Let's say you've currently got a good amount of cash to invest. With the global financial recession building, opportunities are piling up. However, things could get worse in this bear market given we're only nine months in. How would you invest it?
2022 was a terrible year for both stocks and bonds. Real estate has outperformed stocks by over 20%. You can see Fundrise's returns here. But even real estate is starting to fade as mortgage rates surged higher.
Thankfully, mortgage rates are declining again in 2023 as inflation peaked in mid-2022. The bank runs at SVB and Signature Bank were a scare. But thankfully, things have calmed down again.
How I'd Invest $250,000 Cash Today
After buying the maximum $10,000 worth of I Bonds per person, I've been accumulating a larger-than-normal cash hoard this year. Usually, I'll have between $50,000 – $100,000 in my main bank account. But so far, I've accumulated over $250,000, partially due to a $122,000 private real estate investment windfall.
In addition to accumulating cash, I've also been dollar-cost averaging in the S&P 500 on the way down. I've also been dollar-cost averaging in Sunbelt real estate. But these purchases are usually only in $1,000 – $5,000 increments.
Now that my cash balance is larger than normal, this is my thought exercise on how to deploy it. If you have less than $250,000, that’s fine too. I share the percentages of where I will allocate my money.
Background Info To Understand Our Investment Process
I'm 45 and my wife is 42. Our kids our 6 and 3.
We consider ourselves moderately conservative investors since we haven't had regular day job income since 2012 for me and 2015 for my wife. We fear having to go back to work, not because of work itself but because we fear losing our freedom with young children. As a result, we are unwilling to take too much investment risk.
Although we don't have day jobs, we do generate enough passive investment income to cover our living expenses. This is our definition of financial independence.
We also generate online income, which we usually reinvest to generate more passive income. Therefore, our cash pile will continue to build if we don't spend or invest the money.
For life goals, we both want to remain unemployed at least until our youngest is eligible for kindergarten full-time in 2025. This way, we can spend more time with both children.
After 2025, we might find day jobs or I might focus on becoming a professional writer. I enjoy being an author but it pays poorly.
We're also looking to upgrade our home in one-to-three years. That said, my wife and children would be happy living in our current home for the next ten years. Buying another home is not a priority.
Our children's educational expenses are on track after we superfunded two 529 plans. We also have life insurance and estate planning set up. Therefore, there's no major big ticket items coming up.
Here's how we'd invest $250,000 cash in today's bear market. This is what we did and are doing with our own cash. This is not investment advice for you. Please always do your own due diligence before making any investment. Your investment decisions are yours alone.
1) Treasury Bonds (60% Of Cash Holding)
Only about 5% of our net worth is in bonds, individual muni bonds we plan to hold until maturity. Our target annual net worth growth rate is between 5% to 10% a year, depending on economic conditions. As a result, being able to earn up to ~5% on up to a 1-year Treasury bond is enticing.
At the same time, I'm always on the lookout for a nicer home because I believe living in a great house is the best way to enjoy our wealth. Think about all the time we spend at home nowadays.
There is no joy or utility derived from owning stocks, which is one of the reasons why I prefer investing in real estate over stocks. However, dividend stocks do provide 100% passive income.
Once the 10-year bond yield reached 4%, I decided to purchase the following Treasury bonds totaling $142,872.91.
- $101,736.74,000 worth of 9-month treasury bills yielding 4.2%.
- $10,766.89 worth of 1-year treasury bills yielding 4.3%
- $15,501.33 worth of 3-year treasury bills yielding 4.45%
- $14,867.95 worth of 2-year treasury bills yielding 4.38%
Although locking in a 4.2% to 4.45% return won't make us rich, it will provide us peace of mind. We also already feel rich, so making more money won't make us feel richer. Our focus is on optimizing our freedom and time.
Here's a tutorial on how to buy Treasury bonds, which includes some buying strategies to consider. I will buy more long-duration Treasuries if the 10-year reaches 4% again, as you can purchase an unlimited amount, unlike I Bonds.
Treasury bond rates have declined a lot since the regional bank runs and the collapse of Credit Suisse. The most attractive Treasury bonds are 3-month and 6-month. 5%+ yields are no longer. However, CDs at 5%+ are looking good now too.
Now that we've deployed 60% of our cash in Treasury bonds, the remaining 39.9% of our cash will be invested in risk assets.
2) Stocks (10% Of Cash Holdings)
Roughly 27% of our net worth is in stocks. It was about 30% at the beginning of 2022. Thanks bear market!
The range has hovered between 20% – 35% since I left work in 2012. Since I started working in equities in 1999, I've done my best to diversify away from stocks and into hard assets.
My career and pay were already leveraged to the stock market. And I saw so many great fortunes made and lost during my time in the industry. When I left work, I continued my preference of investing mostly in real estate.
Unfortunately, we front-loaded our stock purchases in 2022 through our kids' Roth IRAs, custodial accounts, SEP IRAs, and 529 plans. For over 23 years, we've always front-loaded our tax-advantaged accounts at the beginning of the year to get them out of the way.
Most of the time it works out, some of the time it doesn't. That's market timing for you. But we do get to front-load our tax-advantaged investments again in 2023, which we did.
In addition to maxing out our tax-advantaged accounts, we've been regular contributors to our taxable online brokerage accounts. After all, in order to retire early, you need a much larger taxable investment portfolio to live off its income.
No Rush To Buy Stocks
If the Fed insists on raising the Fed Funds rate to 5%+ and ruin the world, then the S&P 500 could easily decline below 3,800. And if earnings start getting cut by 10%, then the S&P 500 could decline to 3,500 based on the median historical P/E multiple.
As a result, I'm no longer nibbling above 4,100. The Fed says it plans to hold the Fed Funds rate at 5% – 5.25% for the rest of the year. The decline in the Series I Bond rate made me more bullish. But that was back on Nov 1, 2022, and the S&P 500 has rebounded higher.
With investors able to get a guaranteed 4%-5% return in Treasuries, it’s hard to see the S&P 500 go much higher than 4,200. Perhaps 4,400 is the upper limit and 3,800 is the lower limit for 2023.
Given the situation, I'm just buying in $1,000 – $5,000 tranches after every 1% – 2% decline through the end of the year. If the S&P 500 goes below 4,000 again, I will increase my investment size to $5,000 a trade.
If I was in my 20s and 30s, I would allocate 60% of my cash to buying stocks instead. 30% would go to online real estate and the rest to Treasuries and education.
3) Venture Capital / Venture Debt (20% Of Cash Holding)
I enjoy investing in private funds because they are long-term investments with no day-to-day price updates. As a result, these investments cause little stress and are easy to forget about.
I've already made capital commitments to a couple venture capital funds from Kleiner Perkins. I also made a capital commitment to Structural Capital, a venture debt fund. As a result, I will just keep contributing to these funds whenever there are capital calls.
I expect venture debt to outperform venture capital (equity) during this time of higher rates. Venture debt is a lower risk way to generate returns in private companies. In a high interest rate environment, you make more money as a lender, not a borrower.
The biggest downside to investing in these funds is higher fees. We’re talking 1-3% of assets and 20-30% of profits. With the bank runs, make sure you and your private funds have the right number of banking relationships to protect your wealth and access liquidity.
4) Real Estate (10% Of Cash Holding)
Real estate is my favorite asset class to build wealth. It provides shelter, generates income, and is less volatile. Unlike with some stocks, real estate values just don't decline by massive amounts overnight due to some small earnings miss. Real estate accounts for about 50% of our net worth.
No matter what happens to the value of our current forever home we bought in 2020, I'm thankful it has been able to keep my family safe and loved during the pandemic. When it comes to buying a primary residence, it's lifestyle first, investment returns a distant second.
All the memories, photos, videos, and milestones our kids have achieved in our current house are priceless. Even when I was suffering from real estate FOMO earlier in the year, our kids said they prefer our much cheaper home. As a real estate obsessed father, that meant a lot.
Their response showed me the price of a home isn't necessarily the main thing that makes it nicer. The house layout and its familiarity matters a lot too.
Given my wife and kids are happy in our home, I won’t be buying another one so soon. Ideally, we live in our current home for at least five years (2025), save up a lot more money, and comfortably upgrade based on my net worth home buying rule.
Therefore, I will continue to dollar-cost average into private real estate funds like Fundrise that invest in single-family homes in the Sunbelt. Prices and rents are cooling, hence the opportunity, since mortgage rates are down over 1% from their peak levels. However, Sunbelt real estate should be a long-term beneficiary of demographic trends, technology, and work from home.
I will be investing in $1,000 – $3,000 tranches. Real estate is looking much more attractive now that prices and mortgage rates have declined. The Fed tightening cycle will likely stop by mid-2023 and Fed Funds Futures are pointing towards rate cuts by end-2023.
Starting in May 2023, I think a window of opportunity to buy real estate is upon us.
5) Debt Pay Down (0% Of Cash Holding)
In a high inflation and high interest rate environment, I'm not paying down any extra mortgage debt. I already paid down some mortgage debt last year when inflation was high and Treasury bond yields were low.
At the time, it was a suboptimal move since it's best to keep your negative real interest rate mortgage for as long as possible. High inflation was paying off the mortgage debt for me. But I paid off some mortgage debt anyway because it felt good and I was uncertain about stocks.
In retrospect, paying down some mortgage debt in 2021 was the right move as it saved me from losing ~20% had I invested the cash in the stock market. Hence, if you have debt, consider following my FS DAIR investing and debt pay down framework. This way, you're always making financial progress.
Today, with inflation still high but Treasury bond yields much higher than mortgage rates, it makes no sense to pay down a negative interest mortgage rate. Instead, it's better to buy Treasury bonds and live for free, which I’m doing.
If you have revolving credit card debt or auto loan debt, I'd follow my FS DAIR framework and accelerate paying down principal. You want to benefit from rising interest rates not get hurt by it.
Just make sure you don’t compromise your liquidity too much in a bear market. Always have at least six months of living expenses in cash.
6) Education (0.1% of Cash Holding)
Education is the best investment. The paradox of education is it is extremely important to help you achieve financial freedom, yet it is also inexpensive or free today.
For example, for only $20 after tax you can order my bestseller, Buy This, Not That and immediately gain a competitive advantage to building wealth. You'll also learn how to make more optimal decisions on some of life's biggest dilemmas.
You could also join 60,000+ others and subscribe to my free weekly newsletter and my free blog posts to stay on top of timely financial topics. The more you immerse yourself in money topics, the more you will learn and take appropriate action to help boost your wealth.
You can also go to YouTube, Khan Academy, or MOOC and watch hundreds of hours of free educational videos. Or you can pay for online courses to get even deeper into a subject.
Ignorance is no longer an excuse given how accessible education is today. Please allocate some of your budget to continuing education. Over time, the combination of experience and education will dramatically improve your confidence, wealth, and peace of mind.
Deployment Speed During Depends On Your Certainty
When the investment return is certain, it's easier to invest cash quickly, like in Treasuries. When you're certain you don't need the money, it's easier to invest for longer durations as well. But not all investments are created equal.
I have deployed 60% of my $250,000 in Treasury bonds because I wanted to earn a higher return immediately. I've also finally optimized my business cash by opening up a CD at 4% and 5%. The investment is risk-free, so I have no fear.
I will most certainly fulfill my venture capital and venture debt capital calls when they come due. Otherwise, I will be banned from ever investing with these fund managers again. These investments have risks, but I want to diversify further.
I'm happy to keep investing in Sunbelt real estate funds, like I have since 2016, because I'm confident in the long-term demographic trend of relocating to lower-cost areas of the country. However, I'm also confident real estate prices and rents will fade over the next year, hence why I'm slowly legging in.
Finally, I'm certain I don't like stock market volatility. I'm also uncertain how far rich central bankers will go to crush the middle class. As a result, I'm just nibbling and will focus on valuations.
It is discomforting to see your cash pile dwindle as you invest during a bear market. However, investing during a bear market tends to work out well over the long run. Further, if you maintain your income streams, your cash pile will replenish every month.
We know the average bear market lasts about 15 months. Hence, there's a decent chance we could get out of this rut some time in 2023. Taking advantage of higher guaranteed returns while legging into risk assets today sounds like the right thing to do.
Reader Questions And Action Items To Invest Cash
Readers, how would you invest $250,000 cash in today’s bear market? Even if you don't have $250,000, where would you invest your money? What type of investments do you think will generate over a 4.2% return over the next 12 months?
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The article had few changes in SP500 levels since it was initially published from 3900 to 4000 and 4000 to 4100. Was it mistakes or some fundamental changes like inflation/FED data affected it? Thanks
The levels change as conditions change. And conditions are changing all the time, hence, why I’m trying to update the post once a month. Thanks
When you consider your Net Worth and investment allocations, do you include your home equity? The reasons I ask is that I have a lot of equity in my home. I had a been a serial refinancer, but I think I will be “stuck” with my 2.375% loan for quite some time.
Your allocation feels more like capital preservation vs growth. I’m about 6 years older and my kids are 10 years older than yours. I’m also heavier than usual in treasuries and CDs at the moment; I’m waiting for an opportunity to jump back into stocks. I don’t need any more real estate–it’s 45% of my NW.
Yes, home equity is included. Just need to be realistic about what that equity is.
What are the purposes of this article on what to do with $250,000 in cash, yes, I would rather invest 60% of the cash, or a majority of it, and a risk for a 5% yielding asset. 5% is pretty rare, and I want to take advantage. 5% right won’t last forever.
If you are trying to compare to me, it’s probably not beneficial since we have different goals and risk tolerances. What is your estimated net worth?
What do you think about the USG debt above 100% above $31T and ironically this is actually better than nearly all other developed economies? If the world’s governments default causing US defaults – what would you invest in as a hedge besides land, food and ammunition? I’m personally not a big believer in precious metals but what else is there? And what to do with our 401ks which keep us locked into the markets? Thank you for all you do!
I’d probably just spend money and enjoy life more. No need to save and invest as much for the future if you think there won’t be one.
But one year and under certificates of deposits, and 5% sounds pretty good to me. So do three months and six months, treasury bills.
New reader – love the site.
I’m new to Fundrise, If you are a new investor, then which fund would you select? I cannot figure out how to invest in the Heartland fund, it now only provides me with a few vanilla choices such as “balanced, long term, income”.
Have the investment options changed?
Hi Michael – Welcome to FS! The Heartland fund was from years ago that has already been filled to the limit. I would focus on the funds they suggest based on your goals and risk tolerance. Start small, and work your way up.
Fundrise’s main strategy is focused on Sunbelt/heartland single-family and multi-family residential real estate. The top down strategy is embedded in all their funds, while adjusting for income/growth/risk.
I feel real estate is bottoming now, and as mortgage rates come down further demand will pick up this summer and beyond.
Don’t forget to sign up for my free newsletter.
Cheers
Can you please explain your reasoning for investing in Fundrise vs REIT stocks?
You can certainly invest in public REITs as well. But you might discover public REITs are even MORE volatile than stocks. The March 2020 downturn was one such time. As a result, public REITs don’t help with diversification away from stocks.
Here is an article comparing private real estate and public REITs.
Personally, I like diversifying into a diversified fund from Fundrise that specializes in Sunbelt single-family and multi-family real estate. It helps me balance out my portfolio of expensive San Francisco, Honolulu, and Lake Tahoe real estate.
I’m also a big believer in the long-term trend of working from home and relocating to lower cost areas of the country as a result.
I pay a lot of attention these posts. When covid happened you were right on the mark and because of that I actually made quite a nice return. Thanks so much for all you do, Sam! Looking forward to your next book!
Sam- I made the mistake of buying cd’s and in hindsight I’m kicking myself (stcg) – I should have bought low coupon similar maturity t bonds. Tax treatment is much better. Turns out banks like the higher coupon ones because they can deduct the interest (that we pay full income tax on)
Yeah, no state income or local income tax with treasuries.
Buy CDs in your IRA if you can.
So another hack in that department – buying TIPS in the 401k. Tips yielding 1.5% is a pretty attractive level at the end of Feb. But because the annual CPI adjustment is STCG, you lose half the benefit to the IRS holding in a non-tax advantaged account.
Just a short comment from me:
“Our approach to saving is all wrong: We need to think about monthly income, not net worth.” — Robert C. Merton, Nobel Prize winner.
Hi Sam,
With regards to T. Bills, why not just park your cash allocation in a money market settlement fund? I just park my cash allocation there and Vanguard is now paying 4.6% and I have liquidity.
Any reason why you prefer CD’s or T- Bills over high yield savings or money markets? Should we think about them as interchangeable?
Taxes. Treasury bond holders don’t pay state or local income taxes. The higher, your state tax rate, the more attractive treasury bonds are. I’m in California.
Same logic applies to muni bonds.
Why not invest $250,000 into something that will grow it to $2.5 million or much more?
Invest 25% into an legitimate alt coin?
Invest 50% into a real estate investment asset , such as multi-family or self storage faculty? It really depends on the NOI upside and to leverage into future assets.
Invest 25% into stocks that will potentially produce 100% to 1000% returns.
For sure. My portfolio is diversified and I definitely hope I can make a 10 bagger in 12-15 years. I just like to focus on paying for college via a tax-efficient 529 plan.
How are you investing for your children’s college education? And how much do you expect for years of college to cost them?
What about MYGAs? Locking in great rates for 10 years.
I’m shocked by how quickly the FED was able to raise interest rates. Even though they probably have caused a recession in by fall 2023, they should have a lot of ammunition to lower rates to dig us out of the recession quickly moving forward. If we do have a bad recession and high unemployment this fall with mass layoffs. I predict the FED lowering rates back to 0% to dig us out soon after. The new normal for interest rates is not 7-8%. This is a temporary FED decision to try to bust inflation with a recession. Once we officially start seeing layoffs in the middle class start up… the FED will start lowering interest rates back down to 0%. My humble prediction.
Thoughts on what to do if I’d like to purchase a home in about 1 year? I’m currently at 90/10 Equities/Bonds & Cash and renting a fairly affordable apartment. I just signed a year lease so I can’t move right now. Plus I like where I live. I’d like to invest in real estate, but mainly as a primary home in about a year. If I wanted to pay cash for the home I’d probably need to move my allocation to 80/20 or 70/30, but don’t really want to sell. Should I be hoarding cash for the next year or keep my allocation and adjust in a year?
Check out this post: How To Invest Your Down Payment Before Buying A Home
Would you apply the same percentages if instead of $250,000 the amount to invest was $50,000 to $5,000,000?
If someone already asked the same questions, my apologies, I don’t have the opportunity to go thru all the comments.
Yes, more or less.
Instead of treasury bonds, why not leave it in savings which yield >4%these days? Robinhood gold has 4.4% on cash.
What abount investing in farmland through FarmTogether? I notice you advertise them on your website but rarely ever talk about them as an investment
I haven’t found the right farmland investment opportunity I like at the moment. But perhaps in the second half of 2023 as borrowing costs decline.
Been buying 3 & 6 Month T-Bills too.
Sam, one asset class that I really like is Equipment Financing.
Been investing in equipment leases for commercial middle market companies (Typically Revenues of $20MM – $1BB).
They’re normally paying 300-600 BPS over SOFR.
These are typically revenue generating assets.
We’ll originate and book Leases with the end-user and then syndicate to the banks that want to buy debt. Terms are typically 36 – 60 Months. Good way to get yield & diversify. May need to raise fund!
What Kind of equipment? What market place is the equipment in, what business? Why are they paying above market returns?
Most of the portfolio is manufacturing & production equipment. However, we’re doing healthcare (Imaging Equip) and logistics too.
All the Equipment remains at the Lessee’s (End-Users) facilities.
Although the rates seem higher (SOFR – 4.8%), it’s the new norm. From a lending standpoint, we’re just in a tighter and higher rate environment.
Normal payback on equipment is 1-3 yrs (including lease financing costs) for the end-user.
Most of our clients use our external lease financing to diversify from their primary banks (Wells, Fifth Third, Zions, etc). Their banks are typically prime + spread & include blanket liens and covenants/warrants.
Hope that helps.
Hi Sam, conundrum, my sister and (we are 59 and 56) i have two properties paid off rented one worth 1m the other 500k. My sister wants to sell and cash out how can I keep properties buy her out and still have some passive income? BTW, the book was great.
If you don’t have cash to buy treasury now, does it make sense to sell some of your current stock ( given limited return next year)? Might be hit with a tax bill for capital gain though..
I really dislike selling anything to cause a tax liability. So I’m focused on investing incremental cash.
It’s also hard to know where the S&P 500 will go in 2023. If you look at the estimates, the average is about 4000. So in other words, we’re not going anywhere. But some estimate down 20% from here.
Sam,
I’ve been a religious reader of the blog since my honeymoon in 2013 when I realized that I would be in charge of my family’s finances and had no idea what I was doing and started googling. Post reading/listening to you and a lot of others throughout the years, you all have helped me in my journey to pre-funding what I hope to be a great life with our now complete family of five. And as a Wall Street person myself (fixed income not equities) it’s been immensely gratifying to hear your perspective on the markets especially given how right you have been over the years (2020 bottom anyone?).
As a trader my skill sets are with numbers not letters but given my lack of involvement in the Financial Samurai community (outside of a few comments) I wanted to at least try to provide your readers with a bit of information in the fixed income markets which, since cash is trash for the last decade, has been largely ignored. Given the Fed’s hawkish stance and the market’s willingness to buy every dip given everyone’s personal balance sheet has massively improved since the pandemic, I’ve come up with what I think is an interesting short term investment thesis.
FLOT is the Blackrock floating rate ETF which seems pretty benign in nature at first and looking at the 12mo yield is currently 1.75%. However if you look at the indicated yield going forward with the last declared dividend it’s~5.1% and will only go higher given most FRNs are quarterly resets and the Fed keeps insisting it will keep hiking until it breaks the back of the economy. This protects your cash the best from inflation while you wait for the S&P to reset given most money market accounts have a 3 handle.
My second investment thesis is that the S&P will not bottom until after student loans start to be paid again. A lot of the money in the economy being spent by young people has gone into consumer goods which has propped up earnings because of both all the stimulus being paid to people during the pandemic but also from a lack of having to be paid back to student loans. With the can being kicked until June or the Student Loan forgiveness question is answered I don’t see there being a catalyst for a big equity sell off until then.
SCOTUS has recently announced they will hear the Student Loan forgiveness in February next year and given the current SCOTUS make up as well as frankly a pretty big question on the legality of the program from people on the center left, I would think it gets struck down. With some student loans floating the rate having to be paid will be much greater and will suck a lot of money out of the economy leading to the recession that the Fed hopes for.
Therefore my investment thesis is to currently keep buying FLOT and wait for what I think is an overvalued equities market to fall to a more reasonable target (pre pandemic levels). The other side of the argument is that if SCOTUS allows the program or if they continue to keep kicking the can down the road for Student Loans that equities will soar and you will miss the rally. However it seems like Jerome Powell has taken the lessons from the 70s at heart and will do whatever he needs to take the economy to break the back of inflation and you can keep clipping a 5% coupon with downside protection until he does.
Thank you so much for all the content you’ve put out over the year; I’m sure you constantly hear how much you’ve changed peoples lives with your hard work and research but from my perspective your blog has been an invaluable tool for helping me create the life that I want with my wife and three kids. It’s a lot of work but I hope that you continue to educate all of us; in a sea of negativity and complaining across the internet you are a joy to read with your optimism and logic. The best to your and your family in the holiday season.
Best
i really liked this post Sam! i’ve been sitting on and building cash all year. currently i have about 80k in checking. i recently put 130k in one year treasuries after reading this article when first posted, which are at 4.3%. i also have $360k in VMRXX. it advertises as a yield of 1.25% but over the past few months i have been getting a monthly dividend of over 1k, which is about 3.34% yield according to my math. and of course it is fully liquid.
my fixed income/cash stands at 11% if net worth which is higher than i woukd like but in this uncertain environment i’m ok with it. i may use a portion to grab a property next year if real estate comes down like many predict.
i am already 60% of net worth in stocks and 20% of net worth in business so don’t feel particularly like i need to do more than nibble on equities like you on selloffs. and i have no debt or mortgage on my home so good there. just sitting tight.
my one regret is i sold my primary residence last year in a great area (northern VA inside beltway) and probably should have held onto it. could be getting 3-4k a month on rental income.
Love these updates Sam! 9 months into this thing, would welcome another real estate market update as well, in terms of timing for a potential upgrade.
Sam, just curious if you’re still holding the bag on BABA. I DCF’ed on the way down and learned a valuable lesson of trying to catch a falling knife. Curious on your thoughts of China at the moment.
Sadly, yes. Not a large position, but still down a lot. Hard to seek Chinese equities now at 15-year lows.
Personally, I’ve been buying Alibaba all year as much as I can between $70 and $90. I now have 110 shares at average cost of $150/share. This compare to my position of 50 shares @ $225/share at the end of last year.
That’s the only purchase I’ve made this year. Waiting to see how the market settle next year with interest rates and inflation to start buying again in the US market.
I think China fears are overblown. I’m sure things will sort out in a way or another. I just don’t know how. But when that happen, Alibaba will be a big benificiary. If things turn out badly, I can’t lose that much since Alibaba is now so low.
And it’s not a big position anyway. So, I can’t lose that much. That’s the kind of investments I like to make.. Not a lot of downside risk. But a lot of upside potential if things go back to normal.
Put it all in CLM – 23% Yearly Dividend; DRIP (or not) it’s paid out monthly.
CD rates for 1-3 years are really good right now and increasing. Likely FED will continue to avoid QE thru 2024, we could see high 4% 23 months CDs then.
Yes CD rates are going up! CIT is currently offering a 4% APY 18-month CD. We haven’t seen rates that high in ages.
Yesterday I had a banker offer me 3.7 on a money market account!
T-Bills right now are beating the hell out of most CDs. So are 2-year Notes. If you are interested in CDs, I’d buy direct from the Treasury instead.
If you put your money in what is considered a high-rate CD today paying 3-3.5%, the bank will just take your money and buy Treasuries with it at 4.5% and rake 1-1.5% off the top. CDs are a total ripoff right now.
I had my money in CDs for a long time. No more.
Another reason to buy treasuries instead of CDs — no state income tax.
Check brokered CDs on Vanguard, which have been outperforming most govt options.
Hi Sam –
Im new to treasuries and trying to understand its interest rates. When buying bills less than 1 year maturity, are you actually getting the 3 to 4 % Interest rate for a 4 week or 8 week bill? Or does it equate to only 0.2%~ or so for that 4 week period of investment?
Anthony
You’re getting a 3-4% annualized rate, but you’re only getting the amount of interest for the 4 or 8-week term.
“I enjoy being an author but it pays poorly.”
Boy howdy. I do enjoy it, but with 600k to a million new books being published in the US each year, this makes it very hard to monetize. I’ve written several novels that were very well received, and even sold more than there are people in my hometown. But my wife and I each beat six figures and I knew it would never pay any bills of consequence unless I willing to work like a dog at writing things I didn’t especially enjoy.
It’s enough for me that the few people who can still find them might still enjoy them a century after I am gone.
Sam – I’m just writing to tell you to keep doing the podcast please!! It’s awesome, you are great at it, and it’s incredibly valuable. Thank you for all your hard work.
Thank you! Will do my best! Great reviews on Apple or wherever you listen are always encouraging. Thanks
They don’t allow/provide for reviews on the Google app, but I’ll quickly use Spotify or another platform so I can leave a review.
I have allocated some funds to buy Treasury bills/bonds in the next few weeks but wondering now if waiting for the November Fed hike would be more advantageous? From what I read, it appears they will hike it at least 75-basis points again, which I assume leads to higher yield for short-term bills? I’m not looking into anything more than 2-3 years for treasuries.
Your thoughts are appreciated!
What are your thoughts on high yield BDC stocks like $ARCC?
Just found your podcast and loving it. Thank you. A lot of my cash is tied up in my SEP401k. I actually moved a lot into bonds late last year as I thought markets were about to tank and got pounded by bonds. These bond funds don’t really have a maturity date in vanguard correct? So would you still invest heavily in bonds currently as I don’t have much in a brokerage account. Thanks!
Great post Sam, I am intrigued by the Sunbelt Real estate Trust, I think that will be a great investment in 2023. I see the economic road getting even rockier after the November Elections, and that will just bring valuations of everything down. Not to mention the hurricane in Florida may hurt home values and people’s desire to want to move to Florida in the interim, but that will wane over time.
With the dollar the strongest it’s been in 20+ years, would it make sense to hold some EUR, GBP, and JPY for the next year or so until the dollar drops back down? Could be a 15-20% gain, no?
Yes, slowly going long into EUR and JPY. Confused by Sam advocating for the treasuries at 4.5% – as the fed hikes the bonds fall. Furthermore any international currency intervention will drop bonds. I don’t see bonds being a winner from here out. Proper hedging seems dipping into spy, I-bonds, and an international currency basket.
If you buy actual bonds (not bond funds), you get your principal back at maturity. So 4.5% is a solid coupon and you don’t need to go far out to get that…
Hold until maturity.
I’m 58 and my wife is 51, combined income 400k-550k depending on how good my business is doing (i.e., distributions)
No debt of any kind, including mortgage, kids just finished college (not gainfully employed….yet)
Assets:
1.4m – Company Stock (yields 30% yoy ave), restricted to sale till retirement
3.0m – brokage accounts (80% stock, 10% bonds, 5% RE, 5% cash)
0.8m – home
We spend about $150k a year living comfortably but not lavishly in northern VA, save about 200k a year overall.
I would like to retire in 2 years so continuing to save aggressively and would like to wait out the bear market.
So we have about 20k a month in positive cash flow that I am very happy to put into the market sub 3900, still having a 250k (1-2 year) cash buffer.
Biggest thing is I have no passive income streams, rentals, side hustles, except stock/bond dividends. I guess when I retire if 4.4 mill in brokerage and rates 4.0% I could put it all in treasuries and yields $176,000, which is more than our yearly expenses. Interesting….
Look at GSE bonds. Very low risk and the yields are quite a bit better than treasuries.
well said
These yield are a dream, especially if we do believe inflation will not compound any longer (and because of demographics, it will not)
This is a dream for the rentier, 1m can give you 50k risk free, 2m is 100k, guaranteed for 10Y. Not a bad deal IMHO
I just invested $30,000 in real estate crowdfunding. Not much cash left at the moment with all the upcoming year-end expenses. If the stock market dips below 3,200, I might trade in some bond funds for stock index funds.
Sam, thanks for sharing. I would have one caveat based on a certain scenario. If in your household you are cash flow positive through employment or passive income, and don’t think you need this money for 2+ years, then it is time to DCA into this market. Just go with an index fund like VTI. I would recommend 50k on the first of the month trading day over the next 5 months. I think the odds are well greater than 50% we are higher than 3750 on the SPY 10/23. Just step back and think about that. Buying now, that is all you need to outperform the 1 year return on the T-bills (4%), and taxes unless you sell. Sure we maybe lower over the next few months (hence DCA) but even so still believe we are higher than 3750 this time next year.
Think about it – we are back over 4200 almost overnight if anyone of these happens in the next 12 months:
1. Powell just hints that tightening soon ending.
2. Russia declares “victory” and begins withdrawal.
3. China opens up from lock-down.
My guess we have a 90% chance of at least one of those occurring in the next year. greater than 50% chance of all 3 occurring in next year. If all three occur we will test new market highs by end of 2023/early 2024. Think of the potential gains you are missing out on (15-25% versus 4%). We are down from 4800 to 3600 – now is not the time to go into treasuries.
Yes, there’s a good chance we will get out of this bear market within the next 12 months and stocks will be higher.
The way you invest depends on your existing asset allocation and your objectives. This is why I wrote that I am sharing how I am investing my money. This is also the reason why I shared my background in this post.
Everybody’s situation is different. Which is why this post is not relevant to everyone.
Remind me again where are you on your financial journey? Sharing background helps understand your perspective better. Thanks
I’m 58 and my wife is 51, combined income 400k-550k depending on how good my business is doing (i.e., distributions)
No debt of any kind, including mortgage, kids just finished college (not gainfully employed….yet)
Assets:
1.4m – Company Stock (yields 30% yoy ave), restricted to sale till retirement
3.0m – brokage accounts (80% stock, 10% bonds, 5% RE, 5% cash)
0.8m – home
We spend about $150k a year living comfortably but not lavishly in northern VA, save about 200k a year overall.
I would like to retire in 2 years so continuing to save aggressively and would like to wait out the bear market.
So we have about 20k a month in positive cash flow that I am very happy to put into the market sub 3900, still having a 250k (1-2 year) cash buffer.
Biggest thing is I have no passive income streams, rentals, side hustles, except stock/bond dividends. I guess when I retire if 4.4 mill in brokerage and rates 4.0% I could put it all in treasuries and yields $176,000, which is more than our yearly expenses. Interesting….
I think you can get the best of both worlds by using 3 and 6-month Treasury Bonds. I am splitting an investment between the two so that every 3 months I can evaluate the market and decide if it is time to move back to equities based on the 3 variables you outline: Fed, Russia, and China.
Maybe I miss a little upside by not going all in right away, but I like the option of having a little more information before I move.
Those can be offset by recessions though and I’m not sure #2 will send US stocks that much higher (might european stocks) and I don’t think #3 will matter that much. China’s shut downs is only a small part of inflation at this point and its only about 6% of our GDP even with 100% disruption vs 5-10% today. #1 is the one thing that could send the markets soaring but again that could be offset by rapidly declining economic backdrop (which is likely to occur with #1)
Thanks, good read. My allocations are very close to yours. My wife and I have two years of max ibonds and I recently bought 150k of laddered treasuries averaging 3.85% and another 150k in MM. I do have over 400k in mostly large cap dividend paying stocks which had been painful, but I figure it’s too late to sell now. The good news for me is I don’t need any of it now as my wife and I are both retired, all 4 kids educated and launched, and we earn around 130k in pension and SS. We have zero debt. In addition we get around 24k in dividend income which is all reinvested. The hidden benefit of a bear market is your dividends buy more stock. The other good news is it’s a great time to move depressed stock from a regular IRA to our Roth accounts. I have not started deploying cash back into the market yet, but likely will start slowly in November. Nobody know exactly when the market turn up again, but I’m quite sure it will be considerably higher in 3-5 years
I’m confident the stock market will be higher within a couple years. But nobody knows, which is why I’ve been dollar cost averaging the entire year.
If you’ve already won the game, as you already have, there’s really no need to take excess risk. And your equity exposure compared to your passive income is not large, unless you have a ton more equity exposure in non-dividend paying stocks.
Either way, it’s nice you have a lot of cash on hand to deploy!
Sam, really enjoy these types of posts about thought process in current market conditions! The upgrading real estate window of opportunity and how to deploy a large cash hoard in the current environment is content I can’t get enough of! Also, enjoy the posts about how to invest down payment money in current market conditions. Personally, evaluating and planning for a potential home upgrade, so sitting on about 120K with the idea that earning a few percent doesn’t really move the needle in my situation. That said, if sitting on 250K, I like the idea of maximizing I Bonds; however, 9.62% of 10K isn’t overly impactful. Could probably turn it into 9.62% of 40K with spouse and side businesses. Then, another 40K come January. That leaves 170K with S&P looking pretty appetizing at <3,600. However, in saving for a potential home upgrade, would probably be content just sitting on the 170K or entire 250K at the moment.
I’m glad you are enjoying these posts. They help crystallize our thoughts during times of uncertainty. When you come up with an investment game plan, it’s easier to stick to it!
Essentially, I am trading $150,000 out of the $250,000 as part of my home down payment fund. As a result, I don’t wanna take too much risk with that portion.
See: https://www.financialsamurai.com/how-to-invest-your-down-payment-if-youre-planning-to-buy-a-house/
I’ve been investing 10% of my cash in Mineral Rights (oil and gas wells) and they have done really well this year (annualized over 17% return so far after all fees.) I enjoy investing in alternate asset classes because it makes me pay more attention to the monetary policies, geopolitics, energy policies, etc. so I end up learning a lot too!
As a small business owner, I also invest extra cash into my business via more advertising and improved branding.
And, for my actively owned real estate, I’ve invested in separating out the utilities (no more master meter!) so I don’t have to pay the ridiculous utility bills anymore.
How are you investing in mineral rights? When I look on mineral exchange it’s like owners are wanting > 6 figures for rights currently paying $100 a month. That seems highly speculative.
Thanks for sharing and being so transparent! This is my first recession where I am solely an investor. I am 34 years young and phew what a ride (mentally more than anything). I’ve been fortunate to have accrue a 10m net worth thus far through mostly real estate investing. Even with all the passive income (no job here), I find myself unfulfilled at times. Watching the stock markets and crypto markets go down during this bear market gets real old as well. Looking to strengthen my spiritual soul while at the same time continuing to invest and grow my empire. Thanks for sharing your journey as you go!
Enjoy the journey and hold onto the $10 million! Once you’ve reached about $10 million, you really have maximum freedom if you want. Especially if you are single with $10 million.
Just think, if you decided to invest the entire $10 million into treasury bonds, you could earn up to $440,000 a year risk free. I’m not saying you should, but that’s the exercise you should take because opportunity cost is higher now.
See: https://www.financialsamurai.com/10-million-dollars-the-ideal-net-worth-amount-for-retirement/
I just sent my $200K to real estate syndication in Phoeniz, Arizona, where they locked in the cap rate of the interest rate to 5.10% on 124 units apartment complex. The apartment is only within a mile or a few miles from the university and the hospital that has more than 3000 employees. The loan to value on this deal is also low where investors put in a higher percentage on the down payment, they also have $1.5 M cash reserve to cover the vacancy up to 50% if bad scenario happens. I thought it is still safe to get in on this one. I have been investing in sunbelt real estate fund as you have been suggested all this time. Your thought please?
Unfortunately, I am fearful of Phoenix real estate since it went up so much since 2020.
The spread between the 5.1% cap rate in a treasury bond yielding 4.45% is small based on the risk you’re taking.
But maybe the project is fantastic with a fantastic location and a wonderful sponsor. I just don’t know the details enough to make a more informed decision.
See: https://www.financialsamurai.com/cities-most-at-risk-of-a-housing-downturn/
As far as treasury investing goes, if rates continue to go up this sort of approach does not allow you to capture upside right? Effectively would the trading price of the treasurys you purchased go down?
I take it the strategy is to hold to maturation and avoid the realm of bond trading. Is the approach you are taking, and most of your readers, is that this is like a CD where you are ‘locking in’ the rate? That said, I guess there is always the option to sell before maturation if you need the cash sooner.
Thanks for the post! This is all new to me, as I imagine most of your readers. May also check out the podcast – you may get into these question there.
You can just buy a shorter duration treasury bills and keep reinvesting if rates go higher. Yes, the plan is to hold to maturity and to keep on investing.
This post explains everything:
https://www.financialsamurai.com/treasury-bonds/
I’ve been shifting 100% of my retired parents cash flow to 6-36 month bonds (after maxing I-bonds) – at 4%+, not going to get rich, but a decent risk adjusted return, especially int he current market and uncertainty. I have an investment from last year that will bring me in an extra $40k this week and I plan on sticking nearly all of it in short term treasuries. I think testing 3200 is highly likely, but I continue to invest around $800/wk in my 401k (counting match) which is 80% into equities so probably will not look at add extra to equities at the moment. If we breach 3200 downward, I’ll start re-allocating into equities a lot more aggressively.
I did notice Fundrise had its first negative return quarter for me in 3Q, although still outperformed equities and bonds. My rentals I bought myself in the last 3 years are still my best performers with double digit cash flow annually + ~10% principal paydown on original investment even with flattening to slightly lower sale price now (I’m long term investor anyway)
Make it a mission to max out your 401(k) every year! In 10 years you will wake up and marvel at how much more money there is. It will surprise you on the upside IMO.
I’m focusing on reducing debt now interest rates are higher and meeting the capital calls from venture funds…
$250K in cash is not that much when you have $5M or more in total assets. In percentage term, it’s only 5% of total assets. So, I would keep 100% in treasuries in this case.
I rencently built a small cash position (around 5% of my total assets). Never had any in 25 years of investing. I always thought I would lose this money to inflation. But I realize today, having cash is more of a necessity than an luxury. When times like this happens it’s much more conforting to know you will be ok no matter what happens. And the cash gives you the optionality to take advantage of bad market conditions.
The reason I would still wait right now is I would like to assess how companies are impacted by the recession with the coming quarterly reports in Oct/Nov. The other reason is I would like to know when the Fed will stop rising interest rates. As long as they are rising rates, there is no rush to buy other investments.
I expect we may still get bad news in the coming months. But the recession may not be as bad as investors think. So, we may have a “green light” from companies and the Fed sooner rather than later.
Time to get ready !
Where did you get $5M or more in assets? That’s so arbitrary.
What is your asset count?
I agree about waiting to see earnings before buying stocks. Can’t be very good.
Yes, that was an arbitrary number, for the example. My assets are much lower, so $250K would be too large as a cash position. For Warren Buffett, $250K cash would be too low – he would not be able to operate his businesses day to day.
Everything is relative in finance. That’s why I prefer to think everything in term of percentage.
I still can’t get over the cash flow aspect
My mortgage rate is 3% but my principal pay down is 3% as well
So total 6% cash drain per month
This is after tax so I would have to earn 8%
Cover this
What am I missing?
Fyi love you writing
Great article. I’ve deployed some $$ into USOI. It’s current dividend yield is just over 40%. Pays out monthly and some months the dividend is enough to cover our mortgage. Thoughts on these types of investments?
Thanks. Be careful of contango. They can be traded/held for the short-term. But long term, they tend to continuously fade.
How many times can you say ‘therefore’ in one article?
This article: “Hold my beer.”
You wrote ‘therefore’ four times in a 2,200 word article. That’s at least one too many.
I’m not able to contribute to the topic of this post, so I need to criticize your usage of the word. At the same time, I haven’t published anything online because it takes work.
I have more fun being part of the Internet Grammar Police.
No problem. Thanks for your feedback. It does sometimes feel scary to share your thoughts and opinions publicly. But the reward outweighs the criticism. Writing helps crystallize your thoughts and helps you take action.
Getting writing feedback is always welcome, so keep it up. You may enjoy this post: The Internet Retirement Police: Who They Are And Why They Exist
Read Sam’s book and you will see what a fantastic author he truly is, so give him a break and get a hobby or something.
I bet you are fun to be around at parties
Staying in the market. Weekly cash secure puts and covered calls 0.1-0.3 Delta at 0.3-0.5% portfolio value while nibbling away at my favorite stocks. Maxed out I bonds at the 9.62% rate and will do so for my wife and son as well. They reset every year so can buy more in January. Made modest much needed home improvements that generally add value i.e. new irrigation system. Before end of year will max HSA contribution.
Sounds like a good play. Gotta love them I bonds. Too bad there’s the $10,000 limit per person per year. But we buy another $10,000 worth of I bonds if we open up an account for each child.
I’m just happy we can now get up to 4.4% risk free on an unlimited purchase amount in Treasuries. Which probably also means stocks are getting more enticing. This happened in 2008-2010 when 5-year CD rates were at 4% as well.
I’d be careful of getting the ibonds for your child, unless you’re gifting that money. You can’t just put in 10k and then take it out and use it for yourself. It belongs to the child at that point. I was going to do this as well but after reading up on it, it wasn’t worth the hassle and potential tax complications if I withdraw the money.
You could spend it on their daycare fees or something?
This would be amazing to raise the limit to $30,000 and codify it. https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasury-series-i-bonds-limit-51664394878
Yes, would be good!
That would be good – although with bonds in the low 4s and inflation probably heading that way within 12 months, their value is less so than 8 months ago when treasuries were sub 1% and Ibonds were at 8.12% and about to reset over 9%
if inflation reset (and it will) long term treasury may rise even more than stock in the short term
Mortgage rates have crossed 7% let alone 6% and confirming if Sam has honored his bet?
Avid reader and very surprised myself mortgage rates have gone up this high. Feel it will quickly go down once this Russian war ends/the big supply chain hold up there and more sensitively unnecessary loss of human life that has exceeded even covid now.
I have! Donated $5000 to the United Way Foundation and $2,500 to the Pomeroy Rec and Rehab center.
I, too, am surprised by how high rates have gotten. But that’s the way things go as an investor. Always an exciting thing going on.
Awesome, Sam always advocating for the most important quality in an investor: honor/integrity.
You ever meet up with investors in Presidio/SF or San Diego/La Jolla readers?
I have 10 million+ unique page views via Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool to share more outreach ideas?
Wonderful, Sam always practicing in my opinion the most important quality regarding investing and life: honor/integrity.
How best Sam can a reader/myself propose a collaboration? Have 11 million+ unique PV’s via Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool.
I am looking to take advantage of the strong dollar
and current recession in Europe. I am going to invest 500k -1.5 mil in Portuguese real estate. If you Google golden visa, investors from the United States get citizenship with a 500 K investment. And access to all the EU countries. My investment is assuming the dollar continues to get stronger, I think in the spring could be a possible time with a strong dollar and very weak economy that will open up steep discounts. I have interest in getting money outside the United States so that’s part of it. Secondly I think this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to invest in a strong dollar overseas in conjunction with a weak real estate and complete instability in Europe.
I agree about taking advantage of a strong dollar and buying real estate overseas. I hope you do and get to enjoy it!
Where in Portugal are you looking to invest? I’m of Portuguese decent and already have dual citizenship and an EU passport. My parents had a home there in the North East but sold it a couple of years back.
Currently investigating all over. Kids are home schooled so we are including this as a school project. Looking for cash flow warehouse ideally but could also buy a home that has VYBO access and built in management. Please recommend your favorite spots, and were you would not advise investing.
Thanks
Jim
The real deal in getting any EU citizenship is the universal healthcare everywhere in Europe.
Hi! I always wanted to invest money buying properties in South America: Chile, Argentina, Uruguay (I am a dual citizen) but when I start thinking about how to move the money from the US to a local bank, plus dealing with local taxes, I just forget about it. Any advice in how to move the money overseas that doesn’t cost me a huge fee? Thank you!
Just be careful with buying anything overseas or in south America. Most people forget they have different systems and laws. Your investment could be gone in a second. Don’t get greedy.
I love these financial thought experiments. I have a preference for dividend stocks (I love 100% passive income). With the market down, there are opportunities to buy great companies at a discounted price.
If I had the $250K to invest right now at this moment in my life, the majority would go into the market to build up my dividend cashflow. But that is just me. :)
Thanks for the awesome post!
There should be a “like” button :)
What stock / ETF are you accumulating on with your preference on dividends?
Living off of passive and online income, I’d probably do something similar to you. However, if I were still employed and this $$ came in as a windfall, here’s what I would do by priority:
– Pay off all consumer debt immediately
– Top off the emergency fund to 6 months’ expenses, maybe more depending on your confidence of future employment
– Boost tax-advantaged investment vehicles and 529 plans only if they are not on track to max by EOY
– Keep enough to offset maxing out your HSA (if your plan has one) if not on track to max by EOY
– If the rest of the cash can pay off your mortgage, do it. If not, DCA into your aftertax portfolio according to your current allocation over the next 6-18 months.
Thanks for sharing. Getting a $250K windfall is probably a little different than saving one’s cash flow each month to get to $250K. I do wonder how that would change how one invests the cash.
I would certainly max out all tax-advantaged accounts. But as a windfall, where I didn’t earn it, I would probably take more risks and invest 40% in stocks, 30% in real estate, and 30% in bonds instead.
Just wondering if you buy US treasures through their website or via your brokerage account?
I couldn’t do it myself for whatever reason
My brokerage account.
Great article but what about those of us who have only 3 or 4 thousand to invest on top of our emergency fund. How about an article for people like me?
This article is not investment advice for you as we have different financial situations.
But I do highlight my percentage allocation to each type of investment.
I would talk to a financial advisor or trusted friend who is well-versed in finance and knows your situation if this article does not help you think about where to invest today.
Sam, this article in addition to the tutorial on buying Treasury Bonds was both awesome and timely for me. Back in January, I moved all of my wife’s combined 401Ks into Stable Value funds thinking I would eventually put that money back to work in equities. Since these company plans do not have good fixed income options, and I now do not plan to jump right back into the equity market anytime soon, I intend to move these 401Ks to her Fidelity self-directed IRA account. Originally, I had planned to ladder up using brokered CDs but you have convinced me Treasury Bonds with slightly higher returns and the advantage of being tax-free at the State level are a better option.
Thank you for all of the great advice. You certainly have paid me back in spades for the investment I made in your book ;)
I thought about locking in at 4.4% for one year, but the banks have been giving me 3.5-4.25% for 120 day periods in regular savings accounts without having to lock in. My current offer expires at the end of January.
I’m working a part time job now which is adding more all the time. I will be taking 4-5 months off though for an unpaid maternity leave starting in November.
So that is why I’m leaning toward staying liquid at this time.
I’m in a similar situation with a different dollar amount then you. I’ve put 70 percent into treasuries, CD’S, and muni bonds ranging from 3 months to 4.5 years. I’m putting 25 percent into equities. I’ve bought some so far but the remaining is on autopilot. I Have buy orders in when or if the S&P hits 3600, 3400, 3200 and 3000. The remaining 5 percent I’m buying whiskey as a investment. Doing my diligence there are very wide price ranges for certain limited edition whiskeys and when I feel like I’m getting a good price I’ve been buying a few bottles. I got my very first Pappy Van Winkle 13 year old a couple days ago!
Thanks, Bill
Thank you for the post.
One question – Venture Debt as an asset class is not easily available to most investors. Any alternatives in your mind (for a similar risk/return profile)?
Stock market is down >20%…every penny invested goes straight into VTI. Don’t see the sense of not investing in this bear market aggressively if you are under the age of 50.
Hi Sam, Avid reader of your blog since many years. you put things into succinct learning bytes for readers to absorb!
How do you get in touch with the VC firms like Kleiner perkins? We as a group are planning to deploy $1M-$2M during this downturn into VC. best companies are funded during the downturn since all hype and easy money is not there to fund garbage.
Appreciate if I can get an intro to these VC firms.
No problem! You just have to build relationships and be a good LP. If you do and are, then you usually get to continue investing. Kleiner is doing well with Figma exit recently and now holding Rippling, which is worth $12 billion.
If you have $1 – $2 million to invest, you should be able to gain access to top tier VCs, even though they are focused on institutional investors. Have you tried reaching out yet?
Just curious, but have you read my book yet? thanks
It is easy to join syndicates on AngelList. I am doing that and also invest with a local relatively small firm here in Australia with so far a good track record.
I paid down mortgage debt earlier in the year, which felt great. I’ve been sitting on cash for a while since but am slowly deploying it. It’s very insightful and helpful to read your thought exercises on how you are investing your cash. You’re very thorough and methodical! thanks
I’m continuing to DCA mainly in Vanguard’s Growth ETF and a little bit in Fundrise’s Growth REIT. Each time I log on though, it’s painful seeing my account balance!
As someone heading into 40 and planning to continue working until traditional retirement age, I’d still consider myself in the growth stage a few years away from the balanced stage. So even though stocks are more volatile, I fee like they have more upside, at least at the moment.
I feel your pain. It’s good to just keep on DCAing if you can.
What’s more impressive is your positive outlook on being willing to work a day job into your 60s. You’re blessed to have found something you enjoy doing. And that’s great!
Sam, I enjoy your material. Are your kids going to have any “skin” in their education, etc costs? We have 15 grandchildren. The 4 oldest are working in addition to involvement in school activities. The 3 seniors are trying to attain scholarships and are at jobs in addition to school activities. Sports involvement is a very big deal in our family as it should be. Late practices, getting on a bus at 5:00 AM and being a teammate build a work and toughness attitude. 14 of 15 are in sports. One is 15 months. As for my college education I got $50 from my Dad, once, and repaid him 2 weeks later. I worked during breaks, school year and in summers along with some borrowed money. Sam, raise kids that are real kids! For you and your spouse that will be a mighty goal-maybe not possible? My $0.02 cents worth. Best to you. Ross
Ok boomer.
Very cool. What do you and your children do now?
They will get $0, not the $50 you got your dad, which sounds like a lot more in today’s dollars.
Instead, they will work since a very young age to appreciate hard work and the value of money. That’s the great thing about opening up Roth IRAs for them and having a business they can work at.
There is no better education than actual work experience while growing up. Utilizing what is learned in the classroom in real life is priceless. They will learn about marketing, communications, public relations, finance, business development, and branding.
Might have to make them walk 5 miles in the rain as well. Builds character!
Related: The Importance Of Being Uncomfortable For Personal Growth
Thanks for sharing. This strategy mirrors a lot like mine…have you looked at SDIRA to invest in alternative investments with AltoIRA? I’m thinking of getting into art, farm and RE etc in this way.
I haven’t. But Farmland and Art have outperformed as well and have historically been solid alternative investments.