When Will The Lockdowns End?

One of the best ways to get through a difficult time is to set a conservative time limit for how long you may have to endure the pain. Having a conservative time limit drastically reduces your stress and anxiety. And a happy life is all about consistently surpassing expectations.  

For example, have you ever needed to urgently go to the bathroom while on a bus? The bus driver says the next rest stop is in 10-15 minutes, but you can't wait! The curry in your belly is already exploding.  

Your mind starts frantically thinking about the worst-case scenario, which makes you need to go to the bathroom even more. You want to tell the driver to pull over now, but are too embarrassed! But if you calmly tell yourself to hold on for a conservative duration of time, like 25 more minutes, no matter how slow he drives or what obstacles may come your way, you will start to feel calmer and your stomach pain will start to go away because you've baked in a comfortable buffer.  

The same situation is going on for most of us right now and with life in general. The uncertainty of when the economy will open is slowly torturing us. But I realized last week with, 98% certainty, when the lockdowns will end. 

Ready to receive some Pepto-Bismol for the soul?! 

When Will The Lockdowns End?

Expect to experience the glory of freedom again no later than the week of July 13, 2020.

Here's how I know this date is for certain: 1) I surveyed thousands of you on March 22 about how long you are willing to put up with a lockdown. 56% of you said between 2 – 3 months. We have a base case sentiment with the information at the time. This type of information was also used by the government to try and come up with a viable solution to stop-gap the American public's finances while combatting the virus.  

2) Stimulus checks will be mostly dispersed by the end of April. Enhanced unemployment benefits last until July 30. And PPP money will be mostly dispersed by May 15. Small business owners then have 8 weeks from the time they receive their loans to keep payroll unchanged for their loans to be forgiven.

Therefore, the government believes, through all its bickering, that mid-July is a conservative time period where the vast majority of the nation will open. After all, politicians also need to be conservative in order to beat expectations and remain in power. They don't just come up with these conditions and timelines for nothing.  

However, if you understand my message, then you also know that if we are conservatively expecting lockdowns to end by the week of July 13 to manage expectations, then the reality is nationwide lockdowns will end much sooner.   

Related: What Is The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)?

When I Believe The Lockdowns Will End

Given the government is managing for mid-July for the lockdowns to end, I believe the lockdowns will end nationwide by mid-June instead. Of course, life won't go back exactly the same as it was. There will be modifications in place for social distancing. Further, industries such as travel, hospitality, food, and entertainment will take much longer to recover. However, recover they will.

I do believe the stock market bottom was reached when the S&P 500 hit 2,237 in Mid-March 2020. Now I believe it is time for savvy financial freedom seekers to try and profit from panicky real estate sellers as well.

COVID-19 and the lockdowns are providing one of the greatest opportunities for investors with cash to buy assets at discount prices. Of course, everything won't rebound in a straight line. However, chances are good we'll look back upon this period and realize this was one of the greatest times to buy risk assets.

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