The first half of 2013 closed up an amazing ~15% despite the recent volatility in the markets. We are tracking way ahead of where I thought we’d be (+9% for the year) and if things keep up we’ll return 30% by Dec 31. It’s unlikely the second half of the year will be as strong as the first half but we can always dream can’t we? I’ll be happy if we get back to 1,650 on the S&P 500 (3.5% upside).
The markets are currently in a transition period as the Federal Reserve reduces its quantitative easing. I’ve taken the sanguine view that higher interest rates are a positive reflection of the economy due to rising demand for money. Interest rates don’t move in a vacuum.
Housing is the big question mark now. Will a 4.5% 30-year fixed mortgage rate start curtailing housing demand given the rate was 3.5% only a few months ago? Absolutely. Add on a 12% nationwide increase in housing prices year over year, and buyers are getting squeezed. If housing slows down so do the earnings for major lending institutions. You can see a cycle where layoffs occur if there’s a drastic slowdown causing a decrease in demand for credit that ultimately hits earnings some more.
What I suspect will happen is that greed takes over by both home buyer and financial institution. Home buyers will simply borrow shorter duration mortgages through adjustable rate mortgages to get a lower rate. I’m absolutely fine with ARMs as the spread between short and long duration loans is excessive. Unfortunately, we will inevitably see buyers borrow more than they can afford so hopefully everyone sticks with the 30/30/3 rule for home buying. Financial institutions will figure out ways for borrowers to get their loans and sacrifice credit quality to meet their numbers.
BUCKLE YOUR INVESTING SEAT BELTS!
I’ve hurt myself up plenty of times in search for unicorns. That said, I won’t stop searching through my punt portfolio (rollover IRA), because where there is no risk there’s never any reward. Most of your equities money should be boringly allocated towards index funds over the long run. But I encourage you to set aside 10%-30% of your equity allocation, depending on age and risk tolerance to look for big wins.
Here are some thoughts on dealing with fear and greed to minimize sub-optimal investment decisions.
* When things are going to hell, remind yourself that rebounds are inevitable and it’s better to stay the course if the business model is not broken.
* When you’re sitting on big gains remind yourself that your gains mean nothing until you lock in profits.
* Have conviction in your buy and sell ideas, but don’t become so delusional as to think you will consistently beat the market.
* Everybody is a genius in a bull market. Remind yourself that you are nobody special.
* If you left a lot of money on the table, tell yourself a win is better than a loss.
* Consider spending some of your money on something tangible that lasts for longer than the days the euphoria of a gain lasts.
* Consistently reassess your risk tolerance by testing your pain points. It’s very hard to know what your risk tolerance is without going over the edge. Having over a 40% position valued at $170,000 in one stock is too much for even my punt portfolio. By constantly monitoring my own emotions I’ve concluded that $50,000-$80,000 equivalent to 10-15% of a portfolio is ideal where I can go on vacation on not worry. Risk tolerance is a combination of the absolute dollar amount + percentage of portfolio.
* Rebalance your portfolio at least twice a year and do a deep dive at least once a quarter.
* If you lose your shirt, go to the bathroom and give a good cry. Then get yourself together and list out all the things you did wrong so you have a better chance of making money in the future.
* Use limit orders as much as possible when buying and selling positions.
* Consider using three tranches or more to build or get rid of a full position.
* Implement stop loss orders of 15-20% coupled with your legging in strategy. It’s important not to get married to a stock as we’ve seen stocks lose investors tremendous amounts of money in the past. Apple down 40%+ is a great example.
* The only way to become a better trader is to list out all your mistakes as I’ve done here, learn from them, feel the pain, and try not to do them again.
* No bet, no win. You’ve got to take calculated risks in order to make money in the stock markets. If you’re uncomfortable with taking so much risk, consider hiring a financial adviser to offload your stress. Here’s an article I wrote for experienced investors with sizable portfolios on how to utilize a financial adviser as well.
ALWAYS BE MINDFUL OF YOUR INVESTMENTS
I cannot emphasize enough how important the relationship is between risk and reward. We cannot have delusions of making lots of money if we aren’t willing to invest in riskier assets or businesses. Just think of early stage Venture Capital money. Money is often invested based off a management’s reputation or an idea alone. Profits are often a long ways away, but when there is a liquidity event, such investments can pay enormous windfalls. Most investments will fail, but the key is to identify opportunities and have the guts and connections to put your money where your mouth is.
Greed and fear are inescapable for those who take an active approach to investing. Most of us will not outperform the broader markets, which is why most of our capital is invested in index funds, mutual funds, stable large cap dividend stocks and so forth. Although some us will tremendously outperform. When we do, we can attribute our wins due to luck instead of research and guts to keep detractors at bay.
Wealth Management Recommendation:
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Photo: Black Swan. Black swan events happen more often than you think. 2013.