Explaining Why The Median 401(k) Retirement Balance By Age Is Dangerously Low
You likely won’t be able to live off your 401(k) alone in retirement, but you should be able to combine your 401(k) with alternative savings, investments, and Social Security to live a financially free life when the time comes to withdraw at the age of 59.5.
The below chart shows what a typical 22 year old college graduate should have accumulated in their 401(k) if they followed my advice and started maxing out their 401(k) after two years of working. The high end shows what happens if there is roughly a 5% constant rate of return from investing. I’m not even including contributions or company match to keep things conservative.
The reality is that the median account balance in the U.S. is only around $99,320 at the end of 2012 according to a study by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies. At least the median has risen by over 100% from around $47,000 during the depths of the bear market in 2009. Furthermore, the current median account balance is now higher than pre-crash 2007 levels of $74,781 thanks to contributions.
Given the median age of Americans is 35.3 according to the US Census Bureau, the median 401(k) balance per person should be closer to $215,000-$331,000 according to my 401(k) retirement savings guide instead of $99,320. So what happened to the missing $115,000 to $240,000?
FINANCIAL SAMURAI PRE-TAX SAVINGS GUIDELINE (401(k) + IRA)
|Age||Years Worked||Low End||High End|
HOW MUCH DO PEOPLE REALLY SAVE FOR RETIREMENT?
The base case assumption is the typical American after 13 years of working has roughly $100,000 in their 401(k) accounts at age 35. As a result, we can assume that the average person from ages 22-35 only saves around $5,800 a year. We can also assume incomes rise over time, and therefore absolute savings amounts also rise over time. Below is a reworked chart to better reflect what the average person has in their 401(k) + IRAs due to job changes. Unfortunately, something wrong happens between the ages of 35 to 65.
|Age||Years Worked||Low End||High End|
|35||13||All good until here. $75,000||All good until here. $110,000|
|65||43||What happened? $400,000||What happened? $800,000|
Everything looks much more reasonable right? We’re only talking about $6,000-$9,500 in savings a year until age 65 for the low end to reach $400,000 by the age of 65 after 43 years of work. But guess what, even the new realistic low end assumptions are too high based on the following facts of median 401(k) balances for those in retirement age.
Median 401(k) Balances For Retirees (65) At Different Income Brackets
• For people who earn between $20-$40,000 a year the median 401k account at retirement is ~$70,000 (83% short)
• For people who earn between $40-$60,000 a year the median 401k account at retirement is ~$105,000 (74% short)
• For people who earn between $60-$80,000 a year the median 401k account at retirement is ~$170,000 (58% short)
• For people who earn between $80-$100,000 a year the median 401k account at retirement is ~$255,000 (36% short)
• For people who earn over $100,000 a year the median 401k account at retirement is ~$370,000 (still 10% short)
As you can see, only folks who earn over $100,000 come close to my more realistic chart above at $345,000-$500,000 at age 60. The problem is, the median income in America is only around $50,000-$60,000 a year resulting in a median 401(k) account of only around $105,000 at retirement! With $105,000, you might be able to get three years living in San Francisco if you’re lucky!
Something happens between ages 35-60 where one accumulates only $30,000 more until retirement. Clearly statistics are playing tricks on us again because it’s hard to fathom someone would only saving $1,300 a year during their highest paying years.
EXAMPLE FROM THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF RETIRED PERSONS USING AVERAGES INSTEAD OF MEDIAN
|Average 401(k) Balance By Age Group 2013|
|Age||Real Average Balance||Financial Samurai Suggested Balance||Shortfall|
|50-54||$224,000||$468,000 – $1,075,000||50-75%|
|55-59||$250,000||$553,000 – $1,470,000||55-80%|
|60-64||$234,000||$638,000 – $1,974,000||60-85%|
|65-69||$228,000||$723,000 – $2,618,000||65-90%|
|70+||$230,000||Enough To Live Until 110||Bailout Alert|
|Source: AARP / FinancialSamurai.com 2013|
If you retire at the age of 65 with only $228,000 with nothing else except for a $1,500/month Social Security check, how long do you think you can survive comfortably in retirement? Let’s also assume that your house is also fully paid off. In San Francisco, Honolulu, and New York City, I *might* be able to happily live for six ($35,000 a year gross) assuming I don’t have major medical expenses. Let’s double the time to twelve years if you live anywhere else in the world. We better die at 77 or else life is going to get even tougher!
Note: Fidelity came out on 2/14/2013 highlighting the average of their 12 million 401(k) plan participants is up 12% to $77,300. For workers 55 years of age or older, the average balance is $143,300. These are terrible numbers.
401K BY AGE DISCREPANCIES EXPLAINED
I’ve been consulting with more clients about their personal finances and what I’ve discovered is that something always seems to come up and knock someone off their retirement savings path. It’s all fine and dandy to assume everyone should logically max out their 401(k) or at least save 20% of their after tax income until retirement, but this is seldom the case. With consent from my clients, let me share three case studies to illustrate some points. I’ll also highlight one reader’s e-mail feedback about the topic as well as my own example. Names are changed for privacy reasons.
Case Study One – Family To Support
Joe is 42 years old and makes $120,000 a year as an engineer. He’s been working for 19 years and has $80,000 in his 401(k) (vs $300,000+ recommended). When I asked him to share his 401(k) situation he shrugged. He never considered maxing out his 401(k) because he always thought he wouldn’t have enough money left to take care for his wife and son. His wife worked for the first eight years and decided to stay at home after giving birth. Going from a two income family to a one income family is difficult if you’re not use to saving half.
Joe has about $12,000 in after-tax savings which will cover about four months of living expenses just in case something bad happens. Given the thin buffer, we talked about the importance of getting long term disability. When I dug deeper, I realized Joe has a penchant for fixing up old cars. All told, he’s spent over $60,000 after taxes to beautify his two 1959 Mustangs.
Case Study Two – Expensive Living
Sally is 32 years old, and makes $75,000 + bonus as a medical equipment sales rep. Sally got her Master’s degree in healthcare, and graduated with $27,000 in debt at the age of 24. She pays about $500 a month in student loans which she plans to pay off in 10 years tops.
After seven and a half years of working at a reputable firm, Sally has $70,000 in her 401(k) compared to a recommended $127,000 after eight years of work experience according to my guide. Sally only contributed 10% of her annual gross salary into her 401(k) because of her school debt, car payments, credit card payments, and $2,600 a month rent here in San Francisco. Sally’s case shows that education is expensive and good paying jobs come with higher cost of living. Sally has about $5,000 in savings in the bank.
Case Study Three – High Income Burnout
Susie is 34 years old, single and makes $150,000 + bonus as a VP at an investment bank based in San Francisco. She’s been working for 12 consecutive years out of college. In between years 10 and 12, Susie took a 1.5 year hiatus to become a baker during the financial crisis. She was burned out and wanted to try something new. But, after spending $25,000 for tuition, missing out on 1.5 years worth of income, and getting screamed at while making only $10 an hour, she realized being a baker at a restaurant was not for her. “If I’m going to get yelled at making $10 an hour, I might as well make a lot of money!” Susie joked.
Susie has about $150,000 in her 401(k), 50% higher than the current median according to Transamerica. However, given she didn’t earn any money for 1.5 years and payed a lot for tuition, Susie is also about $50,000 light based on my guide. Susie was only contributing about 10% of her pre-tax income to her 401(k) for her entire career because she didn’t want to tie her money up beyond the company match.
Case Study Four – Highly Educated Couple
An e-mai from a reader responding to the Average Net Worth For The Above Average Person article:
“I noticed that most of your posts are geared towards people who start working at age 22 with minimal debt – as just one example, your “above average” people projections.
But many “above average” people do not start working at age 22 and incur substantial debt before they start working. For example, I am a lawyer that obtained a master’s degree and then a law degree before starting my career at age 28. My wife is a doctor, who completed her residency and started practicing at age 28 as well. Both of us started our careers with substantial student loan burdens – over $325,000 between the both of us.
Our late start means we lose a lot of the magic of compounding interest. And our debt burden takes a big chunk of our monthly income. These are significant challenges.”
Case Study Five – Early Retiree
My 401(k) has grown to roughly $415,000 as of today at the age of 35. Although $415,000 is roughly $80,000 above the high end of the range for someone who has contributed for 13 years, my 401(k) is at serious risk of falling behind given I no longer contribute or have a company match. My last year of work saw over $25,000 in company 401(k) match that I’m starting to miss. Cherish your 401(k) match and profit sharing while you still got it!
Based on a conservative portfolio analysis (4% per annum growth, no contributions or match), my 401K will grow from $400,000 to roughly $1,100,000 by the age of 65, the low end of my guide. Although I think 4% per annum growth is feasible, I still fear horrendous bear markets in the future. A company match and profit sharing buffered my portfolio extremely well during the downturns of 2001-2003 and 2008-2010. I now feel my portfolio is swimming naked, which is why I need to be extra disciplined in my rebalancing.
We’ve read four examples of people who do not meet the range in my 401(k) Retirement Savings Guideline chart despite earning healthy salaries. I also do not feel confident I’ll reach the high end of $2.6 million by the time I turn 65. You might therefore come to the conclusion that my 401(k) Retirement Savings Guideline is off and you would be correct given the average 401(k) balance for a 35 year old is roughly $100,000 and not $215,000 as I would like.
But, you would be incorrect to assume my guide is off based on what you really need when you no longer have a job. You just have to do the math yourself to see if you can live off even $250,000 as the AARP picture highlights for the next 20-30 years in retirement.
DO YOU WANT TO BE JUST AVERAGE?
Life gets in the way of our retirement savings plans all the time. We have tuition to pay, expensive cars to fix, vacations to take, concerts to attend, shoes to buy, Range Rover Superchargers to drive, alimony to pay, sickness to deal with and economic dislocations to experience. Some of us just like to honestly blow lots of money and not give a damn! There’s always an excuse for not saving. However, if you don’t want to become one of those tragedy stories or a burden to your fellow citizens, then I suggest increasing your 401(k) contributions and after tax savings percentages.
If the amount you are savings doesn’t hurt, then you are not saving enough. At the end of our careers, we only have ourselves to blame if we come up short. Unless you have developed alternative income streams, paid off your house, and have other after tax savings, living off $350,000-$500,000 for the next 20-30 years is just $12,000 – $25,000. Pay yourself first before anything else and max out your 401K. After you’ve maxed out your 401(k), figure out where you can save some more.
Even if you do reach my retirement savings guide of $638,00 – $2,000,000 by the age of 60, you aren’t going to be living it up for the next 20-30 years if that’s all you got. You’ve seen the various 401k portfolio scenarios I’ve run based off just a $400,000 portfolio and you know inflation is a killer. Life happens. Just make sure you keep life happy.
Readers, are you worried about having enough in your 401(k) or retirement savings in general for those outside of the US? What are some of the reasons inhibiting you from contributing more to your retirement savings accounts? Do you think our/your country is going to have a retirement crisis in 30 years time given Gen Y and Gen X do not save and don’t have a bull market in stocks and real estate to carry us over yet?
About the Author: Sam began investing his own money ever since he first opened a Charles Schwab brokerage account online in 1995. Sam loved investing so much that he decided to make a career out of investing by spending the next 13 years after college on Wall Street. During this time, Sam received his MBA from UC Berkeley with a focus on finance and real estate. He also became Series 7 and Series 63 registered. In 2012, Sam was able to retire at the age of 35 largely due to his investments that now generate over six figures a year in passive income. He now spends his time playing tennis, spending time with family, and writing online to help others achieve financial freedom.
Photo: Kayaking on beautiful Lake Tahoe.
Check out Personal Capital’s “401K Fee Analyzer” which shows how much money you are wasting. I was paying $1,000+ in excess portfolio fees I had no idea I was paying. As a result, I’ve rebalanced into a similar fund that has 80% lower fees. Go to the Investing tab on the top right and then click 401K Fee Analyzer to see how you can optimize.