Financial Samurai 2010 Year In Review

I’m sad to see 2010 go because it has been one of the most fun years of my life.  I’ve discovered new friends and found a comfortable work / life balance that has eluded me all decade until now.  The one thing that’s so fun about blogging or journal writing is that you get to go through your archives and re-discover what you were thinking some time ago.

I’d like to go through some of the predictions and resolutions I made on December 31, 2009 and see how they turned out.  I’ve gone ahead and pasted the meat of the December 31 post and highlighted the results in gray.

FIVE PREDICTIONS OF 2010 – MIXED RESULTS AND ONE SPOT ON

1) Inflation remains tame and therefore interest rates remain low. There’s really only one figure I check frequently, and that’s the US 10-year government treasury yield. The 10-year yield tells us so much: sentiment of the bond and stock market, inflation outlook, fear or greed, mortgage rate direction, and what foreigner’s are getting in return for funding our debt.  The 10-yr yield will not breach 5% this year, and credit will therefore continue to be very cheap.

Result: Inflation is nonexistent as the Fed prints billions upon billions of dollars to counteract worries of deflation.  The 10-year yield dipped to 2.3% and is now hovering around 3.3%.  Money is incredibly cheap to borrow.  Unfortunately, savings interest rates are horrible as a result.

2) The US dollar strengthens. Literally nobody agreed with the post “A Weak Dollar Doesn’t Matter Folks!” and that’s fine by me.  Now you know why a weak dollar doesn’t matter, because I’m bullish on the dollar, and the weakness is only temporary!  Look for the USD to strengthen against the Euro and the Yen in particular.  Given the Yen will weaken to 95-100, I’m bullish on Japan as a macro trade as well.  And no, I’m not biased because of the word Samurai!

Result: The US dollar has been surprisingly strong in light of all the QE2.  The USD against the EURO has been solid thanks to European debt issues.  The Yen has not depreciated surprisingly and is hovering around 85/$1.

3) The US markets do not double dip.  Instead, they continue to rebound. Specifically, look for the S&P 500 to rise 13% to 1,265 and the Dow to 12,000.  There is still hundreds of billions of dollars in money market funds which have missed this rally, and 2010 is when liquidity rushes into the markets.  You don’t have to be too cute in this market recovery, since it is largely liquidity driven.

Result: The Dow and S&P 500 are up around 12% each, making this one of the most accurate forecasts on the street.

4) The most hyped IPO of the year will be Facebook, creating several new billionaires, and hundreds of new multi-millionaires in the San Francisco Bay Area.  SF-based Twitter doesn’t go public, but instead, gets bought out with the richly valued stock of Facebook or another media titan.  There’s no doubt once Facebook goes public, they will go on a buying spree, enriching even more innovative companies around the Bay Area.  SF-based LinkedIn is the dark horse, with a current perceived market valuation of $1 billion.  Seems pretty paltry compared to FB, and so I think they wait another year to ramp up more subscribers until analysts value the company closer to $2-3 billion.  SF property prices continue ticking higher as new wealth seeks multi-million dollar homes, and dollars fall from the sky!

Result: Although Facebook did not go public, it might as well be with  a private valuation of some $45 billion from just $20 billion at the beginning of the year.  As a result, competitors such as Google have upped the war on talent stakes by giving their entire staff 10% raises at a cost of US$1 billion.  Twitter stays private, as does LinkedIn and their values continue to grow to some $4 billion and $3 billion as well.  SF property prices have remained very sticky and are resuming their upward trend with cheap money and the wealth effect from Facebook and other companies.  Nobody needs to sell in SF, which creates a dearth of inventory.

5) The Samurai Fund outperforms the S&P 500 index by 300 basis points (3%)! The 15+ entries so far are wonderfully unique, and everybody has done a great job in putting their synopsis together.  With controlled randomness in picking names, each team member has a critical roll in keeping abreast of their names and providing opinions on whether to add to their positions or reduce.  Due to the outperformance, the Samurai Fund gets noticed by finance sites we never imagined would care about our tiny corner of the universe, and the team achieves fame!

Result: The Samurai Fund is up 18.8% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 by 7%!  We’ve blown away expectations simply by randomly picking stocks based on the permutations of our names and blogs.  18.8% up puts us in the top 5% of all funds.  We’ve done absolutely zero work, and this just goes to show the randomness of it all.  Given our massive outperformance, if we really had a $1 billion hedge fund to start with, each participant would have made $15 million in salary on average!  I need to go pitch this performance to some major media outlets.

GOALS FOR 2010 – LOTS OF FAILURES

1) Make a million bucks. Yes, it’s a lofty goal that I’ve failed every year, but that doesn’t stop me from trying!  The income can come from private equity investments, stock market, salary, rental income, and other, such as winning the World Series of Poker.  Setting lofty goals forces the mind to constantly think of new ways of surviving, while motivating me to work hard everyday.

Result: Fail.  Had a job offer that came close, but turned it down.  Guess I love what I do in SF so much.  Call me crazy but I truly believe after making a certain amount of money you are no happier.  Side net income has blossomed to equal the average GDP per capita of Germany, but still remains a minor portion of overall income.  It would be great to increase side income to 25% of total income by 2017.  It’s funny how not blogging for money leads to money.

2) Win a tennis tournament. I got beat by a 60 year old (!), ex Davis cup player in the semi-finals of a tournament this year due to a right calf cramp.  If I beat him, I would have won the tournament.  Disappointing, because my opponent was about to keel over at 5-5 in the 2nd set and give up.  It’s not good enough to have skill, and mental fortitude if your body can’t hold up.  So really, winning the tennis tournament is a physical health resolution of eating right, working out, and staying injury free.

Result: Fail.  Entered two tournaments and got to the semi-finals twice.  Physical fitness let me down as I had a difficult time playing two consecutive matches at the same level.  Very frustrating and will work harder on fitness for 2011, and my backhand.

3) Meet 36 new people, or 3 every month. It’s really a joy meeting new people, be it in person or online and hear their story.  We can learn so much from others, no matter their background or age.  I will keep a log of who I meet, and write 3 things I’ve learned and admire about each new person.  The solution to “If I knew then, what I know now” is to simply seek people who’ve been where you are heading already and listen to them!

Result: Success.  I’m not sure exactly how many new people I’ve met, but the Yakezie alone is 60 Members with 40 more in the wing.  Meanwhile, I’ve met at least 25 new people in real life.  I even met Leo Babauta from Zen Habits, a kind man with a fantastic site who I longed to meet when I first heard about his decision to move to San Francisco a year ago.  There are three other people who really stand out and now I wonder how many friends you need to be happy?

4) Try and always see the good in others. In “Everything Is Rational, The Answer To All Things Irrational”, I highlight a more peaceful way of thinking that soothes my raging soul.  It’s important to stop taking slights/rejections personally, and just keep having fun.  It’s very easy to be overly critical of others and act like a meanie, which is not the way I want to live my life.  We shouldn’t try and impose our will on others.  Avoid associating with “black clouds,” those people who are naturally pessimistic and grumpy by nature!

Result: Ongoing.  I continue to work on my patience while trying to help other people think for themselves.  Every year I’m a little bit more relaxed and a little more mellow.  I do not associate with black clouds and people who would rather complain than try harder. I’m very proud of the Yakezie Scholarship initiative we’ve created.  To see a concept turn into reality is one of the most gratifying things.  Please show your support and register and vote for your favorite.

5) Stay consistent, but not obsessive with this site. Any publisher will tell you that producing consistent content over the long run is hard.  This is why I really admire all of you who have started a website, no matter how big or small, as well as those who comment regularly!  It’s also important not to get addicted to blogging to the detriment of family, friends, and work.  From 7am-7pm on weekdays my personal e-mail and Twitter account will continue to be off.

Guest post submissions are always welcome.  And even if they are declined, know that someone will accept it.  You can always publish on your own site too, like I plan to do for one of my rejected submissions from 3 months ago (too controversial they said)!  There are no subscriber, comments, revenue goals for the site.  The only thing I wish for is progress, my one word definition of happiness.

Result: Semi-success.  For 52 consecutive weeks, I’ve been able to average 3.3 posts on Financial Samurai.  As a result, readership and activity continues to grow.  We’re talking growth of over 1,000 subscribers and 60,000 page views a month although I don’t keep track of the specific numbers. There’s been some really good guest posts that have straddled minimalism to becoming a Certified Financial Planner.  I’m not addicted to blogging, but I very much enjoy the activity.  I bought an iPhone this summer which allows me to send out the occasional tweet during the day and keep up to speed with blogging related e-mails.  The launch of Yakezie.com forced my hand to get more involved, which is why I say semi-success because I don’t want to get too involved.

6) Put an acoustic album together of 10 songs I can play, sing and record. I’ve had my Martin Acoustic D-16 guitar for 10 years now, and it is in perfect shape because I don’t practice enough!  Current songs on the list include: Black Bird by Paul McCartney, Every Rose Has Its Thorn by Poison, Five String Serenade and Fade Into You by Mazzy Star, First Day of My Life by Bright Eyes, Nothing Left to Lose by Matt Kearney, More Than Words by Extreme.  Need three more!

Result: Fail.  Recorded three four five songs.  I recently recorded Paramore’s The Only Exception, but I’m disappointed in my vocals and strumming.  It’s hard to sing a song that’s originally sung by a woman.  I need to get some singing lessons and get out of my limited baritone range.  A lot of work to do!  Here are the other two: Name and Five String Serenade.  Thanks to some supportive comments after this post, just recorded: First Day of My Life and Landslide.

7) Learn to cook three delicious dishes for each meal of the day and put together a menu. Breakfast is easy.  Lunch a little bit harder, and dinner the hardest.  A resolution I talked with my wife about two years ago since she was so gung ho about cooking then.  Unfortunately, the enthusiasm sputtered out, so I’m going to do it on my own, and hopefully inspire her to make her own menu.

Result: Absolute non-starter.  I made hardly any attempt at cooking at all.  It’s just not in me.  I’d rather go out to eat for the convenience, experience, and quality.  I have begun to eat better and cut down my meat intake though.

8) Save at least 50% of my 2010 gross income and build the “Freedom Fund” to at least $200,000 by year end. You can consider the Freedom Fund as a net worth barometer since the inception of the site.  The traditional net worth calculation is an illusion. Cash and cash flow are the only things that matters.  Note: The goal for this particular fund is to reach $1 million five years after inception.

Result: Success on both counts.  I saved more than 50% of my gross income due to a raise in January, no lifestyle inflation, and mortgage refinancing which lowered my payments for my primary and rental.  Thank you Bernanke!  I had a “Freedom Fund” tracker widget in the beginning, but found it somewhat obnoxious and distracting, hence took it down.  I’m surprised I gave out a specific figure because I’m a fly-below-the-radar type of person.  Who wants to know the details of some of my finances anyway?  Boring!  More interesting to look at other blogger’s net worth calculations and how they got there.

CONCLUSION

I’m pleased to see many predictions come true, which has also resulted in some decent wealth creation given I invested accordingly.  As for my resolutions, it’s interesting to see so many failures.  Earning a million bucks and winning a tennis tournament were admittedly stretch goals, however they were goals I failed to achieve nonetheless.  I’ve discovered cooking doesn’t interest me one bit (just eating), but making music does so greatly.  I’m most proud of the fact that I didn’t burn out blogging and in fact upped the ante with the launch of Yakezie.com.

Hopefully for those of you who’ve followed along all year, you’ve been able to broaden your thoughts on the multitude of subjects on this site.  I also hope you’ve made a good amount of money by refinancing your mortgage this summer and going more aggressive into riskier asset classes thanks to so many positive anecdotes revealing a very strong recovery.  Stay tuned for my predictions and resolutions for 2011!

Best,

Sam

Sam started Financial Samurai in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis as a way to make sense of chaos. After 13 years working on Wall Street, Sam decided to retire in 2012 to utilize everything he learned in business school to focus on online entrepreneurship.

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Comments

  1. retirebyforty says

    WOW, I think you did great for 2010. You have a great mix of super ambitious and achievable goals and you did quite well on most of them. I didn’t make any resolution for 2010, it was kind of a crappy new year since I had to deal with some health issue. I’m definitely shooting for a few goals in 2011 and will write a post about it. My goals won’t be as ambitious though, I’m more a the achievable goals type. Have a great holidays!

  2. Everyday Tips says

    Very interesting post. Just curious, did you review your goals throughout the year to attempt to attain them, or were they something you captured on FS? I have considered really capturing some goals for 2011 and see if frequent revisiting helps. (Like when I go read for that cookie instead of an apple…:) )

    I hated 2010 and can’t wait to see it go. However, I did discover blogging, and that is one good thing. I agree about the blog addiction, it is easy to become an addict. I am hoping I can pull back some next year and not care about the stats and focus more on the writing.

    The accuracy of your predictions is very impressive. If only making a million/year was as easy!

    • Financial Samurai says

      How could you hate 2010 with so much progress on your site!? :)

      I reviewed my goals 4X this year, but for a big 5 month gap at the end of the year b/c I wanted to make sure I finished the year strong at work, and make sure Yakezie.com launched and ran as smoothly as possible.

      I was really discouraged when I couldn’t finger pick the song to Just Breathe by Eddie Veder (Pearl Jam).. so I stopped playing guitar for 4 months and it shows.

      As for the stats, I seldom ever check them, and only when someone asks me to which was perhaps 2 or 3 X this year. The Alexa toolbar is all I see and need frankly.

      Gluck in 2011!

      • Everyday Tips says

        Regarding 2010, my blog was a good thing that came out of it, so that is good. My kids and husband are great, and we are financial fine. So I don’t want to seem ungrateful or anything. I have just had a hard time with the loss of my father. Then a few other things happened on top of that and I just feel like I need a break from this year.

        As far as Eddie Vedder goes, have you picked up the guitar again? Is there a song you could learn that would be a ‘step below’ your target song and could as a bridge to get you where you want to be?

  3. Kevin @ Thousandaire.com says

    I’m jealous of your voice Sam. You have a very distinctive voice, and if you got lessons and trained it, I think you’d sound awesome. I also think the recordings are really good. Were they done professionally?

    Let me know when you’re ready to collaborate with me on one of my songs!

    • Financial Samurai says

      A collaboration would be sweet! A little baritone and falsetto mix yeah??

      The recordings were done on my Mac with a Blue Snowball MIC in Garageband. I have some serious lack of editing skill, which is mainly why I’m so frustrated at recording b/c I can play everything perfect until the very end, and then need to start all over or cut it out. Mad props to live performers!

      • Kevin @ Thousandaire.com says

        Interesting. I don’t have a Mac, so I use Audacity for my recording and an audio technica microphone.

        I may need to find some better recording software.

        And I feel your pain on the recording stuff. If something repeats (for example, the verses in “Only Exception”, I’ll just record one good one, and then copy and paste that for all the other verses.

        PS, you’ve also made me want to record that song, just to see how my voice sounds on it.

  4. N.W.Journey says

    This was a very cool post to read! About the song, why not transpose it to a more comfortable key for you to sing? I haven’t heard your voice, but going by the compliments you’re receiving, your range may not be a problem. Much continued success to you in meeting your goals for the upcoming year!

  5. Paul Williams says

    I agree with the others, you have a good voice. I’d say some training would help a lot in making it sound more “professional”, but it’s interesting as is.

    Despite failing to achieve some of your goals, no one can fault you for being ambitious. Plus, you’ve still accomplished a lot despite those few failures.

    And thanks for including my guest post again. I’m glad you liked it! I’m finishing up the application process right now actually and hope to have my certification early next year. :)

    Merry Christmas, Sam!

    • Financial Samurai says

      Yep, appreciate your post on becoming a CFP. It is much more difficult than I thought since one has to go through those hours of on the job training as well. Cant just study, take the exam and voila!

      I think a professional mixer and editor actually can make the world of difference to music. Think about how good so many singers sound on CD, but when you hear them live, you’re like HUH? This is the best I can do for now, but I’m inspired to keep on trying.

      Happy holidays!

  6. MoneyCone says

    2010 wasn’t a very good year for me, but makes me happy to see how well you’ve managed your goals!

    Two of your goals strike a chord – 3 and 4!

    Congrats and wish you the best in accomplishing all your goals in 2011!

    • Financial Samurai says

      Yeah Goals 3 and 4 about meeting new people and seeing the good in others are really important. It’s way more fun having people to socialize with and share your pain and triumphs with. Don’t need to know a ton of people, but enough where you can share your myriad of interests with.

      Why wasn’t 2010 a very good year for you?

  7. First Gen Americans says

    Your goals are so diverse in scope. They are so well rounded and I’m impressed at your usage of both sides of your brain. I can’t wait to see the 2011 list.

    I worry about the blog/work/life balance as well. Best to just have the personal stuff shut off during the day, but some days it’s such a welcome distraction.

    • Financial Samurai says

      Thanks! Must be a product of the educational system growing up b/c they always told us to be diverse in extracurricular activity: sports, arts, and studies. After years of working, a lot of everything starts to fade, even my foreign language skills, which I do not want to let happen.

      Hope you had a great 2010!

    • Financial Samurai says

      Ha, thx mate. Yes, I feel fortunate to have a job. Not sure when exactly, but lifestyle inflation stopped creeping higher about 3-4 years ago. I’ve found contentment with what I have except for that new Audi R8 Spyder………

      Hope you had a good 2010!

      Cheers

      • MoneyNing says

        2010 has been good, so no complaints :)

        M3, S5, R8… you really love your cars! I heard Audi is coming up with a hybrid or full electric super car. Maybe that’s in your future!

        • MoneyNing says

          No recap and goals post for me since I don’t like the idea of using calendar year as the deadline. I change my goals through the year to motivate myself constantly. I have a long term goal and very short term ones. I feel like if I take care of the short term ones (~ 1-3 months) and are well on my way on the long term ones, the medium term ones will take care of themselves.

          I know just typing it lacks credibility but it’s worked okay for me :)

  8. Sunil from The Extra Money Blog says

    Congratulations Sam.

    I am guessing a big reason why you are not addicted (or so anxious / dependent upon) to blogging is because you are satisfied in your career? I am guessing this because I have been in the exact same position before.

    I like the idea of a freedom fund, but how similar or different is it from a savings account?

    Will be in San Fran in May with Boss Lady – up for coffee?

    Any special events in May?

    • Financial Samurai says

      Maybe Sunil. With hobbies, I’m generally not anxious or dependent upon it for anything. It’s just a hobby. Blogging is not for the money. And with the money that does come in, it’s just kinda loose change stuff you know? Until the income is well over $100,000 a year, I won’t be taking it very seriously.

      The Freedom Fund is just another fund in addition to savings. It’s just a classification and no different.

      Shoot me an email in May and remind me. I can’t see that far ahead. Cheers

  9. Charlie says

    Sweet! My accomplishments in 2010 don’t come anywhere close to yours. That’s awesome that you’ve done all that and recorded all those songs too, wow. I think my work/life balance is pretty good. I’m enjoying work a lot more than a year ago, but I’m also working a lot harder and thus more exhausted when I come home. I guess more happiness is worth the extra energy it takes to get there. My cooking and music goals also failed miserably but I think I’m eating a lot healthier which I feel good about. I did pretty good with my educational goals too but there’s always more to do. I’ve got a decent start on my 2011 goals, but a bunch are carryover so I guess I need to add “Get more done” as one of my resolutions. :) Great post!

  10. Aloysa says

    Haha! I just posted today that I don’t set up goals. Now you on the other hand… Quite ambitious, quite impressive and quite … complex. I loved a mention of a poker (I am a poker player myself, so I appreciate the ambition.) :-)

    Very interesting post that tells a lot about Sam. I think I got to know you better from this post than from any other I’ve read on your blog.

    • Financial Samurai says

      When I didn’t achieve things I stopped setting goals almost like an excuse to make myself feel better. I don’t do that anymore. I really WANT to improve on 2 or 3 things every year. The beauty of blogging is that it helps keep the writer accountable.

      I’m not afraid to try. I don’t care if I fail. But, I do care if I fail do to a lack of effort! It’s too easy to slide on by in life without any goals, hence why I have them. That said, to each their own!

      Cheers

  11. Darwin's Money says

    Great year! You’re firing on all cylinders. I’ll have to get in on the 2011 Samurai Fund; I expect more runup in the market, especially emerging markets. You doing a 2011 prediction post soon?

    • Financial Samurai says

      Thanks mate. OK, will do some portfolio reshuffling and boot names who’ve disappeared from the blogosphere.

      2011 prediction post will be next week. What about your 2010 review and 2011 predictions?

  12. Evan says

    Those are some fantastic goals! and it is impressive how well you did on them. I really like how the yakezie group helped out on one of them.

    Considering how much you do it is shocking how much you done on your site.

  13. Barb Friedberg says

    Sam, Wow, those are a ton of goals. I really enjoyed reading them and thought the fund idea was really cute. Was it Dan Goldie who beat you in the tournament? I like that you are turned off from personal stuff from 7-7. Really good balance! Thanks for the entertaining and informative read!

    • Financial Samurai says

      I can’t believe the fund is up a whopping 18.8%! Ridiculous! If only I had all my money in there and it was a real hedge fund! hahaha. Love it!

      Hope to read some of your 2010 review and 2011 resolutions!

  14. Little House says

    I’m really impressed. Not only are your goals quite diverse, you’ve accomplished a lot this year! I’m always so focused on financial crap, I mean stuff, I often forget about the fun goals like hike Mt. Whitney (a decade long goal of mine) or volunteer for Habitat for Humanity (something I’ve wanted to do for a while now.) This has inspired me to branch out on my upcoming 2011 goals. Happy Holidays, Sam!

    • Financial Samurai says

      Only half, but thanks! I donno, I guess the financial stuff gets a little boring for me after a while since so much is so automated. Hence, I’m thinking of taking some financial risks for 2011!

      Hope you hike Mt. Whitney next year!

  15. krantcents says

    I found your review very interesting! I particularly liked the mix of recreational, personal and professional goals. I am looking forward to see your 2011 predictions.

  16. Barb Friedberg says

    Sam, I have a “surprise” in my new years resolutions post, and I’m linking to you! It’ll run in the next week or two. Also, the rule about all TOP PERFROMING FUNDS, I’m rarely in them! (Like to think of myself as a single hitter, not a home run hitter!). But, the other part, they rarely repeat their performance!
    @Jennifer- I have wanted to volunteer for Habitat for years. I love the build stuff!

  17. youngandthrifty says

    Wow- you have accomplished so much- you are really the epitome of a person living their life to the fullest with no regrets. Truly an inspiration.

    I just listened to all your songs- you are so talented!!! I should learn to play the guitar, it’s my favourite instrument to listen to. Does your wife know you’ve been recording songs? I’m sure she’ll enjoy being serenaded to :)

    It’s amazing how you find the time to do so much, since you’ve been so busy with the Yakezie and all. You really learned how to find “balance” that the rest of us all strive for. ;)

    • Financial Samurai says

      Thanks for listening to all the songs! I tried really, REALLY hard with them. Fun, but very time consuming.

      My goal is to make readers feel like I’m a full-time blogger, while at the same time make my company and clients feel they are the only one. It’s important to have a total separation, just like what happened for 3 years going to business school part-time. I didn’t want to ever let any outside activity affect my day job.

      Thanks for all your thoughts this year, and best to you and your BF with your new fat pad!!

      • youngandthrifty says

        I think you are doing a very good job with that, you’ve definitely seemed to have achieved your goal. Best wishes to 2011, you have some great goals for 2011 and I know you will achieve and succeed those goals easily.

        thanks re: home, you mean our new “phat” pad? I forget which one it is, fat or phat. ;)

        • youngandthrifty says

          PS you should do a Yakezie album! That would be awesome. Or just a Financial Samurai one because we don’t if there are any other talented people in the Yakezie.

          I can play that trombone… not very well though. It’s been a long time lol.

  18. Sandy @ yesiamcheap says

    Somewhere on there you should have added, “donate 50% of salary to yesiamcheap”. I think you might have missed it.

  19. Mike Hunt says

    You should try singing for a band. Not sure what you look like or how your stage presence is but you have a nice voice.

    -Mike

  20. Kay Lynn says

    Where do you hide your crystal ball? You did very well with those predictions.

    Your progress with the 2010 goals was amazing. I don’t know how you have energy for it all! i enjoyed the songs; I’m a big Stevie Nicks fan.

    I’m looking forward to 2011 for all Yakezie members!

    • Financial Samurai says

      Just lucky guesses! You’re in luck too as I’ll have a predictions post up soon here and a goals post up on Yakezie.com next Monday!

      Energy will definitely fade eventually, which is why I need help from everybody!

      Cheers

  21. Invest It Wisely says

    Great results for 2010, Sam! Hope you continue slicing through more of life’s mysteries and advance further through 2011.

    P.S. Agree with Y&N, I just listened to a track and not bad at all! You’re a pretty skilled Samurai.

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