From 2009, when I started writing about FIRE, until now, the FIRE movement has had a great run. It was born out of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, when hundreds of thousands of people were losing their jobs.
In order to cope with the sudden disruption to their economic livelihoods, the concept of FIRE was embraced as both explanation and aspiration. Instead of admitting you got laid off, you could suddenly tell your family, friends, and colleagues that you decided to “retire early” instead and live the free life.
Not only did FIRE become a great shield for the ego, it also gave us a better excuse to get off the corporate treadmill and stay off. After all, survey after survey shows that most employees are disengaged or disinterested at work.
Of course, once the economy started stabilizing by 2010 and taking off in 2012, many of these early retirees logically went back to work. Jobs became plentiful again, and the temporary unemployment period of FIRE was over for hundreds of thousands.
The Growth of the FIRE Movement Continued From 2012–2021
But that intense three-year period of FIRE from 2009–2012 really began to spread the idea of what was possible.
Instead of working for 40+ consecutive years, maybe we could take mini-retirements to give ourselves the occasional break.
Maybe we could take several years off to care for a newborn before preschool without completely jeopardizing our careers.
Or maybe, just maybe, we could exit the corporate world for good and find more interesting ways to earn money, feel productive, and experience greater freedom.
Lifestyle design and becoming a digital nomad became a thing.
As a result, the FIRE movement steadily grew worldwide, culminating once again in peak FIRE when COVID lockdowns began in March 2020. Millions of people were trapped at home, wondering what they were going to do with their lives. Maximum uncertainty reappeared as in-person businesses ground to a halt.
If life was this precarious, then maybe it was time to truly live once we were free again. The YOLO economy came to life as people stopped putting their dreams on hold by 2022.
COVID was another major catalyst for FIRE.
But Then the FIRE Movement Petered Out Again
From 2021 through 2024, the FIRE movement began losing momentum. The one silver lining of COVID was the widespread acceptance of remote work. Once the world realized business could still be conducted efficiently and profitably from home, the work style stuck, even after COVID ended.
Plenty of high-paying jobs no longer required going into the office. For several years, millions of knowledge workers enjoyed far greater flexibility: running errands, taking care of their kids, exercising mid-day, and simply living more balanced lives.
For example, I was playing pickleball for hours on weekday late mornings with employees from Google, Uber, and Meta who were working remotely. They told me they had flexible hours and would just finish their work later in the evening.
I started wondering what the point was of sacrificing so much to retire early when you could get paid big bucks to play during the day. Sign me up.
If Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse had let me work from home even just two days a week, I’m sure I would have worked 18 years in banking instead of just 13. Eighteen years, or until age 40, was my original goal when I joined the industry in 1999.
I Gave Work From Home a Go – And It Was Great
Given that I try to act consistently with my beliefs, I went back to work in November 2023, consulting 25 hours a week for a fintech startup. I wanted to experience what it was like to work with so much flexibility.
I have to admit, getting paid to work from home was awesome. Going into the office once a week for three hours was actually fun.
The experience showed me that FIRE was becoming obsolete for many people who disliked commuting and traveling to meet clients. Once those burdens were eliminated, work became much more enjoyable.
Unfortunately, I messed up a good thing because I couldn’t tolerate being told what to do in my craft after 14 years of 100% writing freedom. Most people who have never FIRE’d could probably follow orders without issue. I couldn’t. So I left after four months. It was just as well, as a year later, the company was acquired by another fintech firm for a modest amount.
As long as work from home seemed here to stay, the FIRE movement would likely continue losing momentum.
The Strong Return of FIRE Due to AI and In-Office Mandates
Unfortunately, nothing good lasts forever.
Starting around the beginning of 2024, large firms such as JP Morgan, Meta and Google began encouraging workers to return to the office once a week. Then it became two days a week. Then three days a week in 2025.
Now in 2026, most large firms require employees to come in five days a week. With COVID long over and hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on AI, management believes it is imperative to get 100 percent of the workforce fully engaged in person again.
Not only are these companies spending fortunes on AI, AI is also attacking their core business models, e.g. Google's search business. Companies have conducted mass layoffs due to overhiring during COVID. But they have also cut roles because AI has created massive productivity gains, making thousands of employees redundant.
It is no time to mess around.
Given the surge in AI adoption and workplace tightening, I am officially declaring that the FIRE movement is back in 2026, and more relevant than ever.
If AI compresses wages and eliminates roles, then ownership and savings become even more critical.
For your family’s financial well-being, I challenge you to adopt basic FIRE principles this year and every year until you reach financial independence.
Follow Basic FIRE Principles for Survival
If you don’t want to be trapped in a permanent underclass, you must embrace FIRE with everything you’ve got before it's too late. You may have at most 10 years to build enough wealth and livable passive income to survive without a day job.
Take these principles seriously:
- Save 50 percent of your after-tax income or more. That may mean saving one entire paycheck if you are paid biweekly.
- Max out tax-advantaged retirement accounts such as your 401(k), IRA, SEP-IRA, Solo 401(k), or Roth IRA.
- Aggressively build up taxable brokerage accounts, ideally making them at least twice as large as your tax-advantaged accounts for flexibility.
- Build an emergency fund equal to 12 months of normal living expenses.
- Cut unnecessary expenses such as unused subscriptions, excess clothing purchases, and memberships you rarely use.
- Sell items you have not used in six months to declutter and raise capital.
- Invest in income-generating assets such as dividend stocks, rental properties, private real estate, or small businesses to build passive income.
- Start a side hustle to diversify your income streams.
- Learn to be humble and accept that nothing good or bad lasts forever.
Get comfortable living lean now so you are not forced into it later. If you are laid off, the impact will be far less severe because you’ve built financial buffers.
The Worst-Case Scenario Is Not Just Unemployment
Some people mistakenly believe the worst-case scenario is losing your job to AI and never finding a comparable-paying role again. That would be painful, but it is not the worst case.
The true worst-case scenario is losing your job and suffering a major decline in your investments at the same time. This one-two punch might force you to sell near the bottom. If you sell out of necessity, you may never recover.
During the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, many people were forced to short-sell or foreclose on their homes after values declined 15 – 50 percent. They lost their jobs, their credit scores were damaged for years, and they had no capital to invest when assets were on sale. Nor could they borrow to reenter the housing market.
Losing everything and then missing the subsequent 16+ year recovery creates a permanent underclass. That scenario could easily happen again if a severe bear market hits and speculative assets get wiped out.
We are already seeing AI disrupt the publishing industry, movie industry, software industry, search industry, and video game industry. It is only a matter of time before it reaches yours. And when it does, your company’s share price may decline sharply and mass layoffs will follow.
The question is not whether disruption is coming. The question is whether you will be financially prepared when it arrives.
FIRE Keeps You Protected
FIRE is foundational to security. The longer you live, the more good and bad things will happen to you. The goal is to achieve FIRE before something truly bad destroys your livelihood.
The modern-day FIRE movement was born out of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis. It faded somewhat as the economy rebounded. Then it came roaring back in 2020 during COVID. After that, it faded again thanks to flexible remote work. Now it’s back, and more important than ever, due to the existential threat AI poses to billions of workers.
If I didn’t have children, I would be far less concerned. All I would need to do is allocate my assets properly to benefit from the AI boom. That means investing in AI-related companies and reducing exposure to businesses most vulnerable to AI disruption.
But with young children, it’s a completely different ball game. You can see the disruption coming. They cannot.
That’s why it’s vital to adjust your educational and financial strategy now in preparation for a very different future. One strategy is to simply make so much money that even if you implement the wrong educational plan, your children will still be fine. That’s certainly one way to sleep at night.
However, helping your children develop adaptability, resilience, and dignity through work – so they can provide for themselves regardless of technological change – seems like a far more admirable and durable goal.
Because in the end, FIRE isn’t just about early retirement. It’s about protection. It’s about options. And in the age of AI, optionality may be the most valuable asset of all.
Reader Questions & Suggestions
Readers, do you believe FIRE is more important than ever due to AI? Or has the FIRE movement never really lost momentum since 2009? Are you adopting any FIRE principles now to protect yourself?
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Read this post a half hour after reading the outstanding article in The Atlantic this month, “America Isn’t Ready for What AI Will Do to Jobs” by Josh Tyrangiel. So many things to think about right before going to bed and starting a new work week. Not going to help with the chronic insomnia! Kind of wish I’d turned on a mindless comedy instead. Lol. Always appreciate your writing and thoughts, Sam.
Right before covid hit, i built a climate controlled garage. Which works as my studio now and the main home is an airbnb
Do you mean 50% of take home pay or gross?
Take home pay. After tax and 401(k) maximum contribution. Although, you can certainly try to take home 50% of gross pay too.
For the last three years of my career, I was saving 70% – 80% of my after-tax, after 401(k) max contribution, which was equivalent to 50%+ of gross income.
The point is to do whatever you can to save aggressively now before it’s too late. Just take a look at Block’s 40% layoff announcement recently.
The FIRE movement has turned into the FIRED movement for office workers who use a keyboard all day. A.I. is coming for you, so make adjustments now before you are in a bind.
Or, otherwise known as, the DIRE Movement: Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire. Round and round we go!
Sam, Can you please do a follow-up podcast or newsletter addressing the recent Citrini research paper and how, assuming this doomsday scenario or some lesser scenario comes true, investors close to retirement should position their investments? The paper suggests the S&P will get hammered and will not recover.
The co-author of the Citrini piece was a hedge fund manager with short positions in tech.
Doom sells better than hope. And when you can frighten millions of people, you can make a lot of money.
But definitely some truths to consider. Timing mismatch, and evolution will happen.
https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/
I’ve adopted more of a doom spending approach. I used to be more frugal but over the last two years I decided to buy anything that I could afford that would increase my quality of life. Why FIRE just to live like a broke person? If I’m working I might as well enjoy things. I still believe in ‘Delay, Inherit, Retire, Expire‘ (minus the Inherit). I guess my ‘I” word is Increase (spending and income).
Love it! And I agree. After 23 years, I finally upgraded my old snowboard boots with broken laces and two outer soles that were coming off. Originally, I upgraded to a mid-tier boot for $280 after 30% off. But then I went back and got a $360 boot after 30% off b/c why not get the best with the best fit? YOLO baby!
I got to bring back the DIRE movement! Thanks for the reminder.
yes! last year I got a new Audi convertible after years of being chained to a “saving prison”. Literally felt like I broke free from something… When my wife and I celebrate a birthday or anniversary we always ask the server, “what is your most expensive wine?” Typically, it is in excess of $1,000, so we say to “give us your best $500 bottle.” So we are actually saving money by not getting the best!
Oh dayum! You’ve ordered a $500 bottle of win before? That’s impressive. I think the most I ordered was $150, but that was with a company corporate card bank in my finance days.
Baller! I still couldn’t do it. After doing a blind taste test, I like the $8.99 Ménage à trois is pretty darn good!
yes we aren’t really wine connoisseurs. Its just a celebratory kind of thing – one or twice a year. We swore off getting eachother gifts awhile back and enjoy the money in other ways. Hah – me too – my favorite wine is actually a white I tasted in Austria that I can get through “Naked Wines” for $18 a bottle – retails $28.
One thing that always helps is your writing, especially in qualm times. I really enjoyed this piece as it didn’t shy away from the realness that’s at stake but it gives us hope for what’s to come. Especially in a time when most people are not really taking the aspects and impacts of AI in their everyday life as seriously as maybe they should be, or maybe are paralyzed by the reality that AI could bring. I’ve been rethinking my financial strategy in the era of AI. I liked your concept on dividend stocks, AI companies, and then just having side businesses that actually generate revenue. I don’t think now is the time to be too risk-taking and chasing those big dreams that might not pan out. I also think it’s smart to sell all the extra stuff that you have to really try to get some extra income and allow you to play with larger savings, just in case that some stuff was to go unexpectedly left. Grateful for you. Thanks again for sharing your perspective.
You’re welcome and thanks for reading. I don’t think 80%+ of the population knows what’s coming with AI. Maybe I’m in an AI bubble here in SF.. but it is moving at a devastating pace.
FIRE is for people who hate their careers. It is a visceral rejection of the structural and psychological costs inherent in modern professional life. For many FIRE adherents, the “hatred” of their career is a response to a labor market defined by perceived pointlessness, neurobiological degradation, and the manipulation of financial incentives.
A primary driver of this dissatisfaction is the realization that many modern roles lack social value. This sentiment aligns with the “Bullshit Jobs” theory, which posits that a significant portion of employment—especially in finance, corporate law, and middle management—is entirely unnecessary or even destructive.
MRI studies show that individuals working over 52 hours per week exhibit structural changes in 17 brain regions, impacting emotional regulation and executive function. Consequently, many adherents view FIRE as a biological survival mechanism against an environment that causes permanent cognitive depletion.
The modern office environment is increasingly defined by “fake empathy.” Organizations often provide superficial wellness benefits, such as mindfulness apps or chair yoga, while simultaneously increasing workloads and conducting constant restructuring. The obsession with physical or digital “attendance”—such as maintaining an active status on Slack regardless of output—fosters a cynical culture that many see as a “broken model”.
Reaching a “FIRE number” is the only viable way to reclaim control over a part of their life they despise. In an era where professional success often demands the sacrifice of health and identity, the “hatred” of their profession is the first step toward recognizing they made a career mistake. You don’t quit what you love.
wow this reads like a real article in psychology today. I think alot of it is true, but alot of it is overdramatized. It sets up a false binary of either loving or hating your job. Most of us fall somewhere in the middle. Not everyone can make a living out of what they love to do. My career is been fine – sometimes like, sometimes hate, a few moments of love. that is reality for 95% of the population. For the 95% like me, we still do what we love, but as a hobby or “off-hours”. I see nothing wrong with being in a job till you roll into the grave because you love it so much. I also see nothing wrong with being diligent in saving while in your 9-5 and then checking out early so you can do more of what you love. And if you really hate your job. most of those people find another one or switch careers instead of sitting in them for 20 years until they FIRE at 42.
You may enjoy this post: The Dark Side Of Early Retirement, when I first started writing about FIRE in 2009.
So true, FIRE got me burned. Analyzing it, I realized that what I was looking for was to escape from my current work and find a job I love. After realizing it’s hard & foolish to associate and stick with FIRE for another 10 years so that I can retire one day and do what I want. Who knows I will be alive by then or I will have the same energy and love for things and people I have today. I see the FIRE moment as a mask of my fears.
Nailed it.
I’ve really want to invest in youth sports industry considering how much disposable income we have invested in our child’s athletics. I think with the advent of AI.. out of desperation parents are getting their children involved in club sports to keep them off of social media and phones some of the day. When you are at practice 2-4 hours a day, at least you know your kids aren’t scrolling mindless brain rot. Also, I don’t see robot professional or college sports being taken over by AI anytime soon. It’s one “career” path, pro sports, that is AI proof. There are like 350 club volleyball teams alone in Southern California. The amount of money parents are willingly to shovel at club sports in hopes their child goes D1 is obscene. Really wish there was a youth sports ETF to invest in.
Yes, the business of youth sports is big. But the payoff to get a full scholarship to a division college is around 1%.
Related: Where are all the adult athletes?
I guess the difference between now and the earlier FIRE movement is that AI is making us think more defensively. We are asking ourselves how we can milk as many years and as much income as possible out of our jobs before AI makes us redundant, rather than how we can retire as early as possible. If anything, I feel grateful to still have a good-paying job. Make hay while the sun shines, as they say. I’m also inclined to shift toward a more conservative allocation because I fear being displaced in my career as the economy crashes. I also fear for my kids’ futures. I do follow most of the FIRE Principles For Survival on your list.
Perhaps, versus reactively in 2009 after you got laid off or lost lots of money.
But we should ALWAYS think defensively and offensively.
I think truly mass economic issues will arise not from AI, but from robotics. In the near term – 2-3 years, advancements in AI will make certain companies perhaps obsolete so you better not be overweight in their stocks. But our economy/and stock market completely depends on consumer spending. Most of that comes from the upper echelon of earners, but what interests me is what happens to all the ag workers, restaurant workers, cleaners, Uber drivers, when robots take their place? How will they have income? If AI/Robots replace workers, where does the stimulus for the economy come from? How do we, as individuals, buy products online or at the grocery store, and go to Disneyworld, if we have no income?
My assumption is by increased taxation and redistribution. Sometimes referred to as welfare or UBI. The gap between upper echelon earners and those suckling the government teet will only widen.
I have to chime in right off the bat that in terms of AI and the generations that are growing up in schools right now, I feel teachers are more valuable than ever. AI can increase a lot of efficiencies and offer a lot of learning, but kids need so much social emotional development that AI can’t teach. And they need to learn how to sit with struggle and frustration and move through it on their own. Teachers are great at helping kids do so much that AI can not. And those interpersonal skills and problem solving skills will matter so much as they rise into adulthood and lead the next generations.
AI is 100% accelerating job uncertainty even for roles that used to seem safe and that makes financial independence feel less like a “nice to have” and more like basic risk management. I agree that the FIRE mindset is shifting from retiring early to building optionality. It’s so important to have enough saved and invested so you’re not stuck if your career path disintegrates and your industry changes fast.
I also think FIRE lost a bit of urgency during the remote work boom because flexibility improved without people needing to quit. But now that companies are tightening policies and AI is boosting productivity and reducing headcount the motivation is back. I’m more focused on increasing my savings rate, passive income and teaching my kids as much perseverance, grit, money smarts, and kindness as possible to help them survive in an AI dominated future.
Hi Sam, can you share your thoughts on how AI will disrupt the public companies in S&P and thus could lead to a severe market downturn as predicted in this article on Market Watch (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-another-ai-doom-post-doing-the-rounds-this-time-the-s-p-500-dives-nearly-40-13162b42?mod=djem_mwnneedtoknow)? Would you recommend to continue to stay invested in S&P index even given some of the gloom and doom prediction of AI impact? My husband and I are currently 45 and we hope to retire around 55 when our kids are in college (so not FIRE, but we consider it an early retirement comparing to standard norm). It’s hard to imagine what type of jobs our kids can have and as your said, adaptability/flexibility is probably one of the most important strength they need to develop in the AI-age. But just want to get your thoughts on AI’s impact on public companies and S&P index in the next 5~20 years. Thanks!
stay invested and add to SPY – DCA. People forget that SPY is actually actively managed. Every year 5 to 25 companies are replaced (added/dropped) to reflect the overall US economy. IT is constantly changing its holdings. So if AI companies like Anthropic and Open AI come onto public markets and are dominating the economy, in a year or two they will be added to SPY and in 5 years perhaps they will have weighted positions like where NVDA and GOOG are now. And they will have replaced in SPY companies that were destroyed by AI (i.e., like NOW and/or CRM are dropped if all the doom and gloom is proved true).
SPY will continually be reworked. That is why it is such a good way to DCA. Stay the course.
I like what Ash01 said. I’d continue to dollar cost average in to the S&P 500.
DOOMER articles hit! I should do more of them. But they are often taken to the extreme.
Save and invest regularly. And hope you pick up my upcoming book, Your Children Will Be OK, in 2027!
Hope you’ll teach your kids in addition to the teachers, hard won critical thinking skills based on original data/evidence analysis. Alot of cheating in schools and universities now using AI –especially in arts, humanities and social sciences. Business falls under social sciences. AI also just fostering laziness in complex analytical thinking AND also original creative imagination and its human execution.
Laziness is definitely a side effect of AI that I’ve experienced here and there as a writer. There’s a constant temptation to let AI do all my writing, but nah. I still enjoy the process too much.
Remind me what it is that you do again? Are you a professor noticing AI cheating?
No, I had a career in information management. 2 of my Canadian friends each with a PhD taught courses in humanities and health care. Each person confronted individually cheating students for assigned essays. Often the student would staunchly deny their cheating, after instructor did the checking online ..word for word copying without footnoted references.
1 of them actually resigned from her job she had for last decade. She was tired of the games.
Of course now, teachers in high school are checking. Can you now imagine, teacher dealing with a cheating child…then later, a parent defending the cheating child? Alot of that happens more than the teaching profession will admit these days. My bf is long-time retired public high school teacher over last 25 years. He still does substitute teaching occasionally due to teacher shortage. Teachers are burnt out alot faster these days.
We want the next generation after Gen Z to be still great thinkers and creators in orginality with practice business and social programs which require human hands-on implementation and checks.
The kid part is the most challenging. I have a newfound desire to provide more to them than I previously felt compelled to. I want to help pad their Roths a little more, teach them about savings and living modestly a little more, maybe help a little more with setting money aside for future homes.
Now, couple AI with growing US debt and lack of effort made towards stabilizing SS, and I can go into a panic attack (just kidding, but still). It is funny; I worry about their future finances far more than I worry about my own and my wife’s.
Maybe because my wife and I are at that coast point…where as long as we can pull 5% real returns annually…we’ll retire at some point with dignity. Maybe that point gets set back 1, 2, 5 years….but we’ll get there. My kids….I just can’t imagine the world they will live in 30 years from now at this point in time.
But I try to remember….even if juggling work is harder with AI and an increasingly competitive global economy, many things will be better and easier. Hopefully, AI will make healthcare more manageable and help solve the diseases and conditions humanity lives with now. Maybe a 4-day workweek will be the new norm, and more work from home. Maybe massive modular home companies sprout up and fight local restrictions across the US, making starter homes more easily attainable. You take the good with the bad, right?
I hope, for the sake of all mankind, AI cures cancer and hundreds of other rare and common diseases afflicting millions. If AI is going to eliminate millions of jobs, at least do something positive to help fewer people suffer.
Helping your kids boost their financial accounts is a no-brainer. Kids give us the superpower to focus better, work harder, and save more. Building an insurance policy for them is a good thing.
I feel similar. For 20 years I thought “I’ll pay for private school and college, and then they’re on their own”. Lately I’ve been putting money into custodial brokerage accounts for the kids and even considering the fact that I may have to purchase their house for them. If you would have told me that 10 years ago I would have laughed out loud.
With times a changing, we must change with it!
It doesn’t hurt to have more saved up for our children than less. We never have to clearly tell them exactly how much we’ve saved and invested for them over the years.
Thanks for the fear dopamine hit! In all seriousness, I agree with this sentiment. I constantly think about what sort of work my 6, 4 and 1 year old kids will end up doing.
True. It helps me to remember millions of people who took care of horses and built carriages were in the same position when cars were invented. I imagine many of thier kids ended up somewhere plugged in the auto industry.