For the longest time, I’ve been a proponent of the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). Paying a higher rate for a longer duration than necessary doesn’t make economic sense. However, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate now under 3%, the bias is no longer as heavily weighted towards adjustable rate mortgages.
A 2.98% average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is so low, it must be spurring more people to buy homes.
With a global pandemic still raging on, I am curious to know who is buying a home in this environment. Let’s read some homebuyer profiles of people taking advantage of record low mortgage rates.
Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate At Record Low: Buyer Profiles
The one thing every homebuyer or potential homebuyer has in common is that all of them have not been financially hurt by the pandemic. Instead, most are now wealthier during the pandemic than pre-pandemic. These people are taking advantage of the record low average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Here are their stories.
Who Is Buying #1: Big Tech Employee
The NASDAQ is up over 20% year-to-date in 2020. Many of my tech colleagues are all looking to buy their first homes or upgrade homes. I work at Apple and Apple stock is up around 28%. As a result, my colleagues and I feel much richer today than we did before the pandemic began. It’s weird.
One of the best moves I ever made was not going to a small start up three years ago. They were gonna give me huge equity that would’ve made me tremendously wealthy today if things panned out. However, the start up is struggling with cash flow, while Apple continues to dominate.
With our net worth up ~20% in just six months, we decided to buy a bigger house for our family of five. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate at under 3% is just icing on the cake. I’m gonna follow your advice and get a 7/1 ARM for 2.375% since we plan to pay off the home in 7 years.
Turning stock market gains into a real asset feels great to me. We are not unique. Most of my tech friends are diversifying their stock gains into real estate.
Who Is Buying #2: Sick & Tired Of Being Overly Frugal
For over 10 years, I’ve been saving between 20% to 50% of my after-tax income. My income has also gone from $80,000 to $165,000 during this time frame. But I’m still renting a studio apartment from when I was 25 years old. I’m sick and tired of hoarding so much cash. What’s the point if I’m not going to spend it?
Living in a studio apartment has helped me save about $160,000 in living expenses. At the same time, the studio apartment has also cost me money. If I had just bought a property I was looking at back in 2010 for $300,000, it would now be worth more than $500,000 today. I would have also gotten to enjoy a nicer place for all these years as well.
Although I’m happy to have saved a lot over the past 10 years, I feel it’s now time to use my savings to improve the quality of my life. I’m 37 years old and want more space. I want to get married and start a family too. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate under 3% is too enticing to ignore.
Who Is Buying #3: Parents Who Plan To Permanently Work From Home
With work from home likely becoming a permanent trend, I think it’s smart to try and buy a home now before open houses go back to the norm. Eventually, the economy will open up and buyers will return in droves.
All of my friends with kids are fearful of venturing outside. They don’t want to get sick or their children sick. I have friends who are too scared to even set up a private showing because they don’t want to breathe the indoor air that other people have breathed.
I can understand the fear, but come on. The death rate is so low, I think some people are being overly precautious. Absolutely wear a mask out in public though. Be respectful of other people’s health.
Now with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage so cheap, I feel more people will eventually come around to buying.
This debilitating mentality of not wanting to venture outside is eventually going to dissipate. When it does, I think bidding wars will be the norm again.
We are looking to buy a home that has two separate areas where my husband and I can work privately. We are also looking for a home with a nice yard or deck. If there’s a view, even better.
Finally, we already refinanced our existing primary home mortgage through Credible to get the lowest rate possible. Once we settle into our new home, we will then rent out our old home and generate passive income.
Who Is Buying #4: It’s Now Cheaper To Buy Than To Rent
The media likes to talk about a decline in rent prices without talking about a bigger decline in mortgage prices. Maybe this asymmetric reporting is a way for the media to try and “stick it to landlords” since the media knows that’s what readers like.
However, if rent prices are down 10% and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is down 30%, then owning has become relatively more affordable. Like duh. Such an obvious comparison that everybody seems to be missing.
In my city, buying is now cheaper than renting because mortgage rates have declined so much. There is a buying frenzy for starter homes and homes around our city’s median price.
I’ve moved up the price curve, along with several of my friends to find better value. With more people spending time at home, there is logically going to be more demand for homes.
Who Is Buying #5: Homes For My Children
I have older friends whose adult children decided to break their lease and move back in with them. Frankly, after four months of sheltering-in-place, they are sick of their children!
They want them out, paying their own rent, and experiencing more hardship. It’s this hardship that’s going to help make them get stronger in the future. One friend regrets letting his son back home at all. Now, every time he faces a hardship, he fears his son will just want to come home.
I figure, if rolling lockdowns are going to be the norm, then I would rather invest in properties today. The properties will be viewed as investments now and places for my children to stay in 15-20 years if needed. My kids are 7, 9, and 11.
In 15-20 years, when my kids have jobs, I think they are going to wish I had bought more property today. In 15-20 years, I will probably have paid off at least one property as well. I’d like to lock an average 30-year fixed-rate for under 3% before an economic rebound.
Given I’m investing for a 20+-year time horizon, I’m not worried about short-term price volatility. I know there’s risk to buying property now. But I’m seeing some relatively good deals.
Who Is Buying #6: We Found Our Dream Home
We live in a neighborhood with incredible ocean views. However, not all homes have ocean views. Only homes on the west side of the block do. If your home is on the east side of the block, you’re usually facing homes on the west side of the block, unless you built an addition.
In the past, every time a home with views went on the market, it would be snatched up within days. Even run down homes on the west side of the block would be purchased quickly. Thankfully, we stumbled upon a home that curiously decided to list in April, 30 days into shelter-in-place! Because April was the scariest and most uncertain month so far, few people were buying homes.
There was little competition and we were able to buy our dream home with views and more space for about 10% less than what the home would have sold for before shelter-in-place began. The home is also remodeled and ready to go.
After waiting for three years, we can’t believe our luck. Even if it takes a while for the housing market to recover, we’re thrilled to live in a nicer home for the next 10 years. Our finances are strong because we both are working from home. Our investments are also back to where they were at the beginning of the year.
Who Is Buying #7: I’m Going To Propose To My Girlfriend
I’m 26 years old and plan to propose to my girlfriend later this year. As a result, I am buying a two bedroom, two bathroom condominium for $560,000. The asking price was $580,000.
I came up with $30,000 of the downpayment, and my parents came up with the remaining $82,000. My uncle even offered $20,000, but I refused.
My girlfriend currently rents a room for $1,300 a month. She’ll move in with me and we’ll see if we can rent out the second bedroom for extra income.
Who Is Buying #8: We See Investment Opportunity
Whenever there is some sort of financial crisis, there is investment opportunity. We are buying single family homes in San Francisco that are 50% higher than the median price point because there is better value. Jumbo loans are harder to get at the moment, so we are taking advantage of less competition.
We’re also looking for distressed commercial real estate opportunities on platforms like EquityMultiple, CrowdStreet, and RealtyMogul. These companies are working with sponsors who are looking for the same opportunities. If priced low enough, some office buildings and hotels could be very attractive if the economy opens back up.
We’ve surveyed thousands of employees who say the ideal work environment would be 2-3 days in the office a week, 2-3 days at home. Office buildings are here to stay and travel will return.
The Wealth Gap Will Likely Widen
It is an incredibly weird time to buy real estate right now. Hopefully these stories and the subsequent comments in this post have provided you with more insights on who is buying today.
On the one hand, there are tens of millions of people unemployed or underemployed. On the other hand, the average mortgage rate for all durations have hit record-lows. Meanwhile, millions of stock investors who held on now have record-high or close to record-high portfolios.
After this recession is over, sadly, the wealth gap will likely widen even further. If you’re out of a job, there’s no way you’re going to buy a house, let alone get preapproved for a mortgage. But if you have a job, you can take advantage of such great discounts. These opportunities are the reasons why we financially prepare for so long.
The cities that continue to have strong job prospects will likely get even more expensive over time. For every one person who leaves, there is likely going to be 1.2 people who take their place. The decision to relocate to the middle of nowhere to save money is now being over-hyped.
Instead, we are creatures of habit. We like familiarity. If necessary, we will first look for cheaper places to live in our current cities. And we will find cheaper accommodations if we bother to look.
The Best Type Of Mortgage To Get
If you want, take out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for under 3%. I’ve got no more qualms about paying a higher rate. The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is declining again.
To pay off your loan quicker and save, consider getting a 15-year fixed mortgage for under 2.5%. If you have the cash flow, you’re going to feel great paying off your mortgage quicker.
Finally, if you are like me, then you might prefer a 5/1, 7/1, or 10/1 ARM at 2.375% or less. I just love paying the lowest interest rate possible.
I am completely gobsmacked that mortgages rates are so low.
With stock market wealth almost back to all-time highs or much higher, it almost feels like investors are on cheat mode. Add on the fact that millions of people now get to make the same amount of money working from home, the housing market is likely to stay buoyant.
Refinancing your mortgage now is clearly a no-brainer. Shop around for lower mortgage rates today. Just make sure you own or live in your home for much longer than the breakeven point. My refinance was “no-cost,” which means the fees are baked in.
If you can find a home that will improve the quality of your life, then buying a property today is probably going to work out fine in the long run. And if you can get a purchase price discount, even better.
Readers, did you ever envision the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declining to under 3%? If you are a real estate buyer in this market, I’d love to hear and feature your story!
I did a refi at 2.25% for a 30 yr fixed rate mortgage.
Awesome! How much did it cost you? Because it’s impossible to get that rate without paying points. Thanks
Don’t forget people leaving high population areas because of the pandemic! I know multiple NYC residents who’ve moved to more rural areas
Wrote my real estate love letter two days ago, and traded up the primary residence today. Scored a 6300 sf home home on .7 acre- room without immediate neighbors in a gated community. Will lock on Monday in the 2.625 to 2.75% 30 year fixed. Big time trade up and in the process, refinanced a rental property with a cash out of 40k to pay off one rental. Took the rate from 4.125 to 3.25 (investor property a little higher than owner occupied but still a great rate). I will take 50k out of savings to pay off a second rental and be left with a single rental property mortgage of 120k, two owned free and clear, and cash flow to cover 66% of the new mortgage. Sam, couldn’t have done it without some tips/ideas from your site. Thank you!
Jim
Any tips for finding such a low rate for a rental property? When I asked around this spring, I was quoted 1% higher for a rental property than an owner-occupied home.
Thanks,
Colin
We are retired and living off our investments, savings, ss, etc. We bought in 2016 in SF to hedge our assets and secure housing for offspring. We have a 30yr fixed – 3.5% loan. However, even when we pay off our mortgage, there is that nagging SF property tax. This year it was $18k. And it increases every year. Might have to go back to work . . . :(
Why not sell, cash-in and relocate to a low-cost state like AZ… just like CA (in the winter time)…
Another fantastic article Sam! Agree with your buyer categorization and perspective.
Wife and I are conservatively building a portfolio of properties and we close on our 4th home in 10 days. This property is located in Scottsdale, AZ – single family designed by FLW apprentice and will serve as our winter home in retirement. We scored 2.875% with 20% down which yields a total payment @ $3,100 with taxes and insurance. The home is currently rented for $8K/month (through 7/31) given its location and proximity to Old town Scottsdale. We plan to move in for a few months and then convert back to a rental.
We live in the Bay Area and considering to sell our primary home in SV and relocate to Carmel or Marin area since we predominately work from home. In preparation for this potential move, our lender offered us 2.75% with .6 points assuming 30% down. Should we stay, we plan to refi at the same rate with similar points. We’ll see…
Again thanks for your sharing your knowledge…
-ModScooter
Hello ModScooter,
I also live in the Bay Area and considered moving to Scottsdale one day. I have some rental properties in Goodyear. Was wondering which area of Scottsdale did you buy your latest property in, since it’s rented out for 8k. Thanks!
Hey Lovematcha!
McCormick Ranch (MCR) and specifically zip code – 85258. Rentals are super hot in this area especially for snowbirds. MCR is the greenest part of Scottsdale situated in the heart of Scottsdale. Family friendly, safe, short walking distance to parks, trails, retail and quick drive/bike to Old Town.
This property rents between $8500-$12000/month and has been rented by a few families since 2017 – 100% full every month. The AVG in this neighborhood is $7K for fully furnished 3-4 bedrooms. We are also purchasing it off-market from a family that owns several properties including one in Paradise Valley where they rent for $30K month. All of their properties are fully rented. They are also from the Bay Area and super RE astute.
Where do you live in the Bay? Looking to buy a place near Apple? :)
Best
ModScooter
I love following the real estate market. It’s so great for buyers that mortgage rates are so low and also good for refinancing. It takes a lot of patience to deal with the banks because of the amount of underwriting and lower staffing due to the pandemic, but it’s worth it for the savings.
Glad to see people are buying and taking advantage of good prices and low mortgage rates. It’s crazy how low the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now!
Great to read through all the comments on this post. To share my experience, we live outside of the US currently, but hold 2 investment properties in US (formerly were primary residences which we converted to rentals when we moved out).
Investment 1 – In a NYC metro area – 10% price reduction (based on zillow estimates) in this area. 1 bed 1.5 bath condo. Rental still going strong for now, but I fear how long will it be.
Investment 2 – In a small town suburbia in a Mid-Atlantic state .. prices are up about 1.5% since this time last year! Has taken us 10 years to recover (at least on paper) from the destruction of 07-08 on this property.
Following your lead and going in realestate investments through fundrise now since its easier to do.
My wife and I were days away from purchasing a home with my mother-in-law’s help when lockdowns started happening in March. Our rate was pretty low, around 3.5% (I know they’re lower now), and we were quite happy that we’d be able to get a new home at such a (then) great rate.
Unfortunately, the deal fell through due to the pandemic, but in the end it worked out for all of us. This is still an excellent time to buy and if rates don’t rise in the near future, we may take another shot at purchasing a home.
We bought property to build in last year in Idaho. We are sitting on our hands for the foreclosure market to raise its head to buy a rental that we can live in while our house is being built. Patience. We don’t think interest rates will go up any time soon.
Hi Sam,
Just left a review on itunes for you! Hope it helps you out per your call to action an episode or 2 ago.
Appreciate it Kevin! Always motivating to hear supportive feedback to keep on going.
“long term investing” At my age “long term” is 5 to 8 years. Fortunately, I have made my money. “long term” shortens with age. There is freedom in this. When I make an investment decision which loses money, I don’t have to live with the consequences for 30 years.
Thirty years from now young investors will criticize themselves by thinking I knew I should have bought that stock 30 years ago, I knew I never should have sold my rental. A piece of advice. If those are the worst decisions you make in your life, you got off easy.
We recently bought a duplex. Because it is partly an investment property, the rates for a 30 year mortgage were higher than what is quoted in the typical figures for SFH. Banks ultimately offered us around 3.5% for a 30 year fixed and 2.875% on a 10/1 ARM, so we went with the ARM.
We made the upgrade from condo in Hayes Valley to single family home in Noe at the lower end.
We were remodeling to sell the condo when virus hit and were scared to put it in market until couple of weeks ago. But ton of inventory hit the market same time, and media did not help (SocketSite) We had a lower listing price and got it off hands quickly without waiting due to that.
We got the SFH in early June and there were 8 offers and we overpaid, it was on an ideal block. We were only able to buy it or justify buying it due to low mortgage rates.
Overall the flipping of condo should have paid off better than tech stocks in normal circumstances but return is similar now. It was a lot of work and stress doing remodel, as it was our first time. We never thought we would sell that property but dealing with HOA and renters wasn’t gonna work for us as we originally thought.
And now we have our own backyard but need to finish basement and start on a remodeling project all over again! The SFH is smaller than our condo and payments are 50% higher :)
Would love to hear your thoughts!
Hi Sam,
Been following you for many, many years. We own our own home. During this crisis we purchased a 6 unit building (off market) and closed March 20, 2020 with no problems other than signing docs, the bank was on board and so was Title….a few logistical hoops otherwise uneventful and got the signatures electronically…We have been remodeling (with contractors) doing leasing of two units through April and another remodel in May/w showing and Lease ups…Now starting another remodel of another unit…Not sure what everyone else is doing but the sky is not falling here. people are working and want to work, no tenant issues, all paying and on-time, and just common turnover of one unit. We are just plugging along build up assets and looking to buy more and rotate out of and step up with 1031’s…We are cautious when around big groups but we always have been. Common sense here. Oh, I we stopped listening to most of the news….Its getting out of hand…Retired in early 50’s from 30 yrs in aviation…We live between Denver and Boulder, and we buy in Loveland, Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado Springs, CO. Keep up the great work! Cheers! Scott
Sam
Phoenix area is still very strong with low inventory under 500k in used homes. Houses go at list price or 1-3% below at most.
New homes in any range are still being built in great amounts and big developers like Shea are buying more land. They have brought back most of their sales force even though everyone is in masks. We are in the normal hottest and slowest time of the year due to heat but in real estate it is not slow.
All the trades are busy. Title and mortgage companies swamped.
You are correct: people are saying, “I am moving on somehow, someway!”
God Bless
Sam,
Great topic and timely – I’m a huge reader of yours and was at one point Leary of this market. Last year I negotiated my severance out of a bad work situation and am now using the partial windfall to investment in a home my wife and I negated a side deal with a seller who hadn’t marketed the home.
I think we are seeing an inversion with coastal property with lower inventory driving up prices in the highly desirable suburbs which are price immune. In the other part o the market here in NJ owners are holding out on selling so inventory is low. In the lower parts of the market where people cannot get mortgages due to income or other situation there is ample stock being bought up by investors.
I would agree with you having a place to live and buying for the next generation is key. Our daughter needs a nice home neighborhood to live and at the least with low interest rate I look at our new home as a family investment our chlldren and maybe grandchildren will own something in a nice town. After renting for 4 years, our patience has paid off!
From one toddler parent to another, Thanks for all that you do.
Best Regards,
Hey Sam,
Great content as always. The real estate market is super hot in Northern NJ, which is super annoying for us as buyers, ha!
It depends on the area ofc, but those particular ones with great school systems or favorable property tax rates are selling like hot cakes.
In the past month or so, most of the homes we visit have received multiple offers. Which means none of them are going below asking, and most of them going above.
What’s wild is that people are now OK with what the majority of people typically werent OK with before, such as being on busy main roads, being near power lines, etc.
Demand is increasing because of people leaving NYC and NJ cities for more space and COVID safety.
But we are still keeping it level-headed and only buying what’s worth our value. Don’t want to be stuck with an overpriced home.
Stay safe Sam.
Best,
AK
Sam- I feel a bit dumb now as our strategy to expand doesn’t seem so certain now. We bought a 1 bd condo in the city 2 years ago and had a kid last year. The plan was to buy a single family house this year and have our condo as a rental. However, prices in my current area are less than they were 2 years ago and lots of available units to rent.
Would it be wise to stretch our budget now and purchase another house, or to sell our current property at a loss and use whatever equity is left towards a new house? Thanks.
Nobody could have expected we’d be in this situation today, so don’t feel too bad about your strategy.
It’s tough to say. Taking on more debt now after taking a likely loss feels like unnecessary risk. Has it become untenable for 3 of you to live in the one-bedroom? That seems tough. On the bright side, it’s getting max utilization.
I’d first test out the rental market or see what comps are renting for.
I can’t really provide good guidance without knowing your full financial situation.
I don’t think stretching your budget with a newborn and a new mortgage (like a new born) is wise.
Thank you. Our place is definitely being utilized to the fullest, especially with no daycare now. It’s doable, but tough.
As far as rents, the average asking rent for a place like mine is the same amount as our monthly expense (mortgage, HOA, insurance, tax), but almost all of the listings have been sitting for weeks. At best, we’ll “break even” but since we live in the city (Santa Monica), renters are moving to cheaper areas once they assess their job situation.
We currently have about 3 years of living expenses in cash, which would be enough for a 20% down payment for the suburbs we’re looking at. Our debts are the mortgage and 15 months of car payments left, which is the equivalent of 6 weeks of cash flow.
One of the most stressful things you might experience is buying a new property with a mortgage, and waiting to sell your old property which also has a mortgage. If your finances cannot handle two mortgages concurrently for six months to a year, I wouldn’t buy first. I would sell first, negotiate a one or t One of the most stressful things you might experience is buying a new property with a mortgage, and waiting to sell your old property which also has a mortgage. If your finances cannot handle two mortgages concurrently for six months to a year, I wouldn’t buy first. I would sell first, negotiate a one or two month lease back and then hunt for your property.
It would be very inconvenient and also stressful to sell your property, have to move into temporary housing, and then buy another property. But then again, that’s better than carrying two mortgages at the same time in my opinion.
Congratulations on your little one! I know things are difficult right now. But what a blessing to have our children! And what an honor to protect and love them.
Our house is about 1.5 miles from the beach in DE in a community with about 240 lots, of which 230 are built upon. Due to the location (east of DC and south of Phila/NJ) prices aren’t cheap and this community is considered the best in the area. House prices are high in general and within the last 3 months they are flying out the door – even houses not marketed have sold. Houses that had lanquished have sold and even a lot that had been left untouched for 30 years sold.
My wife handles the updates for the HOA website and she just received the June/July ones and we were stunned. Normally 8-10 houses are for sale – as of this update there are only 2 not under contract. People are bugging out of the metro areas here on the east coast – or at least it seems that way. Some of these deals are cash. I don’t think mortgages are even a consideration given it is nearly free money and if you take inflation into account it might as well be considered such. We know a couple who came down from near NYC in late March and stayed for 3 months – and they are considering not going back even though the husband is a NYC boy thru and thru.
Great for those selling and if it holds we might even consider taking our money and running somewhere else.
We’ve been looking for a home for my daughter here in Sacramento and anything under $500k seems to be gone within 48 hours at over ask. I assume there is much more money out there than I expected despite the CV19 pressures on everyone. I also noticed numerous of these homes are previous rentals and the owners are getting out while the market is hot – that is probably saying something as well.
Sam,
Great topic and timely – I’m a huge reader of yours and was at one point Leary of this market. Last year I negotiated my severance out of a bad work situation and am now using the partial windfall to investment in a home my wife and I negated a side deal with a seller who hadn’t marketed the home.
I think we are seeing an inversion with coastal property with lower inventory driving up prices in the highly desirable suburbs which are price immune. In the other part o the market here in NJ owners are holding out on selling so inventory is low. In the lower parts of the market where people cannot get mortgages due to income or other situation there is ample stock being bought up by investors.
I would agree with you having a place to live and buying for the next generation is key. Our daughter needs a nice home neighborhood to live and at the least with low interest rate I look at our new home as a family investment our chlldren and maybe grandchildren will own something in a nice town. After renting for 4 years, our patience has paid off!
From one toddler parent to another, Thanks for all that you do.
Sam,
My Father In-Law works in a job that has been dramatically impacted over the past several months, and he has been struggling to meet his rent obligations. This has put a lot of strain on his marriage. My Mother In-law has never worked; and he is struggling to make ends meet alone while keeping their relationship intact.
After some discussions with my wife, we decided to purchase a home near us and it rent back to her parents at a small cash-on-cash loss. Providing a stable living situation they can afford is going to be a lot better for our family.
As we started researching our options, a mortgage broker informed us of the Family Opportunity Mortgage. This program allows us to purchase a 2nd home at the same rate as our primary residence for elderly parents who cannot qualify on their own. This is a powerful incentive. I’m curious now if I can purchase them a new house every year and accumulate a rental portfolio at primary residence mortgage rates.
Matt
Good to know Matt! I’ll look into this more. Glad your in-laws are getting support from you guys in this difficult time. Best of luck and fight on.
We just refinanced to a 20 year back in February at 3.29% and cashed out $25k. I of course did a no fee refinance… so we got a slightly higher rate but no closing costs. Now I’m looking to refinance again… but oddly the 20 and 30 years rates are being quoted the same 2.75% no fee rate. I was considering refinancing to a 30 year and paying it down like a 20 year. This way if we have a job loss if Covid gets worse… I have more wiggle room.
Look at Europe – there seems to be much room for mortgage rates to go down in US. 3% sounds very expensive for me and I think housing market here would collapse at that level :D
Perhaps. But productivity in Europe is much lower than America. As a result, inflation is lower… probably deflation. Further, natural unemployment rate has been about double the unemployment rate in the U.S. for over a decade.
In the U.S., you can get mortgage rates for 2.125% too that are more similar to European rates that are not fixed for 30 years.
Sam, As a fellow SF native, we followed your strategy of buying with expansion potential. We bought a home in 2016 near your Favorite GGH neighborhood and did well. Thank you!
We are now thinking about what is the next move with the equity we have in our home. We are not sure of we want to go thorough the buy and expand strategy again because of the time and work involved. We are thinking about buying in the Truckee Tahoe area. We think we may break even or be slightly negative if we rent it out enough. We also have two kids so we would have good personal use.
Given the current WFH environment, Tahoe seems an area that will have increasing demand with low inventory as people embrace the new WFH way of life. I know you own a home in Squaw Valley. What are you your thoughts on purchasing a vacation home in Truckee / Tahoe from a price appreciation perspective? My agent tells us things are going nuts there.
I don’t think Sam likes talking about his Squaw Valley vacation home from an investment perspective :)
As for your question regarding price appreciation, I actually purchased a place in Soda Springs (right next to Truckee) right when shelter in place began. I got it right at beginning of April and since then, demand has indeed gone up a lot. So likewise – price appreciation. But from utilization perspective, I’ll continue using it only as vacation home. I had some thoughts about using it more like for a week since I can work from anywhere now. But it’s still not as convenient as working from my bigger house in the Bay Area. Unless you go all in and get a bigger place in Tahoe versus here in Bay Area, you’ll still be working mainly at Bay Area.
Not sure why you included a smiley face. It’s really hard for me to respond to hundreds of comments.
Then buying a vacation property is good for lifestyle first. I’m an investment perspective, there are way better ways to make money.
You mentioned in some previous comments that you recently bought a lake Tahoe property, but now you’re filing for unemployment. What happened?
Same situation here. I am in Tech in NYC. Our company moved our office furniture into storage, ended the lease, WFH till end of 2020 and no office on the horizon. Thinking about pulling the trigger in suburbs for more space. At the same time lots of conflicting data, yes you can move to the suburbs and chances are you wont loose long-term with low interest rates and “migration” out of the city, but what happens in 2 years when the pandemic hopefully ends and all the Manhattan and Brooklyn prices kept falling with renters fleeing. Stuck undecided to wait and buy in the city(future appreciation) or get the yard with a pool.
What was the cost to end the lease?
Could be great for landlords who get a payment and have free space to re-rent or reuse.
Company got lucky, the lease ended and we were on month to month in negotiations.
What’s the future appreciation of the city look like? This does feel a bit different for NYC…
I am excited by the incredibly low mortgage rates right now. It makes levering up and buying a primary home or investment property a very good proposition in my mind.
I believe the coupling of the historically low mortgage rate with price declines due to the pandemic makes it a great time to buy property for those that can afford it.
I am still a buyer of NYC real estate even given the recent exodus out of the city.
Great, great post and comments. My son sent this link to me. I have a great colonial house inside the DC Beltway in Virginia — Langley / McLean for sale by me (owner). Check Craigslist. Available on August 10th. Corner house in Langley Oaks off Georgetown Pike. Top school district (Langley). Near CIA. Home offices. Original owner. $1.25. Below market.
This makes me wonder if now is the time to consider an upgrade. Spoiled by our current 2.75% 10 year loan with six years remaining. Want to upgrade and take on one more large mortgage (probably 15 year).
At 3%, you’re almost talking free money when considering inflation and mortgage interest deduction impact. I just refi’d (3%, zero closing costs) the DC row house I’ve now lived in for 2 yrs and likely will never make another over-payment to principal. Not only are we freeing up ~$300/mo to go straight to the market or other RE investment properties, but at current rental rates, we could cash flow ~$800/mo after expenses if necessary. I’m not sure how anyone would justify paying down a mortgage early anymore.
We’re buying. 1.5M in a VHCOL area. “Cheapest” best house in the best area that made sense for our commutes and schools. Been saving for 6 years waiting for a dip that never came and now have kids (plural) coming soon and need more space. Locked a 2.875% 30 year with 3/4 point.
Thinking about keeping our current home as a rental but not really excited about being a Covid landlord. We have great equity but I’d like to be diversified out of just stocks. Making decisions one day at a time and putting off what to do with our current residence for today…
Wife and I are big tech employees in the Bay Area and couldn’t relate to this article more.
Inspired by Sam’s numerous articles on taking profits from the stock market and deploying it in real estate, in late May we decided to take some stock market gain and buy a investment property in north Austin. It’s a new build property that’s currently being built and will be ready by Jan/Feb. We got lucky as the real estate market sentiment (particularly among new builders) was a bit bearish in light of Covid during the May time frame. This helped us lock in a good price in May, with a ~$7k earnest deposit, for a brand new single family investment property with 12k sq ft. lot. To negotiate a better pricing with the builder, I also brought in two additional friends (both in tech) to buy in the same community. We bought three properties and hence were able to negotiate 3% price reduction on each home. All three homes will be ready by Jan/Feb 2021.
Soon after we locked our price in late May, the June sales results for the builder came in much stronger than anticipated, and since then they bumped the home prices by nearly 1.5%, and have sold 75% of the houses in the community.
I pulled the trigger in May to (1) take some profit off my stock portfolio, and (2) based on my hypothesis that real estate price will hold strong (particularly median priced real estate) despite COVID due to gov stimulus, outflux from cities/apartments to burbs/single family and low inventory. So far the hypothesis seems to have been true, hopefully the gov injects more stimulus as a bridge to vaccine commercialization.
Congratulations. I have owned investment property in Austin for 15 years. Would be happy to join you in this deal if it would help. Let me know and good luck.
If there is a proven vaccine by end of 2020, we are going to see the mother of all rebounds, even after already rebounding so much in the stock market.
Let’s see! And if not, I’m hopeful the billions of dollars in profits will spur the 20+ vaccine creators to hurry the heck up!
Hello Sam,
While i have rented for many many years (10 +on a visa without a GC) , I’d like to purchase now. I regret all the money i ‘put on.wasted’ rent. I’m still on a visa , but with a growing family and just restlessness of being in a rental I’d like to purchase. Really don’t know when I’ll get my GC (might be 3-5 years)
My question is – Since the market in Phoenix is red red hot (I’ve put 3 offers 10-15K over the asking price but no deal!) should i wait until September/October when things calm down. Lots of Calif. and Seattle homeowners paying cash , also a low inventory is causing this perfect storm for the few sellers in the market. Everything is super competitive and prices just going up. Do you think there might be a better situation for buyers later this year?
Do you also think mortgage rates will stay the same (I can get a 2.75 % with a broker now – with some PMI at 10/15 % down)
I live in the Midwest (suburb of a large Metropolitan area) and market demand is strong where I live. Multiple offers on any quality home between $500-$950k. For my particular area, there is to much money chasing the same part of the market. People paying $500-$700k often for lots with construction build costs of $1-$1.3M. I only see softness occurring in the $1.3M+ part of the market, but a “correction” of only 5-10% max for that segment in the coming year.
I refinanced this week. Originally had a 4.0% 30 year rate from March 2017. Refinanced to a 2.25% (no points) 15 year rate mortgage. My goal has always been to pay off the house sooner than later. It was a no brainer at those rates. 2.25%!
Thanks fo the color. Yeah, it seems like homes around the 40% – 50% higher than median price mark are generally weaker, which means there’s more opportunity to get a better price. For those moving up the price curve and who want to upgrade, there’s more value.
2.25% with no points for a 15-year rate mortgage is great! Congrats!
We are actively hunting in the DC/Northern Virginia area inside the beltway on the Virginia side. The market is incredibly dried up and competitive. Homes are listing for about 8% over what they would have been listed at 6 months ago. Additionally, their selling price is about another 8% over asking price and are waving nearly all contingencies including inspection, closing within 25 days, and having earnest money deposits of nearly 10% or more. The average home is staying on the market about 5 days.
My guess is there’s about 100 sq miles inside the beltway in Virginia and currently there is less than a dozen single family homes on the market under $600,000.
So, while rates are low and we’re actively seeking, we’ll end up paying at least 10% more for a home compared to 6 months ago which will mean the total cost of the loan will be roughly the same.
Yeah, “starter homes” are on fire now. It is interesting given you would think at the lower price point, prospective buyers might be most worried about income given the lack of multiple sources of income and investments that have come back in the stock market.
I wonder what’s going on. Perhaps low rates are making the biggest difference, since if you are wealthier, you can pay more in cash.
I’m looking at the same area, with a budget of 1.3mn, still finding nothing!
Where is the price point where you do see more inventory and bargains? That’s the price point where you need to look. But then, affordability is an issue too.
1.6mn+ you can find bargains. It is about 40-50% of medium price.
OK so consistent with my belief on the 40% – 50% above median price for bargains.
In other words, wealthier homebuyers looking to move up are going to benefit more.
The hunt continues…
I was looking in the same area the other day, and while I agree the market is currently stacked at least in the sub $1M price point. I was shocked to see so many foreclosures and pre-foreclosues available. There are plenty of options out there if you are willing to move a bit further to the edge of the beltway.
I think $600k is light in this area for a house… that’s more likely going to get you a decent town house. You probably need to bump up to the $750k or so range to really see the options that are there. If you can swing $1M there are even more available, and coming soon.
My friends are also working on buying a house now, and unfortunately have gone 0-3 in the last weeks. Just last week they lost a house which had 9 buyers including multiple all cash and no contingencies as you noted. Tough luck for them, but at least they are able to chase $800k+ homes.. so that’s something.
Good luck in your search.
I am actively hunting for a trade up on my primary residence. At the same time, I’m keeping my powder dry with a solid cash reserve to pick up 1 or 2 more rentals in late 2021 early 2022. Anticipating a cooling of the market then, and an influx of foreclosure in the starter/entry level homes. I do not anticipate major movement on interest rates and so the tenant occupied homes can wait. I’m ready to do what I should’ve done 3-4 years ago, taken some money and enjoyed myself with lifestyle bump and some acreage.
Seems like a good plan. If the gov’t stimulus money doesn’t continue until we get a vaccine, surely there will be an uptick in foreclosures. However, I remember back in 2008-2009, I was looking to and realized so were lots of other people.
There wasn’t much value to be had in SF, but surrounding areas 45 – 60 minutes away. Then, I told myself I didn’t want to bother going all the way out there to manage / own the property when there was so much work to do.
I’ve struggled with the same thing. Managing properties beyond my current radius. For me, my three rentals are all fairly close. I turned my “problem child” rental over to property management two years ago and haven’t looked back. I’ll transition the other two to PM when the leases come due. Have you considered PM to oversee potential investment property?
We are about to close on a house in a couple weeks. We chose a 30-yr mortgage and the rate really is mind-boggling. Unfortunately, prices have also skyrocketed in our area due to the fact that there’s extremely limited supply. My dad sent us this link after hearing our house-hunting stories week after week, and it’s pretty much our exact experience: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/07/01/home-prices-good-luck-finding-affordable-house-during-covid/3267097001/
Standing in a (socially distanced, mask-wearing) line that stretched down the block just to try to get into an open house at one of the few houses on the market in our price range is a memory I won’t soon forget.
My husband started a new job and our new location will be a much better commute, so we went ahead and pulled the trigger. The trade-off was buying a house that needs a lot of updates. Any house that was updated has been selling for $30-50k higher than what it’d appraise for, because competition for houses skyrocketed so suddenly during limited supply. (We are in the Charlotte area where that’s a huge jump in a 30-day span.)
In the end, I feel like we are breaking even between the low mortgage rate and the sky high price or significant updates that come along with buying a house in our area right now.
“Standing in a (socially distanced, mask-wearing) line that stretched down the block just to try to get into an open house at one of the few houses on the market in our price range is a memory I won’t soon forget.”
Wow… that is so different from here in San Francisco. In SF, there are no lines b/c all showings are private showings by appointment only. Then these appointments are spaced 30 – 60 minutes apart so the listing agent can wipe everything down and get air circling into the house.
Basically, open house traffic has been throttled down by 90% I think. Only motivated, qualified buyers who’ve been preapproved can get in. Gotta sign a COVID-19 liability doc too. LOTS of friction now… which I believe if it goes away, the housing market demand will spike higher, at least here in SF.
That’s definitely more different than here in Charlotte. Open houses are still allowed, but prospective buyers aren’t allowed to walk through the house at the same time – thus the line, with the real estate agent acting like a bouncer :) Private showings are also scheduled back-to-back without wipe-downs, etc., and we often walked out the front door as other sellers passed us on the way in. Certainly no waiver to sign! I think the only exceptions were individual home owners who imposed criteria – for example, a homeowner who was clearly older, or perhaps medically fragile.
Pandemic buyer here and for most of the reasons you pointed out. I closed last month and already am already refinancing. Very happy so far going from studio to house living.
I’m a buyer right now. I pay cash, rehab a house, rent it out and refinance 6 months later. I just closed on a 15 yr 3.25% loan on a rental. The loan is for 48k and based off a 64k appraisal. I have 32k all in on the house. I have another property that I will do a refi on next month. I plan to buy at least 2 more houses this year. I got my last loan while being laid off. I work seasonally and have a long history of this and i have a return to work date so the bank was able to finance me. I also have plenty of reserves.
I tried calling about a refinance but was told it wouldn’t be in my best interest because it’s only for Fannie Mae loans which would place a PMI insurance on my loan. Right now I owe $104k and I am paying it off an extra $3000 per month. It will be paid off in approx 3 years. I currently do not have PMI on the loan and the loan is at 4.88%. Not really sure if it would be worth it for me…what do you think???
Thanks
If you refinance, there is a cost associated with it. If you can recoupe that cost within a year by switching to the new loan. Then do it.
With the extra $3000 you’re adding in each month you’ll have the house paid off within 3 years. If you go to refinance, you’ll pay closing fees and it just doesn’t make sense even if you start paying 1.5% less. 1.5% on 100k is $1500. So over 3 years you’d probably save about $3000 in interest by refinancing. If closing fees are that or higher, it’s not worth it.
4.88% is a very high rate now. Calculate the cost to refinance and run the numbers.
But with only $104K left… I probably would just up your extra principal pay down, depending on your cash flow.
Earning a 4.88% return in this market is great!
If rates are lower and you are able to qualify for a refi there is ZERO reason not to refinance. Just do a refi with a slightly higher rate with a lender credit to cover closing costs. I have refi’ed twice so far this year in the bay area. First refi was 3.375 for a 30 year with 4k lender credit in march, closed yesterday on a refi 3.125 with a $4,300 lender credit. If rates continue to drop I will just refi again as I have paid nothing out of pocket. I actually came out 800 dollars ahead on my first refi. Both times I have been quoted a difference of .125 higher for lender credit toward closing costs.
Twice already? Wow, good for u.
The cost is the cost and time and amount.
A $100K mortgage is not a lot for a median household income. But there will be a cost to refi.
If there is a no-cost refi and rate is lower, then I agree. Might as well do it.
totally agree that a refi costs you time, but with working from home it’s so much easier to get it done quickly (appraisals, notary etc. ) with minimal hassle. If I can save $100 bucks a month and pay off my mortgage sooner by paying the exact same payment I always have it makes a ton of sense to do it.
Sure. Just don’t know any lender who will refinance a $100K mortgage for free. It’s too small of a mortgage, and not worth it unless u go from a 5% rate down to a 2% rate and can refinance for less than $1,200.
Could happen!
Well this is a validating post to read!
I am a tech employee, sick and tired of being overly frugal, and decided to move on a dream home purchase when my ‘debt bank’ quoted me 2.75% fixed money on said purchase. I did have to move some cash over from another bank to secure this rate. I closed last month. I just listed my prior home for sale and expect to clear a tidy amount and divest of the comparatively expensive mortgage (fixed at 3.65%).
Sam – I must have read your posts about ‘taking profit to pay for a better life’ at least a dozen times as I tried to talk myself into this new purchase.
Thank you.
My lifestyle has upsized dramatically, my employer has since extended WFH to 2021, and it feels amazing to walk my gorgeous acreage with morning coffee and consider what this place can become for me in the next fifty years. This feels like one of the best decisions that I have ever made and you played a non-trivial part. The fact that my 30-year fixed mortgage is now officially FS-approved is just icing on the cake;)
Congrats! It feels GREAT to live in a nicer, larger home that potentially will go up in value over time. The utility real estate provides is the#1 reason why real estate is one of my favorite asset classes to build wealth.
Enjoy!
I was just speaking to a coworker today who because we are all remote, sold her house in the Washington DC area and moved to Western Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile my 5/1 ARM @3.0% adjusts in February and I am hoping that it could actually go down, since the LIBOR rate was 0.5 the other day, And it would adjust to 2.25 plus the LIBOR rate. When I talk to banks about refinancing, they say that 5/1 arms are not offered anymore. Also all of them are barking at a no closing cost refinance and it is taking too much time for me to call them.
Your ARM should adjust down, so you don’t have to do anything. If it doesn’t for some reason, then you can consider refinancing.
ARMs have been adjusting down for 30+ years now…. to the dismay of 30-year fixed rate mortgage holders. So banks have been making more money off the homeowner than they should have.
I’m in a similar situation on a 7/1 ARM that will adjust next year. I read the LIBOR is going away starting in 2022 and will be replaced by something called the SOFR? I also read (taken with a grain of salt) that there may be controversy over how existing ARMs are modified to use the SOFR instead of LIBOR. I’m sure there are pros and cons to this transition, but my gut is to ride it out and see what happens. Sam, might be a great future piece since you have been an ARM advocate for a long time!
Cool, will check it out.
LIBOR and the Fed Funds rate is tightly correlated. So your ARM should adjust flat to down, depending on your margin.
I am refinancing in Georgia and adding a master suite with a bed and bath. Nervous about borrowing more money but it will complete our house to 4 bed/3.5 baths in a great neighborhood near local country club – we will be here a long time. Every time I am nervous I am reminded of one of your earlier articles on the value of adding on. Thanks for sharing your wisdom.
Yes, expansion is the #1 way to make money in real estate. Build for $200/sqft, sell for $400/sqft all day long if you can.
https://www.financialsamurai.com/how-to-make-lots-of-money-in-real-estate/
My wife and I (both 29 years of age) just closed on our first house at the end of May and I can’t help but feel lucky that we hit a perfect storm of variables working in our favor while the world was in mass panic. We stayed ready, saved, waited for the right opportunity, and took advantage at the right time. We are lucky to have progressed well in our careers and be valued members of companies that transitioned to remote work well. I am so grateful for that stability right now.
Low interest rates were just another plus in our perfect storm. The COVID hysteria at the end of March combined with motivated sellers who had to move for a new job opportunity resulted in a good deal for us!
When we first saw our new home on MLS after a few months of searching for good deals, we knew it could be the one. Only a few interested buyers were allowed to see it in the end of March due to the sellers wanting to minimize contact (multiple small children). We were able to win with an offer ~5% below the list price, which I considered a surprise as I had expected the house to have multiple offers ~5-10% above asking!
The home has a brand new pool with a spa for us to enjoy quarantine and work from home like we had only dreamed of!
After living in a 1-bed apartment in a California coastal city for 7 years (rent control was lovely), we upgraded and couldn’t be happier. We had saved ~50% of our post-tax income over the years and were finally ready to put 20% down and maintain a comfortable cushion so we can keep the wins coming.
Reading Financial Samurai for the past several years has set us up for success in our jobs and during our recent real estate search. Thanks Sam!
Congrats! There’s something people don’t tell you when you get the keys to your first home. An indescribable feeling of JOY that is hard to quantify!
I’m buying now. I recently got richer due to a successful 1031 exchange I did in early 2020 that allowed me to create more cash flow by accessing $200,000+ in equity previously locked up in a house I bought in 2016. I currently own 7 units, all in DC. Now, I have $50K left that I can put into one last condo. Will I be offering less than asking? Yes. Is there much inventory right now? No. Will I pay full price if they don’t budge, probably. The inventory is still very very low in DC, and I do hope that this will change, but in the meantime I have $50K burning a hole in my bank account and I want to put it to work. I’m not waiting for the new trends in real estate (i.e. future foreclosures that may never really come, or the pending glut of units because up til this point owners have been afraid to list). Though I hope the new trends are advantageous to buyers, as I am set to buy another owner-occupied in January 2021. I may buy sooner if I decide to sell my current OO based on offer prices I receive later this July. The market here is crazy, so until you put it on the market and see for yourself, it’s not easy to predict the prices you’ll receive.
Sam,
I hope all is well with you and the family! In this current market do you really think a lot of those w/unemployment will actually let their house be foreclosed on? I’m sure some will happen, but given most markets (especially the coasts) I would think more will start selling at market rates before foreclosure? Especially in the hot market areas. That’s why I’m sitting back and watching and ready to pounce w/an all cash offer. It will be interesting! Some deals will be available, but a lot of overpaying too.
Thanks
Big Sarge
I also forgot to add that w/the current market there will be zero short sales as well. Banks won’t be accepting them. I bought 3 houses like that during last housing crash.
Yeah, hard to buy a foreclosure or short sale when the government/banks aren’t allowing them now. But at the margin, they will come once the economy opens up. There’s always a lag, a window, when investors can pounce.
I posted recently on your net worth article that I am in my mid-30s and in the top 1% for both income and NW…barely…
Living in the New York City area I really want to buy, but I’m worried about the future prospects of the city. The crippling debt, demographic weakness, and folks leaving because they can work from home gives me pause. Perhaps, I am Just overthinking This and being crazy that I would have a losing investment over the next decade. I just don’t know who the marginal buyers are in the city. Who would put up with the COLA, taxes and weather if you don’t have to be at an office daily?
I like the samurai mask on the logo. Nice touch.
Any lenders your recommend for jumbo loans? For those of us in SF. I’ve found that so far these rates don’t apply to jumbo loans. Thanks!
I keep thinking foreclosure deals are on the horizon so why buy now? Am I wrong?
I don’t think you’re wrong. More will inevitably come, especially if the government doesn’t keep pumping stimulus.
But some segments of the market are strong. And the data is showing strength so far.
Will be interesting to see how small apartment owners do in places like Portland where evictions are banned. If the owners don’t have months of payments in cash they could be hurting. Maybe foreclosures there – but who would buy?
I’ll tell you what, I am a grumpy small time landlord in Portland area. Not a fan of constantly getting unfavorable news from local leaders. I’m under contract selling a 4 plex and intend to 1031 it into a nice home in our area. Interestingly, it sure seems like we are getting top dollar for the 4 plex, but feels like the nicer home market is softening.