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Dear Financial Samurais,
After a sharp decline to 4,850, the S&P 500 has retraced roughly 50% of its drop, climbing back to 5,500 thanks to a strong 4% recovery last week.
On Thursday, China announced there were no trade talks taking place with the U.S. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yarding added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed, and he called for the cancellation of “unilateral” tariffs.
Yet despite these statements, the S&P 500 marched higher, and the VIX—the volatility index—continued to decline. Maybe strong earnings from Google and news of less self-driving regulation boosting Tesla’s stock helped. Maybe it's just stronger seasonality after tax season, when so many of us have had to cut checks. Or maybe investors have finally become numb to all the trade talk jibber jabber.
Hard to say for sure, but I’m glad the violent swings have subsided, for now.
SuperZweig Breadth Thrust
One thing I did learn last week is about a technical indicator called the Zweig Breadth Thrust. It’s used to spot potential market shifts by analyzing market breadth—the ratio of advancing to declining stocks. Developed by Martin Zweig, the indicator is designed to catch sudden surges in momentum that may signal the start of a new bull market.
Supposedly, the NYSE triggered a “SuperZweig Breadth Thrust,” which has a perfect track record of predicting higher returns over the next 6 and 12 months. In fact, based on the chart below, one year later the median return of the S&P 500 is 26.4%, with a 100% positive win rate.
As someone who likes to stay hopeful, I'll take it. Of course, the Zweig Breadth Thrust doesn’t prevent the market from retesting its lows, but at least the setup looks encouraging.
Millionaire Topics and Things
To celebrate the launch of my new book, Millionaire Milestones: Simple Steps To Seven Figures (Amazon) on May 6, 2025, I thought it’d be fun to explore various millionaire topics leading up to and during the week of release.
Of all the material things millionaires care about, there’s no greater asset than their home. Given that most of us are spending more time at home—and there’s nothing more important than protecting and caring for our families—the intrinsic value of a home has skyrocketed since the pandemic.
Investors vividly remember March 2020, when the stock market plunged 32% within a month, and years of hard work seemed to flush down the drain. But through it all, our homes continued to provide stability and comfort.
As a real estate fanatic, I thought I'd do a deep dive into how much income and net worth you need to purchase a $10 million home. I also put together a sample budget for a $2.5 million income household owning a $10 million home, along with ongoing maintenance costs.
See: Income And Net Worth Required To Buy A $10 Million Home
For reference, I don't own a $10 million home—but many of my friends here in San Francisco do. And if I were to break my promise to my wife not to move for the next 10 years, that would likely be our next leap of faith.
Either way, writing this post was a fun exercise to explore what could be and what it would take to get there. I know some of you are thinking about such a large purchase too, given I just consulted with one of you on the topic last week.
Next Favorite Topic: How To Retire Early
Besides real estate, my other favorite topic is what it takes to retire early. It’s been 13 years since I left my day job in 2012, and I can't imagine any amount of money that would make me give up those years of freedom. Time has flown by, and today, it feels even more precious.
I wanted to put together the most helpful guide I could: the order in which to contribute to retirement accounts, how much you need to aim for, and key strategies to follow in the years leading up to your exit—and the years after.
You don't need to be a millionaire to retire early, especially if you've paid off your debts and have few or no dependents. You can pursue Lean FIRE or even the more precarious Coast FIRE, earning supplemental income along the way. Or you can go all-in, like I have, and pursue Fat FIRE to live your ideal life with minimal compromise. Whichever path you choose, the common denominator is aggressive saving and investing.
At 47 years old, I increasingly find it absurd to spend 40+ hours a week taking orders from a prickly adult just to climb the status ladder. Then, once the workday ends, you’re equals again—free to say whatever you want if you bump into them at the grocery store. How strange!
If you don't like your colleagues or your job, use that negative energy as fuel to save and invest harder—for your freedom.
Read: The Early Retiree's Guide To Funding Retirement Accounts
Finish Strong, Please
Finally, if you start strong but never finish, does it really matter? No! If you want to succeed, you not only have to stay consistent—you must close the loop.
How many times do we get pumped up to do something in the beginning, only for our motivation to fade? If you want to get better at anything—whether it’s playing an instrument, learning a language, getting in shape, writing a book, or building a business—you must stay consistent.
I’ll admit, there have been Saturdays when I didn’t feel like spending two hours writing and editing this newsletter for Sunday morning publication. Weekends are supposed to be for relaxing! And getting back at 3 a.m. after a night of poker and whiskey with the boys doesn’t exactly help either.
But then I remind myself: I made a promise back in July 2009 to publish three times a week on Financial Samurai and to write a weekly newsletter for 10 years. Yes, we’re almost six years past that original promise. And after that excuse runs out, I think to myself: what kind of loser quits when they can just keep going?
You simply cannot fail if you keep going, because eventually, you’ll get better and more efficient at whatever you’re trying to achieve.
If you need a little more motivation, check out: The Last Mile Is Where Success Is Made
Thanks For Your Support — Live Webinar!
If you appreciate the effort I put into writing this newsletter, please pick up a copy of Millionaire Milestones: Simple Steps To Seven Figures, out May 6, 2025. The book is designed to motivate you to build more wealth than you ever thought possible. Pick up a copy on Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books A Million or wherever you buy books.
For those who pre-order a copy before May 6, we’re trying something new: a live webinar! On Wednesday, May 21 at 5:30 p.m. PST, my publisher and I will host a live session to talk about topics from the book, answer your questions, and discuss how to navigate our investments during these incredible times of uncertainty.
May 21 should give you enough time to finish Millionaire Milestones—or at least skim through it. I purposely made the book punchier and a standard length to make it an easy, motivating read.
Simply REGISTER HERE, input your order number, and you’ll be added to the invite list!
To Your Financial Freedom,
Sam
If you were forwarded this newsletter you can sign up here. My goal is to help you achieve financial freedom sooner, rather than later. Financial Samurai began in 2009 and is one of the oldest and most trusted personal finance sites today.