Build A CD Step Stool, Not A CD Ladder In A Flattening Yield Curve Environment

When you’re young, you spend time accumulating wealth. When you’re old, you should spend time protecting wealth. Building a CD step stool to protect a portion of your wealth is a smart way to go.

Multi-millionaires go broke all the time because they exposed themselves to too much risk and temptation. Think about all those pro athletes who would still be rich if they had just kept all their money in a bank.

You just never know what type of risk is lurking out there. Nobody would have guessed a coronavirus pandemic would have shutdown the world economy for over three months in 2020.

History OF CD Rates

From 2010 through 2021, money market and CD rates were particularly horrible. Retirees depending on fixed income were forced to take more risk. Thankfully, such risk paid off when the S&P 500 and the real estate market across various parts of the country took off.

Further, many of us were able to refinance our mortgages at all-time low interest rates. Credible is my favorite lending marketplace if you’re looking to check rates. They get pre-qualified lenders to compete for your business for free in under three minutes.

Then in 2022, inflation figures were high, the Federal Reserve finally started raising rates, and we saw an upward trend in the 10-year bond yield. As a result, we also started seeing significantly better CD and high-yield savings rates at direct, online-only banks like CIT Bank.

Where the markets and rates will be in 6-months, 1 year, or 5 years, however, is anybody’s guess. Let’s say we see a flattening yield curve again. What’s the best course of action? Financially savvy individuals should optimize their cash and build a CD Step Stool and NOT a CD ladder. The first step is a one-year CD and the second step is a two-year CD at most.

With each expiration of the CD, the strategy is to re-invest the proceeds in another 12 – 24 month CD. Only if the yield curve steepens should you consider building a CD ladder where you’re investing in three, four, five, seven, and 10 year CDs.

Let’s look at various financial scenarios where building a CD Step Stool may or may not make sense. 

Building A CD Step Stool

If you are up over 200% on the S&P 500 since 2010 and your real estate equity is up even more due to leverage, your net worth has likely way more than doubled since 2010 when you add savings to the mix. Therefore, at some point, you should start thinking about taking risk off the table when risk-free returns are rising.

With A CD Step Stool, you get the best bang for your CD buck, while never putting yourself in real danger of a liquidity crunch since you’re never more than 12 months away from accessing your cash. Further, you can always utilize the monthly CD interest payment or break your short-term CD if things get really bad by giving up usually half the CD duration’s worth of interest.

Example #1: Financially Independent Couple In Their 60s

Liquid Net Worth In 2010: $3,000,000

Liquid Net Worth In 2022: $10,000,000

Household Gross Income: $50,000 from part-time consulting and social security

Household Expense: $200,000

Potential Risk-Free Gross Income: $250,000 based off a 2.5% on their $10,000,000

Total Household Gross Income: $300,000

Total Household Net Income (25% effective tax rate): $225,000

Net Worth Analysis

Why would this 60-year old couple risk the majority of their liquid net worth in risk assets that could easily result in a capital loss? Instead, they would probably best be served to invest 90% of their liquid net worth in a risk-free CD yielding 2.5% and speculate on the remaining 10%.

The remaining 10% is still $1,000,000, which could conceivably earn or lose them hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. But even if they lose 100% of this $1,000,000, they’d still be earning $225,000 a year in risk-free gross income to support their lifestyle.

They could either invest a lump sum into a 12-month CD today, or they could create a CD Step Stool since the Fed has telegraphed they will raise rates further. Given money market rates are pretty attractive again, it’s probably a good idea to do a combination of both a short-term CD and a money market account.

Point: There is no need to take excessive risk after a tripling of net worth to $10 million. Since they have already won the lottery, it’s good to stop gambling and start enjoying life to the maximum.

Example #2: On The Path To Financial Independence, Couple In Their 40s

Liquid Net Worth In 2010: $500,000

Liquid Net Worth In 2022: $2,000,000

Household Gross Income: $180,000

Household Expense: $100,000

Potential Risk-Free Gross Income: $50,000 based of 2.5% of $2,000,000

Total Household Gross Income: $230,000

Total Household Net Income (20% effective tax rate): $184,000

Net Worth Analysis

Thanks to aggressive saving, pay raises, rental real estate appreciation, and great stock performance, this couple was able to 4X their liquid net worth. They could conceivably dump their entire $2,000,000 liquid net worth into a 2.5% yielding 12-month CD to earn $50,000. However, that would leave a ~$60,000 expense hole after paying a 20% tax rate on the CD income.

But what is important to realize is that this couple has now closed the income gap they need to achieve true financial freedom – when passive income covers all expenses. In order for the couple to achieve financial freedom, the interest rate on their risk-free income needs to be closer to 6.2% so they can earn $125,000 in gross income to pay for their $100,000 lifestyle using a 20% effective tax rate.

Alternatively, they need to accumulate closer to a $5,000,000 in liquid net worth, which may be harder to do over the next twelve years than it was the previous twelve years. Good thing interest rates are expected to go a little higher, and $5,000,000 is probably unnecessary.

Taking Action To Build More Wealth

The solution is to keep on working in order to make their $180,000 gross annual income and take more risk, but not a whole lot of risk. We know that since 1926, a portfolio of 20% stocks / 80% bonds has provided a 7.2% annual rate of return.

But given we are in a rising interest rate environment, it’s unlikely that bonds will perform as well as they have. Therefore, the solution is to supplement some of the 80% of bond exposure with risk-free CD income exposure through a CD Step Stool.

The couple can see the finish line and don’t want to mess things up. With 40% of their household expenses covered ($40,000) through a risk-free short-term CD after-tax, this couple now has more flexibility in their lifestyles.

For example, one spouse now has the option to negotiate a severance to take care of their child full-time now instead of spending $25,000 on daycare. Or, one spouse can decide to start a business.

Point: On the road to financial freedom, identify which expenses your risk-free income can cover to make your life better. If you do so, you will be more motivated to build an ever-increasing passive income portfolio.

Example #3: Far From Financial Independence, 31-year-old Couple

Liquid Net Worth In 2010: $5,000

Liquid Net Worth In 2022: $300,000

Household Gross Income: $70,000

Household Expense: $50,000

Potential Risk-Free Gross Income: $7,500 based on 2.5% of $300,000

Total Household Gross Income: $77,500

Total Household Net Income (15% effective tax rate): $65,875

Despite a 60X increase in liquid net worth since 2010, this 31-year old couple is still not close to financial independence because their liquid net worth can generate only $7,500 a year in risk-free income with a 2.5% yielding CD.

Note, be sure to check out one of my most popular articles on the above average net worth for the above average person.

Action Steps To Take

As a result, the only solutions for this couple are to: 1) make more money, 2) reduce expenses, or 3) take on more risk. Based on history, a 70% equity allocation or higher provides for a 9.1% annual return or higher since 1926. But of course, history cannot predict the future.

With a $300,000 liquid net worth and decades of work energy left in this couple, building a CD Step Stool doesn’t make much sense. Instead, they should keep roughly six months of household expenses in a high-yielding money market account. But for the remaining $275,000 in liquid net worth, I have no problem with them investing 70% or more of their portfolio in equities. They’ve got time, energy, and the income to recover any losses.

Here’s a risk tolerance barometer to consider. If your annual household net income is not greater than your potential portfolio loss in any given year, you are probably too aggressive in your risk exposure. For this couple, their portfolio loss limit is therefore around 24%.

Point: Without a substantial liquid net worth, investing in risk-free assets beyond your emergency fund doesn’t make sense. Take on more risk and focus on increasing your earnings and your savings.

Time To Optimize Your Cash

Regardless of your financial situation, everybody should take steps right now to optimize their cash balance in either short-term CDs or money market accounts where there is no holding period.

Short-term treasuries are another investment option. They may pay a lower yield for the same duration depending on rates, but you can avoid state income tax. Therefore, if you are a high-income earner and/or have high state income tax, a short-term treasury bond may have a higher net yield.

It was OK to let your cash sit idle earning 0.1% from 2010 – 2016, but not now. Now you can build a 12-month CD or bond step stool in six-month increments and be competitive with inflation. It’s up to you to decide how much liquid cash you feel comfortable having in a high yielding savings account. I personally keep between 2% – 5% of my net worth in cash.

If the yield curve inverts, you should shift a greater percentage of your investable assets into risk-free investments. At this juncture, your goal is to aggressively protect your wealth. Earning 2.5% – 3% guaranteed when the stock market goes down 20% feels just as good if not better than earning 23% when everybody else is only up 3%.

Achieve Financial Freedom With A CD Step Stool

Your ultimate goal is to accumulate enough wealth to live off of your risk-free income and never touch principal. For example, if you can invest only 40% of your investable assets in risk-free investments and live on that income, more power to you. You’re free to take all the risk you want with the remaining 60%.

Alternatively, you can look to accumulate wealth up to the estate tax limit and invest 100% of it in risk-free investments. Given the estate tax limit currently is $11 million per person, we’re talking about earning $275,000 in risk-free gross income at today’s rates.

I’m sure most people can live comfortably off of $275,000 a year without any debt. Further, there’s no point accumulating more if the government is just going to take 40% away from you when you die.

Yes, our economy will come to a grinding halt when enough people stop investing and start aggressively saving. But oh well. We’re already ahead of the curve at Financial Samurai. Here’s to higher rates and risk-free living in the future!

Check out CIT Bank’s Savings Connect account if you’re looking for a low-risk way to earn income.

Also, check out my best passive income rankings for higher yields.

Build More Income And Wealth Through Real Estate

A CD step stool is a smart way to build income in a flat yield curve environment. However, in a low interest rate and steepening yield curve environment, you may way to reach for yield. The best way to do so is with real estate. When interest rates are down, the value of cash flow is up. Further, the pandemic made working from home commonplace.

Take a look at my two favorite real estate crowdfunding platforms. I have personally invested $810,000 in real estate crowdfunding to diversify, earn income passively, and make greater returns.

Fundrise: A way for accredited and non-accredited investors to diversify into real estate through private eFunds.

Fundrise has been around since 2012 and has consistently generated steady returns, no matter what the stock market is doing. For most people, investing in a diversified eREIT is the way to go. 

CrowdStreet: A way for accredited investors to invest in individual real estate opportunities mostly in 18-hour cities.

18-hour cities are secondary cities with lower valuations, higher rental yields, and potentially higher growth due to job growth and demographic trends. If you have a lot more capital, you can build you own diversified real estate portfolio. 

Related post: How Much Savings Should I Have Accumulated By Age?

For more nuanced personal finance content, join 50,000+ others and sign up for the free Financial Samurai newsletter. Financial Samurai is one of the largest independently-owned personal finance sites that started in 2009. I help people get rich and live the lifestyles they want.