The Fundrise venture capital product, VCX, listed on the NYSE on Thursday, March 19, 2026, to remarkable success. It had a NAV of about $19 a share, opened at around $31, briefly rocketed to $125, then closed the day at $76. That is roughly a 300% premium to NAV and far beyond what I thought it would trade at. The shares continue to be higher for now.
I had estimated a 30% chance it could trade at a 50%+ premium to NAV, a 50% chance it would trade at a 10% discount to 10% premium to NAV, and a 20% chance of a 20% discount. With the war in Iran, higher oil prices, a declining S&P 500, and the Robinhood Venture Fund I (RVI) trading poorly its first week of listing, my expectations were tempered.
So I thought it would be worth discussing why VCX performed far beyond my expectations, and I suspect beyond most investors' expectations as well.
As a reminder, Fundrise is a long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai and I am personally invested in Fundrise products. I’ve been writing about Fundrise’s venture capital product since it began in late 2022, and Fundrise real estate since 2015. Please do your own due diligence and invest only with money you can afford to lose.
Stay Humble, Please
Before we get into the reasons behind VCX's strength, it is worth saying clearly: stay humble.
There is a six-month lockup on restricted shares, meaning most investors cannot sell until late-September. It is extremely easy to look at your restricted share balance on Computershare and start celebrating. You might even decide to go buy things you do not need before you can actually sell. Please do not.
Personally, I caught myself daydreaming of buying a new car to replace my almost 11-year-old one. But then I reminded myself I had just spent ~$1,700 fixing it and another $1,080 on two new rear tires. So I shelved the idea.
Don't Spend Before You Have Liquidity
The only money you should consider spending are profits from any unrestricted shares you purchased right before the listing. So if you bought $10,000 worth at $19 and sold everything at $100 a share, then yes, you can spend that $42,000 in profit, minus your effective short-term capital gains tax rate, which could run as high as 40% when you include state taxes.
As a San Francisco resident since 2001, I have watched startup friends and acquaintances exercise stock options at peak prices and hold the shares, expecting them to climb further.
When the stock collapsed, the paper gain that triggered their tax bill had evaporated, but the IRS still wanted its money. Some ended up owing more to the government than their shares were worth. They did not profit from the IPO. They paid for it.
Best Not To Tell Anyone About Your Gains In Real Life
Finally, do not brag about your VCX returns to anyone in the real world. Practice stealth wealth for greater health, peace, and happiness.
Despite Financial Samurai being around since 2009, only a tiny minority of the population read this site or any other personal finance publication that discusses venture capital. With the S&P 500 declining YTD, inflation picking back up, and layoffs increasing, nobody wants to hear how you made a solid investment they are only now learning exists.
Nothing good comes from sharing outsized returns. People will be upset you did not give them a heads up. Some will be envious. Others will pester you with their own investment ideas. Keep it to yourself.
Instead, consider doing something completely counter to what a large windfall might tempt you toward. Get on your hands and knees and scrub every toilet in your house. It is hard to feel like a genius with a toilet brush in your hand, and that is exactly the point.
Why Fundrise VCX Outperformed Expectations
Here are the main reasons I can identify.
The Direct Listing Created Organic, Stickier Demand
Fundrise rewarded some long-time investors in the venture product by giving them the ability to purchase up to $10,000 worth of unrestricted shares, roughly 526 shares, before the listing. As long-time investors, we are far more inclined to hold and far less inclined to flip compared to the typical IPO retail or institutional investor who is brand new to the name. That said, selling some shares at this kind of premium is also entirely warranted.
I am not sure what the median VCX balance was pre-listing. However, for those who were able to buy up to $10,000 worth of shares, I suspect it amounted to far less than 50% of an investors total holdings, which may have further reduced the urgency to sell immediately.
The other option was to do a traditional Initial Public Offering, bringing in new retail investors and institutional investors who may not know the product as well, and who may be more inclined to flip
The Fear and Enthusiasm Around AI Is Greater Than Most People Realize
Since early 2022, I have been making the case on Financial Samurai that my number one way to hedge against AI disrupting my children's future is to invest in the very private AI companies that could displace millions of jobs. That is why I started investing in public tech companies with AI exposure, and then began adding to VCX in 2023.
But I live in San Francisco, where tech and AI is all we've been talking about for years. Lots of readers have said I live in a bubble, which is true. I endeavor to gain as many different perspectives as possible from readers around the country and world to make sure I'm not delusional.
However, as Anthropic began crushing large industries like SaaS with new products, the fear that Anthropic and OpenAI would wipe out more industries and eliminate millions of knowledge worker jobs only intensified. Capital naturally found its way to VCX. It is one of the best hedges because if AI succeeds in upending the labor market, VCX does well.
Fundrise Has a Long Track Record of Innovation and Trust
Fundrise was founded in 2012, originally offering access to commercial real estate investments that were once only available to ultra high net worth individuals and institutions. Once you have a track record spanning more than a decade, you build a meaningful level of trust with investors, especially in the alternative investment space. Listing on the New York Stock Exchange only amplifies that reputation further.
Great Timing and Investment Judgment
Fundrise launched the venture fund in late 2022, when private company valuations had fallen sharply off the cliff of 2020 and 2021 exuberance. The ability to identify demand, raise capital, and deploy at an opportune moment reflects real business and investment acumen.
In the beginning, there was significant skepticism from traditional venture capital firms, potential limited partners, and other fund managers. Ben Miller and the team nonetheless identified and invested in some of the top private growth companies in America.
In venture capital, getting access to the cap table of the best companies is sometimes harder than identifying them in the first place. By investing in names like Databricks early, Fundrise demonstrated genuine capability on both fronts.
The screenshot below links to a short video on how public venture capital came to be.
Fundrise Can Provide Tremendous Value To Private Companies
Unlike traditional venture capital firms, Fundrise comes with hundreds of thousands of investors and a large subscriber base. That means Fundrise can make an immediate impact on awareness, marketing, and client acquisition for the companies they back.
A good example is the partnership with Ramp, the corporate card company, which I discussed in a podcast episode with Ben, the CEO. By highlighting that collaboration, Fundrise helped onboard a meaningful number of new customers directly. And given Fundrise's deep roots in real estate, it can add similar value to any real estate technology companies in the portfolio.
A Large Embedded Investor Base Spread the Word
A traditional venture capital fund is capped at 250 investors by SEC rules. Fundrise had around 100,000 before listing. That is a massive difference that can help amplify awareness of VCX.
Some of those 100,000 investors include people like me, with relatively large platforms and a long track record of writing about investing and personal finance. I launched Financial Samurai in July 2009 and have published over 2,500 posts. I worked at Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse for 13 years and got my MBA from Berkeley. More than 100 million people have read this site over the years.
Once Fundrise made the surprise announcement that they were listing on the NYSE, I spent roughly 20 hours over the following month analyzing the situation and publishing four detailed posts on the topic. Here is my first one after the listing announcement, called What Fundrise's Venture Product Listing Means For Investors.
Thousands of existing and new readers worked through that analysis and made more informed decisions about the venture product as a result. And I am just one person.
Surely among 100,000 investors, there are others with platforms of their own. If every one of those 100,000 investors told just three people, that is 300,000 additional people aware of and potentially able to participate in VCX.
Management Made the Right Call by Delaying
In my post on the value of having position, I wrote that Fundrise made the right decision by delaying the listing from as early as March 9 to March 19. The week of March 9 began the Monday after the surprise bombing of Iran, with oil prices shooting past $120 over the weekend and maximum uncertainty in the markets.
Even though conditions were still turbulent by March 19, waiting until the initial shock had been absorbed likely contributed to stronger investor appetite.
With closed-end funds, management judgment matters far more to performance than it does with an index fund or open-ended mutual fund. The decision to delay may have also signaled to investors that this management team will make thoughtful calls when turbulence hits next time. That kind of trust compounds.
Good Luck Is Always A Factor
When it comes to far surpassing expectations, luck certainly plays a role. Let us be honest about that. I've argued in the past that outsized wealth is mainly due to luck. There are plenty of smart and hardworking people. But not every one of them is successful at their craft or wealthy
Initially, when the Department of War terminated Anthropic's contract on a Friday night, March 6, it felt worrisome. It was a $200 million contract that could have led to hundreds of millions more. But as I wrote in my newsletter at the time, bad press often generates far more awareness than expected.
What followed was remarkable. Anthropic became the number one downloaded app for about 10 days straight. People who had never heard of Claude, Anthropic's product, suddenly discovered it. People who were uncomfortable with potentially being tracked or opposed to the current administration signed up in large numbers.
Anthropic's revenue run rate took a multibillion-dollar jump almost overnight. And because Anthropic is the number one position in VCX, VCX benefited enormously. How lucky is that? We're not talking about a 5% weighting, but a ~20% weighting.
Then An Unfortunate War Broke Out
Meanwhile, OpenAI continued to grow as well. If having the two leading AI companies during the biggest news cycle of the year was not enough, VCX also owned Anduril as a top five holding.
Anduril makes AI-powered defensive drones and equipment for combat. After Anduril won a contract worth up to $20 billion and raised a new funding round at a $60 billion valuation, it may be the most important defense company to own right now. Look no further than what the drone company, Swarmer (SWMR), did after it went public.
If I could pick five mid-to-late-stage private companies to anchor my top holdings, I am not sure I could construct anything better than what VCX currently owns.
Low Fees That Democratize Access
Traditional venture capital funds charge a 2% management fee plus 20% carried interest. Some of the top-tier funds charge 3% management fees and 35% carry. That, to me, is too much.
So when any investor, not just accredited investors, can access a fund holding some of the most promising private companies in America for only a 1.85% fee and no carry, that becomes doubly attractive.
When a fund holds companies that are already publicly traded and accessible to anyone, paying carry is a tough pill to swallow since we can just buy those publicly-traded companies ourselves directly. Pershing Square Holdings is a useful comparison here where I wrote a deep-dive into why it trades at a meaningful discount to NAV.
International Demand May Just Be Waking Up
For nearly three years, I fielded questions from international readers of Financial Samurai asking whether they could invest in the Fundrise's products. The answer was always unfortunately no, even if you were from Canada. And I never had a good equivalent to point them toward.
Now that VCX is publicly listed on the NYSE, any international investor can buy a share. The international demand curve for this kind of product could represent billions of dollars, and that demand has barely begun to show up because so few people know about VCX still.
My Expectations Are Always Low
Finally, VCX far surpassed my expectations partly because after 30 years of investing, I have seen just about everything. From the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, to the 2000 dotcom crash, to the 2008 global financial crisis, experience has a way of leaving scars.
Just when I thought I could not lose, I lost a boatload. And when something felt like a sure thing, a completely random exogenous event like COVID came out of nowhere and wiped out entire industries overnight.
As a result, I stay conservative with my expectations. If you invest long enough, anything can and will happen. The upside surprises feel sweeter precisely because you never take them for granted.
What Comes Next For VCX
Given that most shares are locked up until September 19, 2026, speculating about where VCX trades from here is not especially useful. If you must speculate, it's always good to be conservative so you have a greater chance of being surprised on the upside.
What I do believe is that the underlying NAV will continue to grow as I see AI as a decade long investing trend. And one of my key investing strategies is to recognize a trend, and invest in it for as long as possible.
The key variable is how much the share price trades at a premium or discount to NAV over time. Gravity tends to push premiums toward NAV. That said, with the scarcity of supply and the amount of growing demand, the premium could remain elevated for a while. Just look at how some stocks like AMC and GameStop traded during the pandemic.
However, if key holdings like OpenAI go public, the scarcity value of owning them through VCX diminishes, and the premium would logically compress.
So the real question is whether the Fundrise investment team can continue to identify and invest in the next generation of breakout private companies the way they identified many of their current holdings. Based on their track record and the value-added component they bring, I believe the answer is yes.
Taking Leaps of Faith
Investing is a constant battle between courage and faith. You can do all the due diligence in the world and still lose. But every once in a while, you pipe a 250-yard three-wood off the fairway and reach a long par 5 in two. And when you do it as a high handicapper, you are more shocked than anything. That is exactly how I feel right now.
I am deeply grateful to Ben Miller, Russell Tischler, Kendall Davis, and the entire Fundrise team for having the determination to keep building through genuinely difficult times once the Fed began aggressively hiking rates in 2022.
Being able to democratize access to venture capital for everyday investors is an incredible accomplishment. Thank you for supporting this site all these years.
As for what I am going to do with my liquidity, the answer for now is not much. When a windfall arrives, I like to sit on it for at least a month before spending or investing it. This helps ensure I don't do anything foolish.
What I do know is that I will take my parents out for a great dinner when I visit them in Honolulu, and my wife out here in San Francisco. Then I'll treat my in-laws to something too. Beyond that, I am going to sit in the moment and simply be thankful that everything worked out. Because goodness knows, it often does not.
Readers, how are you feeling about VCX? Why do you think it has outperformed expectations so dramatically? Have you ever identified an investment idea, put significant capital to work, and had it actually pan out even better than planned? If so, what was the investment and what did you do with the proceeds?
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Any thoughts on whether investors should sell a portion of VCX once the lock up period is over? I think AI has potential in the short term but also think VCX may drop in value when some of the underlying companies go public. Would be interesting to know your thoughts.
Do you actually know anyone who is happy with Fundrise? Has any Fundrise investor ever not complained about withdrawing money?
@Sam, thanks for sharing these posts—it’s great to see the Fundrise community coming together like this. To your point, staying humble is key, especially after seeing it hit $500 against a $20 NAV. We definitely shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves; a valuation like that just isn’t sustainable.
In my view, $40–$50 seems like a much fairer price once the six-month lock-up period ends. What’s your take on that? (Apologies if you’ve already addressed this in an earlier thread!)
I’m just happy VCX is up, because before the listing, I thought there was a 20% chance it would be down since closed-end listed funds tend to trade at a 7% discount to NAV historically. But those funds usually just own public investments we can all buy.
For those of us concerned with the fees; here is the Chat GPT explanation- I welcome any feedback:
How the fee is actually taken
Fundrise does NOT send you a bill or withdraw cash from your account.
Instead, they:
Simple example
Let’s say:
After 1 year (before fees):
Now apply fee (~1.85%):
New NAV ≈ $10.80 instead of $11
What you see as an investor
So instead of:
You see:
Made a little prediction graph with Claude after obsessing over my paper gains since last Friday. I have to keep reminding myself a price somewhere between $40-60 when this comes down is a fantastic return for us locked shareholders. Nonetheless, it’s hard not to psychologically anchor to these tulip numbers and I’m already mourning the eventual pop lol. Probably peak over the next 3 days and start coming down next Monday.
Sam really love your content (perspectives, family values, etc.) and been allocating my portfolio based on a lot of your guidance over the past decade. Started with your portfolio allocations by age and then learned more and more. Would not have known about fundrise without you. Many thanks!
I wish all current shareholders luck with this venture. Admittedly, I pulled my investment in February as I had mixed feelings on the iPO (bad luck?) Folks who timed their entry well
should be excited.. how many get to “exit” well once the floodgates open in 6 mos? Paper gains and an adrenaline rush until that time.. to the moon!
Understandable to have had mixed feelings about the listing. In fact, I would say at least 50% of the commenters in my post, What The Fundrise Venture NYSE Listing Means For Investors, didn’t want to list. They also complained about a meager increase in management fee to 2.5%, which I found strange since traditional venture is 2% and 20% of profits.
But I commend you for having the conviction to pull your money and be congruent with your thoughts. Most people just grumble and don’t do anything about the situation. Congruency with thought and action is a very powerful attribute.
And yes, no counting chickens until liquidity is available. But I said I plan to hold for 5-10 years, and I will for the vast majority of my shares.
You would hold your shares if it stays at a 20x over NAV? I mean, it won’t hold these levels, but I think you’re more financially savvy than that.
I posted on friday 3/20, but its Tuesday evening 3/24 and its getting ridiculous now.
VCX printed 392 today, which is a 26X premium over NAV in 4 days. And whats crazier is that the mainstream media is just starting to find out – saw a Bloomberg post on this few hours ago. I dont know about others, but I think the comments predicting $500 may not be that wrong afterall, as the wider market participants try playing catch-up
It is interesting that we’ve been talking about Fundrise Venture since 2022, and only now the mainstream media and others are finding out. But it makes sense because the mainstream media reports after the fact.
Here on Financial Samurai, I try to identify a problem (AI making everyone obsolete), and come up with a solution (invest in the very AI companies that will make the labor market more difficult today and for our children).
You’re totally right! I couldn’t find any mainstream media post about this fund. I talked to a few friends about VCX and no one is interested in. By the time the mainstream media starts reporting it, I feel that’s a good time to exit. Right now is still very early stage. It is probably the price can sustain $500 if the public get interest.
I will be thrilled if VCX sustains itself above $200, let alone $500 after lockup. But I’ve also seen things get even better, so you never know!
Sam, how are you holding in there? If you’re checking computershare you’re probably seeing an 8-figure number locked up for six months. I’m guessing a lot of people are going to be huffing into paper bags for the next months praying this doesn’t come back to 2x NAV
Doing well. I cleaned another bathroom this morning, dropped off my kids at school, and spent two hours painting a rental property door. It took 45 min longer than expected because I only had one roller and paint brush, and the outside was black with two coats and the inside was white with two coats. So I had to wash the brush each time.
Feels good to help out my tenant and maintain a core asset that generates semi-passive retirement income. It’s just life as usual as there’s nothing I can really do and I’m a long-term investor.
How are you doing?
Thanks for the great blog! With a bunch of us in the same 180 day LU period , is there any way to hedge on the current price? Is selling short restricted for those who own shares that are under the lockup?
VCX keeps going up. I wonder, do they have samurai on the moon?
Sam, thanks for all the great financial advice you given us over the last several years. With VCX going up in price so quickly, do you think that Fundrise will end up splitting the stock? Before long it may be too expensive for smaller investors to get in.
OMG, what a small world. Just got back from my local FedEx and heard an amazing conversation. One employee was telling another one how in his culture a bird pooping on you is considered good luck and that’s what had happened to him. He later found out that a stock he’d invested in pre-IPO had briefly gone up to 9000%. Dying of curiosity I asked him about the stock and it was Fundrise. So, I told him all about my Financial Samurai and how I follow him as should he. Of course, I didn’t invest and is totally on me, I am however happy that a young person has a portfolio and has done well.
I have a question- what happens if one of the companies in the VCX portfolio goes public? Does a VCX share holder get shares of the new public company?
Also- a million thanks (literally) to Sam. I have been feeling really smart that past few days. Hopefully the feeling lasts!
Time for a sad is me post…LOLLL. This is for all of us who didn’t pull the trigger on the Innovation Fund as VCX just gets halted at 312.A cool $1,500% rise in less than a week – for a FUND no less. Not talking some crazy little biotech here.
Congrats to all and mostly to you Sam. You have been very convicted on this theme of “investing in AI for you kids” for over a year at least and it looks like you will gain incredible wealth by putting money where you mouth/pen is. The stock market is really an amazing thing. My wife and I are set for life and my kids are in their 20s and gainfully employed so your rationale didn’t really resonate with me. This is sad me…LOLLLL
The more I think about it the more it makes sense. By taking VCX public before all the big AI companies go public you are capitalizing on those IPOs hype and anticipation – giving the common person a chance to get in now. This money will allow Fundrise to make incredible investments, as we have already seen. Then if Anthropic and Open AI and others have successful IPOs, this will gain even further. OF course, always easy to “see it” in hindsight. Of course it will pull back but I think in 6 months it will have generated incredible wealth and my guess if Fundrise has some info of some of these companies registering for IPO by then.
Kicking myself for not buying just 10 or 20k of the Innovation fund over the past couple years. But, alas, there will always be another in the stock market.
“My wife and I are set for life and my kids are in their 20s and gainfully employed so your rationale didn’t really resonate with me.”
This is huge, and congrats to you and your family! At the end of the day, can’t ask for anything more than being financially secure.
It is always the case where one wishes they invested more or invested at all when some investment does well. But there’s always another opportunity somewhere.
It is interesting that if I didn’t have young kids, I most likely would not have invested nearly as aggressively in VCX pre-listing since early 2023. Seeing so many bright kids that look like mine getting rejected from 90% of the colleges they applied to was also worrying.
So due to fear of their future of them being shut out from colleges and the labor market, I had a purpose, which is what I write about in the next post. And when you have a purpose, you have a will, and a way.
But at the end of the day, any outsized gains and wealth are mostly due to luck.
So hopefully we can keep getting lucky in other ways, while also knowing that bad luck is always lurking just around the corner.
-Sam
Indeed! And there is always the next generation. We will be funding our grandkids college (if we have any and if there is anything like collge) but that seemed very far away but this could have been a big payoff toward that goal.
Same boat…didn’t buy Innovation Fund when I could have at any point over the past few years even though I was already in the Fundrise universe. It’s all in the realm of “hindsight is 20/20”. For every person who made a “killing” in stocks, real estate, etc. there are countless others who lost their shirts!! I did buy $10K of VCX at $95 per share and now I’m in the conundrum of do I try to sell while it’s trading at this crazy multiplier over NAV and just take a nice win and move on or do I keep it and see what happens. If only I had a crystal ball. Something tells me that this crazy multiplier isn’t sustainable but who knows.
Congrats on being in the Money. The way I think about things is this: you could never lose if you lock in a gain.
Hindsight is always clear and we just have to do the best with what we know now. And of course, in hindsight, I wish I invested far more in VCX pre-listing.
But I’m proud to have worked with Fundrise for over 10 years through its ups and downs. Things sometimes go very slowly and then very quickly.
Sam…thanks for steering me in the right direction…your comment “you can never lose if you lock in a gain” was just what I needed to snap me back to reality. Today I sold 50 of my $95 shares for $550 each which paid me back my initial investment of $10K plus a bunch and still left me with 55 shares to sell or keep long term. I think that if prices come down to a more rational level I may reinvest my gains but will definitely wait until September to see what happens when the market opens to the restricted shares. Thanks for your sage advice.
Long time reader first time commenter. I suggest you do a follow-up post on how to think about what to do when the end of the lock-up period approaches. I’ll probably at least sell a portion to get my principal and some profit out, then let the rest run. But I’m not sure what financial information I should be looking at to better understand the risk-benefit analysis.
Total insanity.
$300 per share tonight
Really gonna be ugly for longs paying up for this
Seen this many times, pure online gambling, shorts being tortured and blown up . Broken Markets.
I wouldn’t say broken unless this still is trading skyhigh when lockup ends. This little piece of the market is a bit like a meme stock till then. Just enter the casino at your own risk. All areas of the market with tiny floats are different.
Yup. I also look at it this way, people have not had access to these companies before and want to be part of them. There several in the bucket that can be the next Nvidia or bigger. This might have seemed outrageous a week ago but I am expecting this to hit at least $500-1000 / share. Will it sustain there it might for a while – maybe years. If we are that high, the amount of people that sell in September when unrestricted shares come available won’t have too much of an impact. Going to be interested ride. Sam will probably have that house in Hawaii that he posted as an April Fools a few years back. Haha.
Hah, you remember that April fools day of Post. Thanks for the reminder, I think I have to write another one.
Going to $500 plus a share? Wow, I guess anything is possible. But I wouldn’t count on it this year.
Consider the past 2 days we keep hovering around $300, I think $500 is not out of the question at all and possibly higher. This is still very early, it could snowball as more people find out about it especially internationally. Also, hard to tell what will happen with the war, if it ends then I think we will see another huge jump as people’s fear settle’s down in the markets. FOMO I think is low right now, we haven’t seen what happens if it goes crazy. Not many people really know about it yet. Trading x amount over NAV or any logic goes out the window. Nobody cares anymore. It also could go the other way but I my bet and hunch is we are just getting started with this train. You might need to scale up on that Hawaii house- lol.
I did wonder if VCX has done so well in a terrible market, how would it perform in a bull market.
I hope you are right. I always have low expectations for everything, but MAYBE I can up it just a little bit.
But first, let me finish painting a door at a rental. Two coats, both sides!
Well, woke up this morning and it was $540. I guess next target is $1000 / share. LMAO. Gosh I hope this stay comes Sept.
Sold my unrestricted shares day one at $65. Not ideal in retrospect but I wanted to make sure that made money on this investment regardless. Now staring at those restricted shares and thankful I can’t touch them while the temptation is so high.
Any thoughts on these crazy prices right now (currently at 185). None of it makes any sense. I get supply is limited but who is buying at 10X the NAV? If you have unrestricted shares is it crazy to keep them? Sell and run?!
You can never lose if you lock in a gain. What percentage of your overall shares is unrestricted?
A small percent (I also decided to invest in my kid’s future with AI so thank you)! Sounds like you’d say sell! What is your take on the current market dynamic? It seemed inflated at 75 and now we’re more than double that. Just trying to make sense of what is going on.
Cha-Ching!
Thank you, Sam. You are a gd American hero.
If early Innovation fund investors are subject to a 6-month lock-in, where are the VCX shares now being traded on the NYSE coming from? Are some Fundrise insiders able to sell shares now for these massive gains? Or is Fundrise making additional shares available directly to the NYSE (and if so, who profits from those gains)?
Many long-time investors were offered unrestricted share to buy before listing of up to $10,000.
So if 6,000 investors bought $10,000 worth, that’s $60 million float available.
Fundrise really focused on the individual, the little guys, and not institutions.
This VCX trade is crazy… 9X return in a handful of trading days. I assume everyone is going to rush for the exits once the lockup expires. If not, they’re going to lose their shirts if anyone goes public!
Maybe. Another thought is that once you sell you might never be able to get back in. I’ve sold out of too many winning positions to watch them climb to the moon. Tesla, Amazon, NVDA…… don’t let go of a good thing.
If you do a little homework, you will figure out that this isn’t the only way to gain access to these companies at NAV.
Think about what happens if these companies go public at anything less than 10x. Is SpaceX going to go public at $10-15 trillion?
I do think that the NAV is less helpful in valuing VCX. For starters the management fee is minuscule compared to a normal fund. But more importantly these companies are going to get massively revalued at future rounds. A SpaceX IPO would be a big win, but not all of the portfolio is close to an IPO.
Sam, VCX was my first experience investing in private companies. Given its success, I’m looking forward to seeing more offerings from Fundrise in this space.
In the meantime, I’ve been exploring other ways to access private investments and came across platforms like EquityZen, Forge, and Republic. They all seem to differ quite a bit in terms of minimums, structure, and liquidity.
Have you had any experience with any of these? I’d be interested in your perspective if so. Also, are there any other viable avenues for private investing that you think are worth exploring?
Thanks!
Cool, I haven’t invested on those platforms before. Please let me know what your experience is like. Thanks
Sam, long-time reader here for more than a decade. I’ve always appreciated your writing as it’s great food for thought, and I thought I’d take this opportunity to express that appreciation. (Note: as you say, there aren’t any locked-in gains here and we shouldn’t expect any in 6 months, so this is more a general “thank you” that perhaps is long overdue!)
I started looking at Fundrise last year as a option to redeploy capital after selling a property near SF, and your ‘barbell’ and ‘hedge for AI / kids’ framing really resonated and ultimately gave me the conviction to allocate 3% of assets.
Zooming out from that, I’ve been a long time reader as I feel our circumstances and philosophy are similar, though I missed the dot-com boom by just a year or two. Graduating in 2001, I also had nothing meaningful to lose in the downturn either. 25 years later, it’s quite remarkable to be able to participate again in something crazy. Even if this paper gain goes back down in six months, I’m just happy to have finally joined the experience and the fun, rather than just observe. Thanks again for the insight to get off the sidelines.
Nice to hear from you Vince. I’d rather be two years younger and miss the dot com boom than be two years older and richer!
Yes, it is so crazy to finally re-experience the max enthusiasm again, like catching lightning in a bottle. But we did have the craziness with the meme stocks and NFTs in 2020-2021, but I never participated.
Let’s enjoy the ride!
Sam, let me add my thanks to those of so many others who appreciate your guidance over the years, and especially regarding Fundrise. When I saw my balance and then read your “stay humble” post, I literally went and cleaned the bathroom, lol. As I’ve expressed to you before, in 2012 I quit my teaching job to re-enter SAHM life. But with my bent in History and English, and the husband’s in Theology and Psychology, neither of us paid too much attention to our finances. So I made it my job to figure it all out and maximize what we could. In my learning journey I followed dozens of bloggers. As the years went by I began to be able to finish the thoughts of the writers, so one by one, each was dropped. Except for yours. I read, re-read your posts, bought your books, re-allocated accordingly. I even rejected Fundrise’s Real Estate because you would have deemed me overweight in RE. My average annual gain since 2012 is 15.3%, with most years not contributing and very few company “matches.” Not too bad for this poor humanities-bent family! We hope these VCX gains hold, but even if they are reduced, I’m grateful for the continuing education. Your guidance these years has been truly life-changing. Thank you, and may God bless you and your sweet family.
Hi Kathie,
Congrats on your success! A 15.3% compound annual return since 2012 is incredible. A top tier performance indeed.
I’ll be happy with just a 100% premium to NAV over the long run. But it’s sure fun to see 500% at the moment.
Oh, and if you have a moment and want to help out, leaving a positive review on Amazon on Millionaire Milestones, Buy This Not That, and my podcast on Apple, would be incredible. Every review counts!
All the best
Sam, thanks for leading me to Fundrise! Your thoughts on using a collar to protect gains during the lock up period would be great..
Hi Jim,
In theory, using a collar strategy (buying a protective put while selling a covered call) is a great way to lock in gains and reduce downside risk during a lock-up period. It’s a very common strategy for public equities, especially after big run-ups.
However, with VCX, it’s not really feasible.
There are two main issues:
1. No options market (yet)
A collar requires listed options (puts and calls), and VCX currently doesn’t have an options chain. Without liquid derivatives, there’s simply no way to structure a true collar.
2. Lock-up restrictions
Even if options did exist, lock-ups typically restrict transferring or hedging shares through derivatives or short sales. Some sophisticated investors try to hedge via correlated assets, but that’s imperfect and often not worth the complexity.
It’s hard to make an effective hedge the monster. I don’t see anything that has performed as well as VCX, that is a similar asset class.
Sam, thank you. I wondered if it was a viable option. Again thank you for your sharing your knowledge with us! You make a difference in our lives, children etc.!
Its going to be near impossible to legally hedge for longs. Its going to be be 6 months of torture. Probably.
Congrats to those that bought the unrestricted shares and didn’t bail at the low low $100 price. ;-)
Yes, congrats indeed.
But nah, no torture. Just daydreaming and fun. Anything above $60 a share is truly a huge bonus IMO.