Do you know what the market capitalization was of Microsoft when they went public on March 13, 1986? A mere $500 million (~$1 billion in today’s dollars). If you had bought just 100 shares of Microsoft at the $21 offering and rode it all the way up to its peak in 1999, you would have cashed out for $1.4 million. Of course the stock came tumbling down and then back up. But you’d still have around $1 million bucks today. Not bad.

I remember working on the syndicate with my US colleagues during Google’s IPO back in 2004. We took the company public at a $23 billion market cap. Meanwhile, Facebook went public in 2012 at a $100 billion market cap. See a trend here? Companies are going public later and later in the game, meaning the public is getting less and less of the upside benefit!

The people who are getting rich are 1) Private institutional investors such as the hedge funds, venture capital funds, venture debt funds, and private equity funds, 2) Accredited investors who are able to invest in such private funds, and 3) The employees qualified enough to get jobs at these hot startups. Everybody else is shut out!

We could be in another financial bubble, but nobody really knows when a correction will take place. You might not even care if your investments decline by 20% or more over a year time frame if you are looking to invest over the next several decades. But alas, none of us will live forever, and nobody really likes to experience downside volatility. Sooner or later, we’ll have to deploy our capital for life, leisure, and charity. Not everybody wants to leave a financial legacy to raise spoiled kids!

One of the strategies I’ve taken to protect against downside risk is to buy various structured notes based on different indices like the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and the Russell 2000, or buy single stock structured notes of specific companies. Not only do I regularly rebalance my portfolios, I also consistently dollar cost average every month. You’ll be surprised how big a fortune you can create after just 10 years by methodically applying these two financial practices.

Structured notes are derivative products that usually provide hedged returns. In this post, I’d like to explain to you another recent structured note I bought to help illustrate how structured notes work. I buy all my structured notes through a Citi Wealth Management account. My other investment portfolios include: a Rollover IRA, a SEP IRA, a Self-Employed 401k, and a Motif Investing portfolio. 

Updated for 2017 and beyond. 

Of course we are in a bubble! When you’ve got people with no professional financial experience giving investment advice, you better believe we’re in a bubble. Online investing advice by non-finance professionals is the modern day version of shoe shine boys giving stock tips prior to the crash of 1929. Always understand the background of those who give investment advice before considering their counsel.

Even after 20 years of investing and working in the finance industry, I always feel uncomfortable giving any sort of investment advice because I’ve had way too many losses partly thanks to multiple boom and bust cycles. Furthermore, everybody’s risk tolerance and money making abilities are different. The best thing we can do is have an appropriate asset allocation to ride out the waves.

The good thing about bubbles is that the greater fool game can last for much longer than expected because we humans are GREEDY, GREEDY, GREEDY!

The largest criers of the word “BUBBLE!” are those who have the least amount at stake. Perhaps they sold their real estate, stocks, or businesses before 2012 and are now kicking themselves. Maybe they are still graduate students with a lot of student loans to repay. Or maybe they are retirees or early retirees who can no longer take full advantage of a heated economy. Whatever the case may be, when the largest complainers of a bubble start getting back in, you know danger is imminent.

Let’s at least all agree that we’re in the second half of a bull market and the bubble will eventually burst. Maybe we’ll only correct by 15%-20%, unlike 2009’s 50% ass-kicking. But eventually, that year or three of pain will come!

On Saturday, July 16, 2014 I played in a tennis tournament with a partner that worked at Trulia, an online real estate company. He just got his job and was explaining to me how the company makes money through its ad placements for Realtors. If you’ve ever wondered why companies like Trulia and Zillow have done nothing to lower selling commission rates from 5%, it’s because real estate agents are their clients. Asking how a company makes money or plans to make money is always my number two question after understanding what the company does.

We had a really fun time playing against Berkeley Tennis Club across the bay. After getting home, I decided that I was going to buy Trulia stock because I liked their business model, the stock had corrected somewhat, I was bullish on the real estate market, and it seemed like a prime takeover target. I was set on buying $50,000 worth of the stock on Monday, July 18.

For some reason, I got too busy that Monday and didn’t execute my order before 1pm PST. Mondays and Wednesdays were my consulting days for one of my ex-clients. I forgot about buying Trulia that entire week until I saw news after the close on July 28, 2014 that Zillow was acquiring Trulia for $3.5 billion in stock at a 25% premium! Damn! I could have made $12,500 in just a couple weeks!

What a shame. Or how fortunate. Let me explain.