered.

Despite all the economic devastation, I wouldn’t mind rewinding time and going back to 2008. I’d rather be 31 than 42, simply because I love life and want to live as many years as possible.

As we potentially head into another recession due to the coronavirus locking up economic activity and the collapse of oil prices causing tremendous job loss in the oil & gas sector, here are some lessons learned during and since the financial crisis.

One of the beautiful things about the internet is that I’ve never met someone online who has lost money in the stock market. When stocks are going up, the bulls are out in full force telling everyone how much they’ve made in XYZ. When stocks are going down, the bears all come out and say they shorted heavily right before the crash. As a result, I think we’re going to be just fine.

Unfortunately, I have about 20% of my net worth long in the stock market, which means I am getting my face ripped off as we speak. The stock market corrections are getting quicker and quicker. This latest 10%+ correction has been the quickest one of them all!

Losing money now is particularly painful because I made a silly goal to accumulate $1,500,000 more capital by September 2022 in order to return to early retirement life.

With the way the market is performing, I feel like I’m walking through a Fujita 3 tornado with a 150 mph headwind. Every financial step forward is one ass-flattening lurch back.

For those of you who are also secretly losing money during the coronavirus pandemic, I thought it would be nice to look on the bright side of things.

It’s official! After 11 years, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have all entered into a bear market on March 12, 2020 thanks to the coronavirus fears.

The last bear market for the S&P 500 ran from October 9, 2007 through March 9, 2009, falling 57% in the period. The average bear market declines about 33% over 270 days.

With this bear market, we got here in under 30 days. Therefore, there is a hope that this bear market won’t last as long as average. We are seeing economic recovery in China, where the coronavirus first started. But obviously, nobody knows the future.