There are press reports that Bernie Madoff has cancer and doesn’t have many years left to live.  If this is the case, does Bernie win in the end?  For decades, Bernie has been pilfering his clients for millions, and living far beyond his wildest dreams.

Let’s say that through an honest living, he could have made $50 million over the past 30 years of work.  However, through his devious ways, he makes $450 million more.  Even though he’s in jail now, and spends 5 years before he dies at age 76, doesn’t he come out ahead despite getting the book thrown at him?

In a bull market, everybody is a financial genius. Although I sold 75% of my Tesla holding at $888/share, I’m glad I held onto the rest. Otherwise, I’d feel like a real dummy!

Over at one of my favorite blogs, “Get Rich Slowly”, site owner JD writes how he successfully invested more money in the stock market earlier this year.  He wasn’t bragging, he was just stating a fact. JD is very influential, especially given he has 68,000 subscribers!

What’s interesting to note is the commentary that follows his entry.  There are about 125 posts so far on the topic today alone.  Not bad, considering the 75% commentary range is between 60-90.  

After reading every single comment here at home, it surprises me that over 80% of the readers have outperformed the S&P drastically and have made a lot of money.  80% compares favorably to studies which show that only 6% of active fund managers outperformed the S&P 500 over the last five years!

In one of the greatest stock market turmoils in our lifetimes, apparently the majority at GRS didn’t lose much money, didn’t capitulate at the bottom, and made some timely investments earlier this year to ride the rocket ship! Financial genius might be very common.

By the time Baidu, the “Google of China” went public, Venture Capital firm Draper Fisher’s 28% stake was worth over $1 billion dollars by the end of the trading day. Not a bad return considering their likely sub-$50 million investment just years ago! In a world full of strikeouts, it just takes one home run to win a ball game.

The Financial Samurai reader is savvy enough to know that strong work ethnic and good morals are key pieces of the success puzzle. Sometimes you just need to be in the right place at the right time. When Venture Capital firms fund startups, they are looking to take equity stakes in companies in a robust industry, lead by visionaries who can execute towards enormous profit potential. The majority of investments go bust, and the successes often take years and tons of selfless involvement before returns are seen. Eventually, the exit strategy is for their investment to get acquired or IPO.

We have the opportunity to be our very own individual venture capitalists everyday. Many of us may take for granted the people we meet, but not you. After all, all it takes is one billionaire to give you one million dollars before you’re rich right? Receiving an opportunity is what it’s all about. You’re reading this post essentially because like me, you want to be financially independent sooner, rather than later. The ability to be financially independent by 40 is the reason why we work so hard now. If the deadline was 20 years longer, where’s the fun and challenge in that?

The S&P 500 index has rallied 40%+ from its March 2009 low, and is up 8% Year To Date. Despite this solid performance, unemployment has surged to 9.7%, and many forecast the increase will continue until 11-13% unemployment. We’ve got 12% unemployment here in California already.

The question I have is: How high can the unemployment rate go before the bull market derails? Is the level 15%, or is the level as high as 20%? I cannot imagine being unemployed and desiring employment in this market. There’s just so little out there and the competition is tremendous. For those who are already employed, things seem hopeful that with earnings rebounding from 2008 and less people to pay, 2009 could be a big year.

Is the market currently being driven by the “90% employed” segment of the population who thinks the other 10% doesn’t really matter to the economy’s bottom line? With consumer spending consisting of 70% of GDP, how can we ignore the fact that 1 out of every 10 are not working, and likely another 10% are underemployed and looking for more work to survive? Am I looking backwards, since unemployment is a lagging indicator, and the stock market is a leading indicator?

It absolutely perplexes me that euphoria is back in the markets. We shouldn’t be surprised if we double dip in 2020, and see a long drawn out recovery until mid 2010. Personally, I’m raising cash by pulling money out of the market. We’ve had a great rebound and I don’t want to get greedy.

Readers, where do you think unemployment levels are heading and what are your arguments if you think the markets are going higher?

Learn how to negotiate a severance and be free from a job you hate!

Keigu,

Financial Samurai – “Slicing Through Money’s Mysteries”